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Possible Results and Options from an Open QB competition in 2014


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#1 BackInDaDay

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 10:25 PM

There have been discussions on the Wall about adding a rookie QB (let’s call him ‘X’) in the draft, and having an open competition through the camps and pre-season to decide the opening day depth chart. I've stated a number of times that i believe this would be counter productive to maximizing our first round draft pick’s potential as a starting QB.  My only defense of this has been my intuition, so i figured i'd work it up, to see if there’s any validity to this. I do this, because I agree that there should be no harm in drafting another prospect, and letting the best man win.  So then why do I feel so strongly that this would be a mistake? For those of you who have the patience to indulge this somewhat tedious analysis - and for those who could care less :rolleyes: – hope you all have a Happy New Year..  and whoever our starting QB is, does too!

First off, I think Lewis has shown the coaches and GM enough to let them release Kolb. Considering the youth we'll have in our 2014 QBs, I’m thinking the best Kolb could do under the circumstances, would be unseating the 'veteran' Lewis as backup.  But I doubt that's possible as Lewis now has the advantage of actually executing the offense to some level of success. So I’ve left Kolb out of the competition.

Another premise I’m going on is that we wouldn't draft anyone who doesn't have the potential to make Tuel expendable. Remember that we carried Tuel on the active roster because our coaches were impressed enough by him that they were afraid someone would steal him from the practice squad (PS). This may, or may not, be the case next season with our #3 (and possible #4).  So I’ve left the options open - to carry just 2 active + 1 PS QB, or, 3 active + 1 PS QB (even though using one of the 8 PS slots on a 4th QB seems unrealistic).

While we're on the subject...  I don't believe Lewis has any PS eligibility left - so if we keep him, he has to be on the active roster.  The options given below were derived with Lewis’s lack of PS eligibility in mind.

Another reality to keep in mind, is that barring injuries to the starter or the backup, the 3rd string QB gets no reps during the season. There just isn’t enough time.

Now, before getting into the mock-up results, I’ll summarize what options I’ve come up with - by projected starting QB.

From what I can see, the best scenarios include Lewis as the backup to one of the three younger projects. The trouble there is that – barring injuries - whoever comes in 3rd or 4th will get no practice reps during the season, and will have no chance to reach their potential.  This is why I still feel that adding a rookie QB to the mix will result in at least one of our young QBs being short-changed, while creating a possible scenario where our backup has 1 year or less experience.

I’ll let the reader complete their opinions of the given options with their knowledge of where they believe the organization prioritizes a player’s origins – such as whether he was drafted (and what round), undrafted, or picked from the PS.  For those of you who believe this influences the decision making, where rookie X is drafted may skew the options.  Personally, I don’t believe any option that involves the release of Manuel or a ‘high draft pick’ X is realistic, but Darwin would have insisted.

  Manuel will get the majority of the practice reps in all 6 situations where he wins the competition.

o   if Lewis wins backup role,

§  we’ll have a solid backup

§  Tuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  X will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

o  if Tuel wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with very little experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  X will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Lewis will be released

o  if X wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with no experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  Tuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Lewis will be released


· Lewis will get the majority of the practice reps in all 6 situations where he wins the competition.

o  if Manuel wins backup role,

§  we’ll have backup with a little experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  Tuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  X will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

o  if Tuel wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with very little experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  Manuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  X will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

o  if X wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with no experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  Manuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Tuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS


· Tuel will get the majority of the practice reps in all 6 situations where he wins the competition.

o  if Lewis wins backup role,

§  we’ll have a solid backup

§  Manuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  X will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

o  if Manuel wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with a little experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  X will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Lewis will be released

o  if X wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with no experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  Manuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Lewis will be released


· X will get the majority of the practice reps in all 6 situations where he wins the competition.

