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Our 7-Round DraftSim takes Offense


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#1 Astrobot

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 07:05 AM

http://www.drafttek....raft-Round1.asp
I say "our" because Bills' team needs are generated here at Two Bills Drive by polls and discussion. I'm proud of the editing I did this week as I made sure Analysts included at least one link.
Astro

#2 xsoldier54

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 07:26 AM

That doesn't look too bad.  Most areas of need addressed and some good players in that draft.  Good job Astro.

#3 Mr. WEO

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 08:20 AM

Great job Astobot!  Although passing on Ebron made me very sad.

#4 simpleman

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 08:22 AM

It starts out great in the first two rounds, but does nothing to address our LB needs. A 7th round throw away pick does not seriously address a pressing issue. The dline is the only strength of our team and we use two picks on it while not filling a critical need at lb. I still believe that the best possible outcome of this draft for the Bills would be if we can find a partner and trade down in the first for another 2nd.

#5 Astrobot

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 08:24 AM

Looking back at it, we didn't address inside linebacker next to Kiko, and that's more important than TE, IMHO. However, we have an obscene amount of cap room (and I'm cutting Pears, Kolb for an extra $6M) for free agency. We'll have to explore the FA market for some of these drafted positions and see what gives.

#6 Astrobot

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 08:42 AM

View Postsimpleman, on 19 February 2014 - 08:22 AM, said:

It starts out great in the first two rounds, but does nothing to address our LB needs. A 7th round throw away pick does not seriously address a pressing issue. The dline is the only strength of our team and we use two picks on it while not filling a critical need at lb. I still believe that the best possible outcome of this draft for the Bills would be if we can find a partner and trade down in the first for another 2nd.

My reasoning for having DE as a P3 Need:
  • Schwartz needs to have DE's for his Wide Nine to work.
  • Schwartz drafted more DL in his time on Lions than any other position.
  • MWilliams and KWilliams are 2 of the 5-oldest Bills
  • Branch is one of the 7-oldest
  • Dareus' and Hughes' contracts are up next year. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/


#7 Dorkington

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 09:03 AM

I'm pretty ok with this draft...

But yeah, we would need to find a ILB in FA, then.

#8 nobody14

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 09:30 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 19 February 2014 - 07:05 AM, said:

http://www.drafttek....raft-Round1.asp
I say "our" because Bills' team needs are generated here at Two Bills Drive by polls and discussion. I'm proud of the editing I did this week as I made sure Analysts included at least one link.
Astro
:thumbsup:

#9 KOKBILLS

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 09:35 AM

I really believe that 3 years from now Robinson will be seen as the best player from this Draft assuming he stays healthy...

I also believe that the chances of him lasting to #9 are slim and none...But should he be there the Bills should run to the podium... B-)

#10 simpleman

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 10:04 AM

Astro. I agree with your reasoning. But I can't agree on the timing on the needs THIS year. If the Bills were a great team now with the luxury of not having any current needs pressing now, I would agree 100% with what you are saying. But the team is in dire need of so much this year. How many years are you going to work on yet another 3 year rebuilding plan?

. Schwartz is a D coordinator. What are his chances of even being here next year? If he does well, he could get another gig as a HC next year.
4 years, 4 D coordinators - 11 Edwards,12 Wanny, 13 Pettine, 14 Schwartz.  Build a team around a D coordinator, questionable. Are we even sure Schwartz is inflexible and will run a wide nine? Has he said so?

Hughes will probably be gone next year, agreed.
I would hope Mario and Dareus are here for at least the next few years. I sure don't foresee them not being here this year, hopefully the team will keep both next as well. Kyle, short of major injury ending his career, I see him here at least two more years. Branch, I hope he lasts two more good years. More short term role players to fill out the wide 9 can be gotten on FA for Schwartz's wide 9, if needed.

Our needs are just too pressing this year, for the right now, to spend needed high, middle round choices on two years or more out. The O-line beyond Woods and Glenn are questionable for protecting a rookie QB. A run stopping  ILB to pair with Kiko is a real need. Either a TE to block and help CJ and the run game, while also being that big tall target for catching passes (best option), or a big tall WR are a real need early. If you get that TE early, not sure you use another high, mid pick on a receiver too.  Get your WR in later rounds IF you get that TE early.

