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Lack of Faith


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#1 vegas55

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 05:42 PM

What Is Marrone telling us about his faith in his #1draft pick and the most important player on his team?  He chooses to take a shot on a very long field goal instead of going for it on fourth and three from the 36. And then, just needing a first down to seal the win, he runs it three straight times up the middle. This on a team that has no shot at the playoffs.  So it's either he has zero faith in his QB or he ignores every analytics stat out there.  Or both.

I define a train wreck as a team that needs a fumble at the half yard line and a interception in the end zone when the QB is trying to throw it out of bounds just to secure a win against a banged up 4-9 loser of a team. Nice job Doug. And accountability? Your special teams commits several stupid penalties every single week!!! Just when does that get corrected?

#2 mrags

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 05:48 PM

"Ignores every anylitics stat out there"????

The anylitics of his going for it on 4th and 3 BS taking a shot at a FG and points would show that your wrong. When you can take points, you take the points. The anylitics on the run on 3rd down would also prove you are incorrect. You take the run and kill the clock when you have the lead with minimal time left and your opponent doesn't have all their timeouts.

Regardless, I agree with both of your points that we should have went for it in 4th and should have chosen a passing play on 3rd down. In a fan of going for the throat of the opponent instead of playing not to lose. But your take on anylitics is way off. He took the smart plays today.

#3 Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 05:56 PM

I recall years ago listening one time to a Bob Matthews show and he was ripping some team, think it was the Bill's for not going for the TD on 4th down from the 3 yard line instead they kicked a field goal.  His argument was from the 3 yard line a team easily would have a half dozen or so plays they could call that have better than a 50/50 shot at scoring the TD.  Well if from the 3 yard line a team had better than 50/50 of scoring a TD, no team out there would ever kick a PAT, they'd go for two every time and be well ahead.

#4 dezertbill

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 06:03 PM

So your saying the Bills creating turnovers is a negative???

I don't understand your logic.  What about the games in which the Bills allowed other teams to win via defensive turnovers....does that make those teams suck?

This was a nice road win for a team that needed a confidence builder.  EJ started the game like a rookie, and came through and showed the skills that had had previously displayed vs. Carolina and the Jets.

While I would agree that the 3 straight runs were a conservative, I would have only replaced the 3rd down handoff to Fred with a bootleg rollout with the TE following.  The whole team followed Fred in the hole, and it would have surprised everyone in the building and have given the Bills a greater chance to convert.

I'm also not against the FG try.  You had a guy that has the leg to make it, and he went for it to get points on the board against a struggling Jags team.  Nothing wrong with that.

#5 vegas55

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 06:13 PM

View Postmrags, on 15 December 2013 - 05:48 PM, said:

"Ignores every anylitics stat out there"????

The anylitics of his going for it on 4th and 3 BS taking a shot at a FG and points would show that your wrong. When you can take points, you take the points. The anylitics on the run on 3rd down would also prove you are incorrect. You take the run and kill the clock when you have the lead with minimal time left and your opponent doesn't have all their timeouts.

Regardless, I agree with both of your points that we should have went for it in 4th and should have chosen a passing play on 3rd down. In a fan of going for the throat of the opponent instead of playing not to lose. But your take on anylitics is way off. He took the smart plays today.

Oh I am sorry but firing away at a 54 yard field goal versus going for it on third and three violates every precept of analytics. What makes it so so much worse is that this is a team that is going nowhere. So why not ?  If you think Belichick would have kicked a field goal from there, you simply are not in tune with what's happening with winning teams.

View Postdezertbill, on 15 December 2013 - 06:03 PM, said:

So your saying the Bills creating turnovers is a negative???

I don't understand your logic.  What about the games in which the Bills allowed other teams to win via defensive turnovers....does that make those teams suck?

This was a nice road win for a team that needed a confidence builder.  EJ started the game like a rookie, and came through and showed the skills that had had previously displayed vs. Carolina and the Jets.

While I would agree that the 3 straight runs were a conservative, I would have only replaced the 3rd down handoff to Fred with a bootleg rollout with the TE following.  The whole team followed Fred in the hole, and it would have surprised everyone in the building and have given the Bills a greater chance to convert.

I'm also not against the FG try.  You had a guy that has the leg to make it, and he went for it to get points on the board against a struggling Jags team.  Nothing wrong with that.