o  if Lewis wins backup role,

§  we’ll have a solid backup

§  Manuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Tuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

o  if Manuel wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with little experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  Tuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Lewis will be released

o  if Tuel wins the backup role,

§  we’ll have a backup with very little experience

§  he’ll get some practice reps

§  Manuel will get no practice reps and may be released or taken from PS

§  Lewis will be released



These are the options I believe the coaches and GM might have, given the various results from a 4-way QB competition involving Manuel, Lewis, Tuel, and rookie X.

result 1:
1 - Manuel
2 - Lewis
3 - Tuel
4 - X

options 1:
1 - Manuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Lewis is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Tuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Tuel takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a - X can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - X is released

result 2:
1 - Manuel
2 - Lewis
3 - X
4 - Tuel

options 2:
1 - Manuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Lewis is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - X takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps  
3b - X takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Tuel is released

result 3:
1 - Manuel
2 - Tuel
3 - Lewis
4 - X

options 3:
1 - Manuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Tuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Lewis takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Lewis is released
4a - X can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - X is released if 3a occurs
4c - X can take #3 QB slot on active roster if 3b occurs - will get no practice reps
4d - X can take a PS slot if 3b occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps

result 4:
1 - Manuel
2 - Tuel
3 - X
4 - Lewis

options 4:
1 - Manuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Tuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - X takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - X can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4 - Lewis is released

result 5:
1 - Manuel
2 - X
3 - Lewis
4 - Tuel

options 5:
1 - Manuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - X is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Lewis takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Lewis is released
4a - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Tuel is released if 3a occurs
4c - Tuel can take #3 QB slot on active roster if 3b occurs - will get no practice reps
4d - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3b occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps

result 6:
1 - Manuel
2 - X
3 - Tuel
4 - Lewis

options 6:
1 - Manuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - X is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Tuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Tuel can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4 - Lewis is released

result 7:
1 - Lewis
2 - Manuel
3 - Tuel
4 - X

options 7:
1 - Lewis is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Manuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Tuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Tuel takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a - X can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - X is released

result 8:
1 - Lewis
2 - Manuel
3 - X
4 - Tuel

options 8:
1 - Lewis is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Manuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - X takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps  
3b - X takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Tuel is released

result 9:
1 - Lewis
2 - Tuel
3 - Manuel
4 - X

options 9:
1 - Lewis is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Tuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Manuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Manuel takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4a - X can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - X is released if 3b occurs

result 10:
1 - Lewis
2 - Tuel
3 - X
4 - Manuel

options 10:
1 - Lewis is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Tuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - X takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - X can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4a - Manuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Manuel is released if 3b occurs

result 11:
1 - Lewis
2 - X
3 - Manuel
4 - Tuel

options 11:
1 - Lewis is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - X is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Manuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Manuel can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4a - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Tuel is released if 3b occurs

result 12:
1 - Lewis
2 - X
3 - Tuel
4 - Manuel

options 12:
1 – Lewis is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - X is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Tuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Tuel can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4a - Manuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Manuel is released if 3b occurs

result 13:
1 - Tuel
2 - Lewis
3 - Manuel
4 - X

options 13:
1 - Tuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Lewis is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Manuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Manuel takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a - X can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - X is released

result 14:
1 - Tuel
2 - Lewis
3 - X
4 - Manuel

options 14:
1 - Tuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Lewis is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - X takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps  
3b - X takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a - Manuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Manuel is released

result 15:
1 - Tuel
2 - Manuel
3 - Lewis
4 - X

options 15:
1 - Tuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Manuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Lewis takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Lewis is released
4a - X can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - X is released if 3a occurs
4c - X can take #3 QB slot on active roster if 3b occurs - will get no practice reps
4d - X can take a PS slot if 3b occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps

result 16:
1 - Tuel
2 - Manuel
3 - X
4 - Lewis

options 16:
1 - Tuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Manuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - X takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - X can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4 - Lewis is released

