Jump to content


Example of why we should not throw in the towel on Manuel... yet.


  • Please log in to reply
86 replies to this topic

#1 Coach55

Coach55

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 637 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 11:58 AM

Perfect example of why we shouldn't give on Manuel so soon is Drew Brees (I am not saying that Manuel is Drew Brees by any way, shape or form, but a comparison can be made).

In recent years, there have been a lot of "NFL ready" quarterbacks coming out of college, but often times NFL QB's take years to develop.  Take a look at Brees.  His rookie year (late 2nd round pick), he only played 1 game which he didn't start, so let's use his 2nd season as effectively his rookie year.  

He started 16 games, went 8-8, hitting 60.8% of his passes, 17 TDs, 16 Ints and a passer rating of 76.9

The following season. he went 2-9, hitting 57.6% of his passes, 11TDs, 15 Ints and a passer rating of 67.5

Everyone in San Diego at this point basically threw in the towel and they drafted Philip Rivers.  The following year, Brees goes on to the Pro-bowl and has since been there 7 more times and may even be a HOF'er.

Manuel's stats are not stellar by any means, but realistically not too far off of Brees's in his first year.
4-6, 58.8%, 11-9 and 77.7.  The guy is 23, got thrown to wolves and had to deal with a series of non-serious knee injuries. Give him a full training camp and the keys to the car and see what he can do.

#2 zow2

zow2

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,189 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 12:19 PM

I don't think many people are throwing in the towel on EJ. Like Whaley said, we all expect good progression from year 1 to year 2. We'd better see it. Would be nice if EJ could sprinkle in a few 300 yard passing games in the mix like Drew Brees did in his 2nd season.

If the Bills see a QB in the draft that they love, and he falls to them, I wouldn't be upset to have them pull the trigger in order to hedge their bets on EJ. You have to get the QB position right or the organization will spin their wheels indefinitely.

#3 Buftex

Buftex

    JIM KELLY: the reason for the seasons!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,440 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 01:04 PM

View PostCoach55, on 06 January 2014 - 11:58 AM, said:

Perfect example of why we shouldn't give on Manuel so soon is Drew Brees (I am not saying that Manuel is Drew Brees by any way, shape or form, but a comparison can be made).

In recent years, there have been a lot of "NFL ready" quarterbacks coming out of college, but often times NFL QB's take years to develop.  Take a look at Brees.  His rookie year (late 2nd round pick), he only played 1 game which he didn't start, so let's use his 2nd season as effectively his rookie year.  

He started 16 games, went 8-8, hitting 60.8% of his passes, 17 TDs, 16 Ints and a passer rating of 76.9

The following season. he went 2-9, hitting 57.6% of his passes, 11TDs, 15 Ints and a passer rating of 67.5

Everyone in San Diego at this point basically threw in the towel and they drafted Philip Rivers.  The following year, Brees goes on to the Pro-bowl and has since been there 7 more times and may even be a HOF'er.

Manuel's stats are not stellar by any means, but realistically not too far off of Brees's in his first year.
4-6, 58.8%, 11-9 and 77.7.  The guy is 23, got thrown to wolves and had to deal with a series of non-serious knee injuries. Give him a full training camp and the keys to the car and see what he can do.

Remeber, in the good old days, it was rare for a QB, even a first rounder, to just come in and take the starting job from week 1 on...each guy develops different.  The truth is, Brees, like Terry Bradshaw (and hopefully EJ) just needed a that time to develop into the great player they became..they simply weren't ready to step in from day one...doesn't mean they never will be.

EJ has a lot of tools to work with...by all accounts, he is a coachable kid...I would really love to see them get a QB coach for him to work on footwork, which would likely improve his accuracy.  I never really saw a lot of evidence, during this season past, that there was a lot of emphasis being put on that, in regards to EJ.  Manuel is big guy, and his movement doesn't always seem fluid to my eyes...almost like he is thinking too much and it is effecting his form.

#4 sodbuster

sodbuster

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,657 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 01:23 PM

View PostCoach55, on 06 January 2014 - 11:58 AM, said:

Perfect example of why we shouldn't give on Manuel so soon is Drew Brees (I am not saying that Manuel is Drew Brees by any way, shape or form, but a comparison can be made).