If you think a successful formula for consistently winning in the NFL requires your opponent to fumble on the half yard line and for the opposing QB to under throw an end zone pass he is trying to throw away; well dream on.


#6 ExiledInIllinois

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 06:18 PM

Now that the season is over, it would be interesting to see the Bills play a game like that HS coach out there... Never punt and never kickoff, just onsides kicks... Oh and go for 2 each time... LoL  I would just like to see some stats pile up on 4th down tries.

Edited by ExiledInIllinois, 15 December 2013 - 06:19 PM.


#7 dezertbill

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 06:28 PM

View Postvegas55, on 15 December 2013 - 06:13 PM, said:


The formula for winning football is creating turnovers on defense and scoring points on offense.  I don't care if it's on your own 1 yard line or intercepting the other team in the endzone.  A Turnover is a turnover.

They made the plays when they had to on defense while making plays on offense to score more points than the opponent.  THAT is the formula for winning.

I get it, you don't like our coaching staff, our QB, and are going to find negatives in everything the Bills do, win or lose.

You look at positives as negatives to prove your point in your own mind...a glass half empty kind of guy.  I would rather look at the positives as positives, which in this game there were plenty to choose from, to prove my point in my own mind that I like the direction the Bills are heading in when our QB has a 105 QB rating (including a winning TD Drive), our running game rushes for 200, and our defense gulps up sacks and turnovers.

So while I enjoy this win, you can be mad.  No worries.

Edited by dezertbill, 15 December 2013 - 06:29 PM.


#8 ExiledInIllinois

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 06:31 PM

Again, the season's over once again with a bunch of games to play... What's to enjoy, win or lose?  Going on 14 years now.  Most all teams out there would have beat the Bills today.  No way they hang on.

#9 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 10:09 PM

View Postvegas55, on 15 December 2013 - 05:42 PM, said:

What Is Marrone telling us about his faith in his #1draft pick and the most important player on his team?  He chooses to take a shot on a very long field goal instead of going for it on fourth and three from the 36. And then, just needing a first down to seal the win, he runs it three straight times up the middle. This on a team that has no shot at the playoffs.  So it's either he has zero faith in his QB or he ignores every analytics stat out there.  Or both.

I define a train wreck as a team that needs a fumble at the half yard line and a interception in the end zone when the QB is trying to throw it out of bounds just to secure a win against a banged up 4-9 loser of a team. Nice job Doug. And accountability? Your special teams commits several stupid penalties every single week!!! Just when does that get corrected?

And when Chan Gailey didn't kick a 50+ yard FG then he didn't have faith in Lindell.  It's always something.  Whatever you did, you should have done the other thing

PTR

Edited by PromoTheRobot, 15 December 2013 - 10:10 PM.


#10 mannc

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 10:37 PM

View PostEd_Formerly_of_Roch, on 15 December 2013 - 05:56 PM, said:

Well if from the 3 yard line a team had better than 50/50 of scoring a TD, no team out there would ever kick a PAT, they'd go for two every time and be well ahead.
Well, if you think all (or even most) NFL coaches make decisions like that based purely on statistical probabilities, you could not be more wrong.  I don't know what the actual statistical probabilities would dictate in that situation, but the fact that most coaches would not go for it there says nothing about whether or not it's a good idea.

Edited by mannc, 15 December 2013 - 10:38 PM.


#11 Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 11:28 PM

So if it's not based on statistics then what does it have to do with?  Do tell??

View Postmannc, on 15 December 2013 - 10:37 PM, said:

Well, if you think all (or even most) NFL coaches make decisions like that based purely on statistical probabilities, you could not be more wrong.  I don't know what the actual statistical probabilities would dictate in that situation, but the fact that most coaches would not go for it there says nothing about whether or not it's a good idea.


#12 mannc

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 02:22 AM

View PostEd_Formerly_of_Roch, on 15 December 2013 - 11:28 PM, said:

So if it's not based on statistics then what does it have to do with?  Do tell??
In large part, conventional wisdom and fear of being second-guessed.

#13 vegas55

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 10:16 AM

View Postdezertbill, on 15 December 2013 - 06:28 PM, said:



The formula for winning football is creating turnovers on defense and scoring points on offense.  I don't care if it's on your own 1 yard line or intercepting the other team in the endzone.  A Turnover is a turnover.

They made the plays when they had to on defense while making plays on offense to score more points than the opponent.  THAT is the formula for winning.

I get it, you don't like our coaching staff, our QB, and are going to find negatives in everything the Bills do, win or lose.