result 17:
1 - Tuel
2 - X
3 - Lewis
4 - Manuel

options 17:
1 - Tuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - X is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Lewis takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Lewis is released
4a - Manuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Manuel is released if 3a occurs
4c - Manuel can take #3 QB slot on active roster if 3b occurs - will get no practice reps
4d - Manuel can take a PS slot if 3b occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps

result 18:
1 - Tuel
2 - X
3 - Manuel
4 - Lewis

options 18:
1 - Tuel is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - X is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Manuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Manuel can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4 - Lewis is released

result 19:
1 - X
2 - Lewis
3 - Tuel
4 - Manuel

options 19:
1 - X is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Lewis is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Tuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Tuel takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a – Manuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b – Manuel is released

result 20:
1 - X
2 - Lewis
3 - Manuel
4 - Tuel

options 20:
1 - X is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Lewis is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Manuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps  
3b - Manuel takes #3 QB slot but is placed on PS where we risk losing him - will get no practice reps  
4a - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Tuel is released

result 21:
1 - X
2 - Tuel
3 - Lewis
4 - Manuel

options 21:
1 - X is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Tuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Lewis takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Lewis is released
4a - Manuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Manuel is released if 3a occurs
4c - Manuel can take #3 QB slot on active roster if 3b occurs - will get no practice reps
4d - Manuel can take a PS slot if 3b occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps

result 22:
1 - X
2 - Tuel
3 - Manuel
4 - Lewis

options 22:
1 - X is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Tuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Manuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Manuel can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4 - Lewis is released

result 23:
1 - X
2 - Manuel
3 - Lewis
4 - Tuel

options 23:
1 - X is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Manuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Lewis takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Lewis is released
4a - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3a occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4b - Tuel is released if 3a occurs
4c - Tuel can take #3 QB slot on active roster if 3b occurs - will get no practice reps
4d - Tuel can take a PS slot if 3b occurs, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps

result 24:
1 - X
2 - Manuel
3 - Tuel
4 - Lewis

options 24:
1 - X is starter - will get majority of practice reps
2 - Manuel is backup - will get limited practice reps
3a - Tuel takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps
3b - Tuel can take a PS slot, and we'll risk losing him - will get no practice reps
4 - Lewis is released

#2 MarkyMannn

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 10:51 PM

:blink:

#3 26CornerBlitz

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 10:56 PM

WTH?!? :unsure:

#4 Bronc24

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 11:02 PM

Did you used to work for Enron?

#5 Mr. WEO

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 11:04 PM

This is the manic phase of bipolar disorder.

#6 TakeYouToTasker

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 11:09 PM

Quality post.

#7 BackInDaDay

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 11:37 PM

View PostMr. WEO, on 01 January 2014 - 11:04 PM, said:

This is the manic phase of bipolar disorder.

possibly, or perhaps it's just an attempt to validate one's intuitive conclusion to a results oriented 'game' with a comprehensive matrix of possibilities.

or maybe it's the damn champagne talking. :flirt:  

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 01 January 2014 - 11:19 PM, said:

This is kind of amazing.

Serious question.

Do you write code for a living?

currently mentoring a new generation of mainframe developers in application design, but yes.. i evolved ( or i like to think i have) from the swampy pits of mouth-breathin', knuckle-draggin', mainframe programmers.  :D