In recent years, there have been a lot of "NFL ready" quarterbacks coming out of college, but often times NFL QB's take years to develop.  Take a look at Brees.  His rookie year (late 2nd round pick), he only played 1 game which he didn't start, so let's use his 2nd season as effectively his rookie year.  

He started 16 games, went 8-8, hitting 60.8% of his passes, 17 TDs, 16 Ints and a passer rating of 76.9

The following season. he went 2-9, hitting 57.6% of his passes, 11TDs, 15 Ints and a passer rating of 67.5

Everyone in San Diego at this point basically threw in the towel and they drafted Philip Rivers Eli Manning.  The following year, Brees goes on to the Pro-bowl and has since been there 7 more times and may even be a HOF'er.

Manuel's stats are not stellar by any means, but realistically not too far off of Brees's in his first year.
4-6, 58.8%, 11-9 and 77.7.  The guy is 23, got thrown to wolves and had to deal with a series of non-serious knee injuries. Give him a full training camp and the keys to the car and see what he can do.
But I get your point, and am inclined to agree with you.

Edited by sodbuster, 06 January 2014 - 01:24 PM.


#5 Endless Ike

Endless Ike

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 854 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 01:50 PM

I think Drew Brees is definitely a HOFer...I'm not sure how you could make a cogent argument that he's not. He's likely to be top 3 in both passing TDs and yards when he retires.

Edited by Endless Ike, 06 January 2014 - 01:52 PM.


#6 DDD

DDD

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,698 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:00 PM

Who says were throwing in the towel on EJ?  It's realistically going to take two more seasons to see if he can be the guy.  That said, the Bills should not wait on him especially during the 2015 draft.  If a top QB is there for there for the taking and things have not manifested themselves, the Bills should draft him.

#7 Homey D. Clown

Homey D. Clown

    Circle the Wagons Jim!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,399 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:09 PM

And just like San Diego, I'd like to see the Bills draft another QB if someone worthy falls to #9.  That's not giving up on EJ, that's drafting for the possibility he isn't the answer.  almost every other position in all of pro sports are like that and QB should be no different.  San Diego was then in position do get some draft picks since Drew had value.  A smart GM should see that as opportunity.

#8 RuntheDamnBall

RuntheDamnBall

    Go Bills

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,220 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:16 PM

View PostHomey D. Clown, on 06 January 2014 - 02:09 PM, said:

And just like San Diego, I'd like to see the Bills draft another QB if someone worthy falls to #9.  That's not giving up on EJ, that's drafting for the possibility he isn't the answer.  almost every other position in all of pro sports are like that and QB should be no different.  San Diego was then in position do get some draft picks since Drew had value.  A smart GM should see that as opportunity.
That strategy works if the QB is by far the better player than anyone else on the board.

FWIW, San Diego's decision-making process has led to a 4-4 record in the playoffs under Rivers, while Brees has gone 6-3 in the playoffs with a title in hand since leaving the Chargers.

You can say the Chargers played it safely - which they did - and came out competitive, but I think they'd give it all up if they knew they would have Brees playing like this + their first ever title.

#9 Homey D. Clown

Homey D. Clown

    Circle the Wagons Jim!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,399 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:19 PM

View PostRuntheDamnBall, on 06 January 2014 - 02:16 PM, said:

That strategy works if the QB is by far the better player than anyone else on the board.

FWIW, San Diego's decision-making process has led to a 4-4 record in the playoffs under Rivers, while Brees has gone 6-3 in the playoffs with a title in hand since leaving the Chargers.

You can say the Chargers played it safely - which they did - and came out competitive, but I think they'd give it all up if they knew they would have Brees playing like this + their first ever title.

very true, and most would say that they held all the cards, since even an unproven Rivers would have brought draft picks....  this is really a win- win.

#10 Deadstroke

Deadstroke

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 259 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:23 PM

View PostCoach55, on 06 January 2014 - 11:58 AM, said:

Perfect example of why we shouldn't give on Manuel so soon is Drew Brees (I am not saying that Manuel is Drew Brees by any way, shape or form, but a comparison can be made).

In recent years, there have been a lot of "NFL ready" quarterbacks coming out of college, but often times NFL QB's take years to develop.  Take a look at Brees.  His rookie year (late 2nd round pick), he only played 1 game which he didn't start, so let's use his 2nd season as effectively his rookie year.  