Not to mention EJ may or may not be the QB for the team. And while Lewis may be an acceptable backup, do you really want him as your starting QB? We have a real need for a plan B next year if EJ bombs out this year. A mid, late pick on a QB makes real sense, especially if it becomes clear that EJ is not your man by mid season this year.

Again, your needs listings are very solid. It is just the order of priority THIS YEAR that I question.

Edited by simpleman, 19 February 2014 - 10:31 AM.


#11 Mr. WEO

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 10:10 AM

View PostKOKBILLS, on 19 February 2014 - 09:35 AM, said:

I really believe that 3 years from now Robinson will be seen as the best player from this Draft assuming he stays healthy...

I also believe that the chances of him lasting to #9 are slim and none...But should he be there the Bills should run to the podium... B-)

A RT will be the best player drafted?  When has that ever been the case?

#12 D521646

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 10:34 AM

I'm in the "fix the damn Oline so Freddie and CJ can run", camp.  Robinson would be a great pick if there, but I don't think he will be.  I think he's the first O linemen off the board.  Either way, oline with our first pick, whatever position that turns out to be, and then offensive weapons at TE, WR, then we can worry about Defense.  I think this Bills defense plays a lot different when ahead, so let's try and work on getting ahead in the score.  :)

Ti-

#13 Astrobot

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 11:58 AM

View PostKOKBILLS, on 19 February 2014 - 09:35 AM, said:

I really believe that 3 years from now Robinson will be seen as the best player from this Draft assuming he stays healthy...

I also believe that the chances of him lasting to #9 are slim and none...But should he be there the Bills should run to the podium... B-)
If Robinson goes early (we'd suspect Oakland, but that's a whole other story), it means Clowney is gone, or else he drops from #5 to #6 Atlanta, who run to the podium. That sets the dominoes falling.

Because Atlanta doesn't choose Jake Matthews, Matthews falls to Tampa Bay at #7. TB's choice is now QB (they have Glennon, Kafka, Orlovsky but Tedford will want his own), OT Jake Matthews,  OLB Anthony Barr, and OLB Khalil Mack. We think they go with Mack over Matthews (greater need), but if they don't sign a FA, they take the last of the top 4 QBs.

Minnesota would like QB to fall to them, but if not, they take Mack over Barr, whose stock is falling, and Matthews, who continues to fall.

This gives the Bills a choice of the best ILB (Mosley), the best TE (Ebron), and the tied-for-best or 2nd best but still All-Pro OT (Matthews).

Enviable scenario.



-----------


simpleman, DraftTek's mocks are done by computer, and it will not "reach" for a player or position given its shopping list by Two Bills Drive. The current shopping list is a good discussion. Here was the positional needs listfor the mock draft we just put online at midnight:

P1---None (You can only have one P1 need, so computer selects BPA at all P2 positions)

P2---RT, OG, TE, WR, ILB

P3---DE43, FS, RB, WR

P4---OC, QB, OLB43, SS, CB

P6---DT43, LT

P9---everything else

Edited by Astrobot, 19 February 2014 - 11:59 AM.


#14 BringBackFergy

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 12:01 PM

View PostAstrobot, on 19 February 2014 - 11:58 AM, said:


If Robinson goes early (we'd suspect Oakland, but that's a whole other story), it means Clowney is gone, or else he drops from #5 to #6 Atlanta, who run to the podium. That sets the dominoes falling.

Because Atlanta doesn't choose Jake Matthews, Matthews falls to Tampa Bay at #7. TB's choice is now QB (they have Glennon, Kafka, Orlovsky but Tedford will want his own), OT Jake Matthews,  OLB Anthony Barr, and OLB Khalil Mack. We think they go with Mack over Matthews (greater need), but if they don't sign a FA, they take the last of the top 4 QBs.

Minnesota would like QB to fall to them, but if not, they take Mack over Barr, whose stock is falling, and Matthews, who continues to fall.

This gives the Bills a choice of the best ILB (Mosley), the best TE (Ebron), and the tied-for-best or 2nd best but still All-Pro OT (Matthews).

Enviable scenario.



-----------


simpleman, DraftTek's mocks are done by computer, and it will not "reach" for a player or position given its shopping list by Two Bills Drive. The current shopping list is a good discussion. Here was the positional needs listfor the mock draft we just put online at midnight:

P1---None (You can only have one P1 need, so computer selects BPA at all P2 positions)

P2---RT, OG, TE, WR, ILB

P3---DE43, FS, RB, WR

P4---OC, QB, OLB43, SS, CB

P6---DT43, LT

P9---everything else
and our pick at #9 becomes that much more valuable for trade down partners.