#8 Hopeful

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 11:50 PM

I know that a lot of work and thought went into this, which should be respected

It reminds me so much of this, though


Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right... and who is dead.
Vizzini: But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You've made your decision then?
Vizzini: Not remotely. Because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.
Man in Black: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.
Vizzini: Wait till I get going! Now, where was I?
Man in Black: Australia.
Vizzini: Yes, Australia. And you must have suspected I would have known the powder's origin, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You're just stalling now.
Vizzini: You'd like to think that, wouldn't you? You've beaten my giant, which means you're exceptionally strong, so you could've put the poison in your own goblet, trusting on your strength to save you, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But, you've also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the poison as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work.
Vizzini: IT HAS WORKED! YOU'VE GIVEN EVERYTHING AWAY! I KNOW WHERE THE POISON IS!
Man in Black: Then make your choice.
Vizzini: I will, and I choose - What in the world can that be?
Man in Black: [Vizzini gestures up and away from the table. Roberts looks. Vizzini swaps the goblets]
Man in Black: What? Where? I don't see anything.
Vizzini: Well, I- I could have sworn I saw something. No matter. First, let's drink. Me from my glass, and you from yours.
Man in Black, Vizzini: [Vizzini and the Man in Black drink]
Man in Black: You guessed wrong.
Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...[Vizzini stops suddenly, his smile frozen on his face and falls to the ground dead]

#9 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 01 January 2014 - 11:51 PM

I don't have the mental endurance for your exercise but I'm serious when I say that I'm very impressed.

:worthy: :worthy: :worthy:

#10 BackInDaDay

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:02 AM

View PostHopeful, on 01 January 2014 - 11:50 PM, said:

I know that a lot of work and thought went into this, which should be respected

It reminds me so much of this, though


Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right... and who is dead.
Vizzini: But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You've made your decision then?
Vizzini: Not remotely. Because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.
Man in Black: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.
Vizzini: Wait till I get going! Now, where was I?
Man in Black: Australia.
Vizzini: Yes, Australia. And you must have suspected I would have known the powder's origin, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You're just stalling now.
Vizzini: You'd like to think that, wouldn't you? You've beaten my giant, which means you're exceptionally strong, so you could've put the poison in your own goblet, trusting on your strength to save you, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But, you've also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the poison as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Man in Black: You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work.
Vizzini: IT HAS WORKED! YOU'VE GIVEN EVERYTHING AWAY! I KNOW WHERE THE POISON IS!
Man in Black: Then make your choice.
Vizzini: I will, and I choose - What in the world can that be?
Man in Black: [Vizzini gestures up and away from the table. Roberts looks. Vizzini swaps the goblets]
Man in Black: What? Where? I don't see anything.
Vizzini: Well, I- I could have sworn I saw something. No matter. First, let's drink. Me from my glass, and you from yours.
Man in Black, Vizzini: [Vizzini and the Man in Black drink]
Man in Black: You guessed wrong.
Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...[Vizzini stops suddenly, his smile frozen on his face and falls to the ground dead]

:rolleyes:
well if we have to go there, i think as Bills fans we might better relate to this..


#11 BackInDaDay

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:18 AM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 01 January 2014 - 11:51 PM, said:

I don't have the mental endurance for your exercise but I'm serious when I say that I'm very impressed.

:worthy: :worthy: :worthy:

appreciate that, but i was just hoping to prove that adding another young prospect to the existing group of young prospects has the potential to negatively impact the development of one or more of them. how many more years will we be subjected to second-guessing our favorite team's actions?  someone smarter than me could 'weight' the results by other attributes to add more realistic definition to the options. bottom line.. with this many pups, there's no way to guess who's best in show. yet we can't keep them all.

Edited by BackInDaDay, 02 January 2014 - 12:19 AM.


#12 Max997

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:22 AM

Where do ppl get the time or energy to write something like this

24 options, seriously? Were you jacked up on something when you did this?

#13 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:24 AM

View PostMax997, on 02 January 2014 - 12:22 AM, said:

Where do ppl get the time or energy to write something like this

24 options, seriously? Were you jacked up on something when you did this?

Be advised that there's a chance that his reply to you will take the form of a complex algorithm.

:)

#14 Dibs

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:40 AM

I think the OP could have easily summarized things.....

Winner of the QB comp - will get majority of practice reps
2nd - will get limited practice reps
3rd - takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps(if it is so and so he will yada yada)
4th - released(or PS if it is blah, blah etc)

24 listings of results and options all neatly packaged into one smart summary.