He started 16 games, went 8-8, hitting 60.8% of his passes, 17 TDs, 16 Ints and a passer rating of 76.9

The following season. he went 2-9, hitting 57.6% of his passes, 11TDs, 15 Ints and a passer rating of 67.5

Everyone in San Diego at this point basically threw in the towel and they drafted Philip Rivers.  The following year, Brees goes on to the Pro-bowl and has since been there 7 more times and may even be a HOF'er.

Manuel's stats are not stellar by any means, but realistically not too far off of Brees's in his first year.
4-6, 58.8%, 11-9 and 77.7.  The guy is 23, got thrown to wolves and had to deal with a series of non-serious knee injuries. Give him a full training camp and the keys to the car and see what he can do.

Nice post, Coach55, shows that unlike some of the opinions on the board, Manual´s stats were not to terrifically bad. I think that I would settle for another cool Brees.

#11 Pete

Pete

    Go Bills!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,881 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:23 PM

TBD has many who ride the retard rollercoaster.

Friends of mine who are Pats, Jets, and Giants fans have all said to me that they they think EJ is the real deal and will be very good for us.  TBD is sharpening their pitchforks and lobbying to spend a second consecutive first rounder on QB.

Patience grasshopper

#12 RuntheDamnBall

RuntheDamnBall

    Go Bills

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,220 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:24 PM

View PostHomey D. Clown, on 06 January 2014 - 02:19 PM, said:

very true, and most would say that they held all the cards, since even an unproven Rivers would have brought draft picks....  this is really a win- win.
It's hard to judge them harshly on it.  That shoulder injury was also viewed as potentially career-ending, and even the Dolphins' medical staff agreed after it seemed that they had come to terms on a contract.  

But one thing - this was after a few years of Brees' career, not just one.  I think it looks a lot more like bailing on EJ to select another top QB after one season.

A QB at #9 for the Bills really has to be bar none the BPA -- because a great WR, LB, TE or DL would really help this team, too.

#13 C.Biscuit97

C.Biscuit97

    Ladies' Man

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,734 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:33 PM

View Postzow2, on 06 January 2014 - 12:19 PM, said:

I don't think many people are throwing in the towel on EJ. Like Whaley said, we all expect good progression from year 1 to year 2. We'd better see it. Would be nice if EJ could sprinkle in a few 300 yard passing games in the mix like Drew Brees did in his 2nd season.

If the Bills see a QB in the draft that they love, and he falls to them, I wouldn't be upset to have them pull the trigger in order to hedge their bets on EJ. You have to get the QB position right or the organization will spin their wheels indefinitely.

To your point, EJ had 296 against the Panthers.  Without looking it up, that has to be one of the best QB performances against that great defense all year.

For the people who are defending EJ (and why won't you if you are a Bills fan), none is saying EJ will necessarily become great.  I just wonder what happened to patience.  If the D holds the leads against the Pats and Falcons, EJ is looked at completely different.  Additionally besides a fluke 4 ints game, he protected the ball very well.

Also, who in this draft has both the physical and mental qualities of EJ?  EJ has every single thing you want in a young QB.  Obviously there's a lot to prove but it was year one.  EJ has been here for 1 year of the 14 year drought.  I think fans' frustrations are put on the wrong people at times.

View PostHomey D. Clown, on 06 January 2014 - 02:09 PM, said:

And just like San Diego, I'd like to see the Bills draft another QB if someone worthy falls to #9.  That's not giving up on EJ, that's drafting for the possibility he isn't the answer.  almost every other position in all of pro sports are like that and QB should be no different.  San Diego was then in position do get some draft picks since Drew had value.  A smart GM should see that as opportunity.

I disagree.  You owe it to your franchise QB to surround him with as many weapons as possible.  Using a high pick cheats EJ of a possible weapon.  Besides, I struggle to see who is that great QB at #9.  It is a very average group IMO.

You draft like EJ is the guy and if he fails this year, a new QB will set into a very good situation.  But drafting a QB at #9 would hurt the team next year.

#14 Security

Security

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 735 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:36 PM

Look at Steve McNair:

http://www.nfl.com/p...2502045/profile

I think he is about the Max we can see from EJ.  His career is 82.8 rating, and the most he every threw for was 3,387 yards.  He was known as a clutch player though, and guy who played hurt.   Only 60.1% completions, and in 13 seasons he was only above passer rating of 90 3 times.  He basically threw for about 200 yards a game for his career in games he started and finished, but was always looked at as a decent QB.