#15 Pete

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 12:02 PM

I like it.  Myself, I would prefer Borland in the 3rd.  But if we landed Greg Robinson in first I would be quite pleased

#16 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 12:07 PM

View PostAstrobot, on 19 February 2014 - 11:58 AM, said:


If Robinson goes early (we'd suspect Oakland, but that's a whole other story), it means Clowney is gone, or else he drops from #5 to #6 Atlanta, who run to the podium. That sets the dominoes falling.

Because Atlanta doesn't choose Jake Matthews, Matthews falls to Tampa Bay at #7. TB's choice is now QB (they have Glennon, Kafka, Orlovsky but Tedford will want his own), OT Jake Matthews,  OLB Anthony Barr, and OLB Khalil Mack. We think they go with Mack over Matthews (greater need), but if they don't sign a FA, they take the last of the top 4 QBs.

Minnesota would like QB to fall to them, but if not, they take Mack over Barr, whose stock is falling, and Matthews, who continues to fall.

This gives the Bills a choice of the best ILB (Mosley), the best TE (Ebron), and the tied-for-best or 2nd best but still All-Pro OT (Matthews).

Enviable scenario.



-----------


simpleman, DraftTek's mocks are done by computer, and it will not "reach" for a player or position given its shopping list by Two Bills Drive. The current shopping list is a good discussion. Here was the positional needs listfor the mock draft we just put online at midnight:

P1---None (You can only have one P1 need, so computer selects BPA at all P2 positions)

P2---RT, OG, TE, WR, ILB

P3---DE43, FS, RB, WR

P4---OC, QB, OLB43, SS, CB

P6---DT43, LT

P9---everything else
I wish that it would let you reach so that you can draft Michael Sam (1 full round before expected) and then sit back and watch TBD explode. After about 10-20 pages the conversation will once again evolve into when/where Michael Sam will be checking out his teammate's junk. That's one way to pass the time in the offseason....

Even though I am against OT at 9, Robinson is the guy I would be okay with. I really like ASJ an Coleman. As always, nice job Astro!!

Edited by Kirby Jackson, 19 February 2014 - 12:08 PM.


#17 kdiggz

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 12:12 PM

Robinson makes me nervous. He only played Guard for 2 years in high school and then 1 in college before being moved to the most important position on the field besides QB last yr (left tackle). I don't like when a high pick lacks experience (aaron maybin). If Matthews (a senior and obvious OL pedigree) is gone then I'm putting my sights on LB or TE. I wouldn't be too upset if they got Ebron if they felt like he was worth such a high pick (if he's jimmy graham caliber). We need help on offense so that should be our focus

#18 Astrobot

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 12:50 PM

View PostPete, on 19 February 2014 - 12:02 PM, said:

I like it.  Myself, I would prefer Borland in the 3rd.  But if we landed Greg Robinson in first I would be quite pleased
Yeah, I saw Borland and thought, what if we took Packers WR James Jones in FA? Take Borland there. My favorite ILB is Skov for what we're trying to do, but RD2 extra pick is needed for him--RD3#73 will be too late.

View Postkdiggz, on 19 February 2014 - 12:12 PM, said:

Robinson makes me nervous. He only played Guard for 2 years in high school and then 1 in college before being moved to the most important position on the field besides QB last yr (left tackle). I don't like when a high pick lacks experience (aaron maybin). If Matthews (a senior and obvious OL pedigree) is gone then I'm putting my sights on LB or TE. I wouldn't be too upset if they got Ebron if they felt like he was worth such a high pick (if he's jimmy graham caliber). We need help on offense so that should be our focus
I suggest you watch a little more video of Robinson and not go Maybin on me.

#19 67 Lion

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 12:51 PM

I would take Troy Niklas as the TE of choice at #42...he is a far more complete player than your guy

#20 Astrobot

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 01:04 PM

View Post67 Lion, on 19 February 2014 - 12:51 PM, said:

I would take Troy Niklas as the TE of choice at #42...he is a far more complete player than your guy

Niklas got into less trouble and is a better run-blocker, so yes, there's a chance the Bills look at him closely, but read this for more. I'm still not sold that Niklas will be 3rd TE off the board after Ebron-Amaro:
http://edraft.com/nf...vs-troy-niklas/