#15 BackInDaDay

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:41 AM

View PostMax997, on 02 January 2014 - 12:22 AM, said:

Where do ppl get the time or energy to write something like this

24 options, seriously? Were you jacked up on something when you did this?

here's the deal.. we have 3 young QBs going into 2014 with may fans suggesting we draft a 4th and have an open competition among them.  all i've done was take that proposal to what i believe may be it's possible conclusions.. many of which end with either our 2013 1st round pick, or our 2014 pick getting no reps at their position.  i think our situation is best served by committing to Manuel in 2014, and spending our draft picks elsewhere.

by the way sport, you're the one with almost 6K posts :rolleyes:

#16 Hopeful

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:46 AM

View PostBackInDaDay, on 02 January 2014 - 12:18 AM, said:

appreciate that, but i was just hoping to prove that adding another young prospect to the existing group of young prospects has the potential to negatively impact the development of one or more of them.

I think this is the bottom line, and thoughtful folks here realize it and try to gently explain whenever some enthusiastic human chimes in with "why don't we just bring in (insert name of FA or tradebait du jour) to compete, what can it cost us, why not?"  Offensive practice reps are finite, there are only so many of them, and they have to get divided between all the QB one is seriously trying to develop, to the detriment of the # of reps given to the eventual starter.

If we draft a prospect, we would do so because we believe he has higher potential than Tuel, and Tuel would go. Likewise, if we try to bring in a veteran FA, I would expect we would do so because we believe he has higher potential than Lewis, and Lewis's reps would drop/he would be released.

So we would still likely be dividing reps among 3 QB, and the draftee would have to show something in rookie minicamp and OTAs to earn #1 or 2 reps.

I believe this is essentially what we did with Kolb and TJax.  I think we were looking for this year's starter while EJ was inked in as #2.  They didn't want to divide #1 reps between 3 guys, so they showed TJax the door as soon as Kolb looked better in shorts.  Alas, that plan (like Kolb) didn't survive the first encounter with the Enemy Bath Mat much less the Enemy.

Edited by Hopeful, 02 January 2014 - 12:50 AM.


#17 Doug Flutie Band

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:51 AM

i like

Manuel
Lewis
X

or

Manuel
X
Lewis

#18 DC Tom

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:52 AM

You made a mistake.

#19 BackInDaDay

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:53 AM

View PostDibs, on 02 January 2014 - 12:40 AM, said:

I think the OP could have easily summarized things.....

Winner of the QB comp - will get majority of practice reps
2nd - will get limited practice reps
3rd - takes #3 QB slot on active roster - will get no practice reps(if it is so and so he will yada yada)
4th - released(or PS if it is blah, blah etc)

24 listings of results and options all neatly packaged into one smart summary.

that is a concise summary, but the intelligence in any analysis lies in the details.
how often does our 1st round pick from 2013 get a chance to prepare during the season and refine his game?
what are the possibilities that both he and an additional high draft pick in 2014 can receive the attention necessary to grow to their potential?
what scenarios leave us with a backup that has either 1 year, or no experience playing QB in the NFL?

my worst fear from looking at the Bills O this year, is that our OC approaches his work with the same disdain you view this.. but hey, different strokes..

#20 HoF Watkins

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Posted 02 January 2014 - 12:55 AM

View PostMr. WEO, on 01 January 2014 - 11:04 PM, said:

This is the manic phase of bipolar disorder.

hahahahaha!

I don't expect a new high draft pick QB to be brought in. But if EJM is "the guy", I think he would get enough reps to show it next training camp, even if he had to fight off a new prospect. And if EJM isn't the guy (and it's hurting the development of the new guy, SO WHAT? You are still further ahead than if you waited a whole season to draft a different guy.


I don't care if Lewis and Tuel don't get developed, at least one would be gone, and the other would be 3rd behind EJM.

Edited by Marauder'sMicro, 02 January 2014 - 01:09 AM.