You look at positives as negatives to prove your point in your own mind...a glass half empty kind of guy.  I would rather look at the positives as positives, which in this game there were plenty to choose from, to prove my point in my own mind that I like the direction the Bills are heading in when our QB has a 105 QB rating (including a winning TD Drive), our running game rushes for 200, and our defense gulps up sacks and turnovers.

So while I enjoy this win, you can be mad.  No worries.


Well I think you missed my point entirely. Overall, I like Marrone, and think he is a good fit for Buffalo. But it is disappointing when we see so many penalties on special teams, a situation that has not improved as the season goes on.

Obviously turnovers are a good thing. My point was that in measuring a teams progress, it's disappointing that in order to beat an injury depleted 4-12 team, we need an absolute fluke of a turnover at the half yard line ( yes a fluke, it almost never happens in the NFL and was not caused by pressure defense). Progress is beating a quality team, the type of team that does not routinely make the dumb mistakes the Jags did yesterday. So yes a win is nice, but that was not a win you can look at and say the Bills are making progress. Fluke fumbles at the half yard line are not a formula for success, and with the playoffs out of the question, firm signs of improvement are actually more important than wins. And squeaking by the pathetic Jags in the way they did is not an indicator of substantial progress.  


#14 Dragonborn10

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 10:32 AM

View PostPromoTheRobot, on 15 December 2013 - 10:09 PM, said:



And when Chan Gailey didn't kick a 50+ yard FG then he didn't have faith in Lindell.  It's always something.  Whatever you did, you should have done the other thing

PTR
Yeah I thought Carpenter was the good part of the season...

#15 The Big Cat

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 10:35 AM

I remember when they decided not to count the Giants' second Super Bowl because they only got there after a Forty Niner muffed a punt.

I also remember how everyone gave us the win in the Chiefs game because, let's face it, Tuel should have found SJ in the endzone for the score.

#16 CodeMonkey

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 12:16 PM

View Postmannc, on 15 December 2013 - 10:37 PM, said:

Well, if you think all (or even most) NFL coaches make decisions like that based purely on statistical probabilities, you could not be more wrong.  I don't know what the actual statistical probabilities would dictate in that situation, but the fact that most coaches would not go for it there says nothing about whether or not it's a good idea.

View PostEd_Formerly_of_Roch, on 15 December 2013 - 11:28 PM, said:

So if it's not based on statistics then what does it have to do with?  Do tell??

View Postmannc, on 16 December 2013 - 02:22 AM, said:

In large part, conventional wisdom and fear of being second-guessed.
You can think of "conventional wisdom" as statistics-without-the-math.  You know from experience what generally works best without the actual numbers being crunched.
But thinking that NFL head coaches base a lot of their decisions on fear of being second guessed is asinine.

Edited by CodeMonkey, 16 December 2013 - 12:16 PM.


#17 mannc

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 01:03 PM

View PostCodeMonkey, on 16 December 2013 - 12:16 PM, said:

You can think of "conventional wisdom" as statistics-without-the-math.  You know from experience what generally works best without the actual numbers being crunched.
But thinking that NFL head coaches base a lot of their decisions on fear of being second guessed is asinine.
What is "statistics without the math"?  Sounds like garbage to me.  And, actually, thinking that many NFL head coaches DON'T base a lot of their decisions on fear of being second-guessed is asinine.  Every Sunday I see coaches make dozens of decisions that fly in the face of analytics and statistical win probabilities, such as punting on fourth and short, kicking field goals on 4th and goal from the 1 or 2 yard line and failing to go for two point conversions when it's merited.  Usually these poor decisions are praised by the morons in the booth who comment that the coach is doing the smart thing by "taking the points" or that the coach is "playing the percentages" when in fact he is doing the opposite.  A great example was a couple years ago in the Colts-Patriots game when Belichick went for the first down on 4th and 2 from his own 30 while holding a lead late in the game.  He was crucified for the decision, even though statistically it was absolutely the correct decision, because it was so contrary to the conventional wisdom.  Few other coaches would have had the confidence/balls to do what Belichick did and, as it turned out Belichick was massively second-guessed.  If he had simply done the "safe" thing and punted and Manning marched down the field and scored anyway, no one would have said a word about Belichick's decision; they would have just talked about how great Manning was or how bad the Pats' defense was.

#18 JPS

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 04:32 AM

Good kicker