That is the ceiling, nothing higher.

Edited by Security, 06 January 2014 - 02:37 PM.


#15 Beerball

Beerball

    Things happen...

  • Global Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 32,797 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:37 PM

View PostCoach55, on 06 January 2014 - 11:58 AM, said:

Perfect example of why we shouldn't give on Manuel so soon is Drew Brees (I am not saying that Manuel is Drew Brees by any way, shape or form, but a comparison can be made).

In recent years, there have been a lot of "NFL ready" quarterbacks coming out of college, but often times NFL QB's take years to develop.  Take a look at Brees.  His rookie year (late 2nd round pick), he only played 1 game which he didn't start, so let's use his 2nd season as effectively his rookie year.  

He started 16 games, went 8-8, hitting 60.8% of his passes, 17 TDs, 16 Ints and a passer rating of 76.9

The following season. he went 2-9, hitting 57.6% of his passes, 11TDs, 15 Ints and a passer rating of 67.5

Everyone in San Diego at this point basically threw in the towel and they drafted Philip Rivers.  The following year, Brees goes on to the Pro-bowl and has since been there 7 more times and may even be a HOF'er.

Manuel's stats are not stellar by any means, but realistically not too far off of Brees's in his first year.
4-6, 58.8%, 11-9 and 77.7.  The guy is 23, got thrown to wolves and had to deal with a series of non-serious knee injuries. Give him a full training camp and the keys to the car and see what he can do.
I agree dammit! Manuel  could be Drew Brees & the best course to help him reach his potential is to do what SD did.

#16 RuntheDamnBall

RuntheDamnBall

    Go Bills

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,220 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:40 PM

View PostSecurity, on 06 January 2014 - 02:36 PM, said:

Look at Steve McNair:

http://www.nfl.com/p...2502045/profile

I think he is about the Max we can see from EJ.  His career is 82.8 rating, and the most he every threw for was 3,387 yards.  He was known as a clutch player though, and guy who played hurt.   Only 60.1% completions, and in 13 seasons he was only above passer rating of 90 3 times.  He basically threw for about 200 yards a game for his career in games he started and finished, but was always looked at as a decent QB.

That is the ceiling, nothing higher.
I would take Steve McNair any day of the week over what the Bills have had at QB the last 18 years.

#17 jboyst62

jboyst62

    Hall of Farmer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,884 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:42 PM

At this point EJ will pan out to be a pretty tall QB.  I predict somewhere between Jesse Palmer and Vinny Testeverde

#18 C.Biscuit97

C.Biscuit97

    Ladies' Man

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,734 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:43 PM

View PostSecurity, on 06 January 2014 - 02:36 PM, said:

Look at Steve McNair:

http://www.nfl.com/p...2502045/profile

I think he is about the Max we can see from EJ.  His career is 82.8 rating, and the most he every threw for was 3,387 yards.  He was known as a clutch player though, and guy who played hurt.   Only 60.1% completions, and in 13 seasons he was only above passer rating of 90 3 times.  He basically threw for about 200 yards a game for his career in games he started and finished, but was always looked at as a decent QB.

That is the ceiling, nothing higher.

That's a pretty solid comparison.  At the same time, EJ as a rookie was probably better than McNair in his 3rd year (1st as a starter).  http://www.pro-footb.../M/McNaSt00.htm  Overall, I think it is unfair to completely compare players because who has any idea (what was Brady's ceiling after his rookie year?)

That said, if Manuel makes multiple pro bowls, wins a MVP, and takes us to the SB, I could live with a McNair like career for EJ. :flirt:

#19 SBUffalo

SBUffalo

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 874 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:44 PM

Brees didn't play his rookie year and then showed flashes for two years before blowing up. Manuel played his rookie year and didn't show much if anything.

#20 Security

Security

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 735 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 02:46 PM

View Postjboyst62, on 06 January 2014 - 02:42 PM, said:

At this point EJ will pan out to be a pretty tall QB.  I predict somewhere between Jesse Palmer and Vinny Testeverde
What?  Palmer has 562 yards career passing and played 5 years, Vinnie played 21 years and has 46,233 yards passing and had 429 in one game before!

Wide range, really going out on a ledge there!