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Are the Quarterbacks going to start dropping?


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#1 GunnerBill

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 09:36 AM

This time last year there were a lot of people talking about a poor crop of Quarterbacks about to come out in the NFL Draft.  Despite this Geno Smith still seemed this far out to be something of a "consensus" 1st pick in the draft but there was a lack of agreement beyond that as to how many signal callers would go in the first round. There were some at this point last year suggesting that as may as 3 Quarterbacks could be off the board before the Bills picked at 8. In the end we all know what happened.  The Quarterbacks fell, the Bills were able to trade back to 16 and still have their pick of the litter.  EJ Manuel was the only QB taken in round 1, Geno sulked his way into round 2, and the others slipped yet further.

This year the crop have not take anywhere near as much criticism, the feeling seemed to be "no slam dunk but 3/4 guys who should go in the top 10".  Which is why my interest has been taken today by reports that the Houston Texans, holding the 1st overall selection, are keen to bring in Matt Cassel as a free agent.  Texans coach Bill O'Brien worked with Cassel in New England, and Cassel had a decent season when given the opportunity in Minnesota last season to recover a little of the respect he had lost in a horrid final season in Kansas City.  But we shouldn't forget that Cassel went to a pro-bowl during his time at Arrowhead and when you consider his familiarity with Bill O'Brien's system then if he does go to Houston there is a fair chance he starts.

So what does all that mean....? Well if Cassel is considered a place holder for a year or two at Quarterback then maybe rather than taking a QB at 1st overall the Texans do what they did last time they selected first and take the freak defensive talent (for Mario Williams read Jadeveon Clowney), drafting a Quarterback in a later round to develop.  So with some speculating already that Derek Carr has slipped out of the top 8 and will go (at the earliest) with the Brown's second 1st rounder, does Houston taking a non-Quarterback suggest we could see a repeat of 2013?  Are the Quarterbacks slipping? And if they do what could be the knock on effect for the Bills at 9?

And as a final thought..... if the Quarterbacks slip for a second consecutive year how does that square with the assessment that the NFL is more than ever a Quarterback driven league??

#2 richNjoisy

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 09:54 AM

My take on this, GunnerBill, is that the QB's will go high perhaps as high as #1 (Houston) but Clowney is the clear #1 and SHOULD go then but QB's are THE player
every team needs. My expectation is three go before the Bills pick at pick 9 and it is possible 4 will go. 4 would be "dreamy" because (why does this always seem to be the case?) THE
player I'd like to fall to us always seems to get grabbed right before us (see Luke Keuchly...argh!)

Players that should go before Bills pick: Clowney, Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, Robinson, Matthews, Mack, Watkins.  If a 4th QB goes before us, then one of the top 2 OT's, Top WR or Top LB falls to us.

Dreamy.

But , if no 4th QB, Bills select from Mosely, Evans, Lewan and Barr.

Not too shabby.

Edited by richNjoisy, 06 March 2014 - 09:54 AM.


#3 swnybillsfan

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 04:32 PM

no way they drop. all last year i remember people coming out of the woodwork to tell me how great this class of QBs is going to be. i would bet my house that 8 of the first 10 picks are QBs. :flirt:

#4 KOKBILLS

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 04:40 PM

I think Bridgewater and Bortles are mortal locks for the top 10...

I think Manziel is close to a lock, but I could see him slide a bit depending on how things go in the top 7...

I still feel Bortles goes #1, Bridgewater #3, and Manziel #4...I just can't possibly see those Franchises passing on the opportunity to take a QB...Especially in this Draft when your 2nd Round pick will likely land you a prospect that would have been a mid-later 1st round pick in most Drafts...To me it's a no-brainer to take the chance on the QB high...Especially when it's a big need... B-)

#5 QB Bills

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 06:05 PM

View PostKOKBILLS, on 06 March 2014 - 04:40 PM, said:

I think Bridgewater and Bortles are mortal locks for the top 10...

I think Manziel is close to a lock, but I could see him slide a bit depending on how things go in the top 7...

I still feel Bortles goes #1, Bridgewater #3, and Manziel #4...I just can't possibly see those Franchises passing on the opportunity to take a QB...Especially in this Draft when your 2nd Round pick will likely land you a prospect that would have been a mid-later 1st round pick in most Drafts...To me it's a no-brainer to take the chance on the QB high...Especially when it's a big need... B-)
I don't think Cleveland takes a QB at 4. I believe they are very bullish on Hoyer. He looked pretty good last year until he got Kiko smashed. Imagine they take Watkins and pair him next to Josh Gordon? Look out!

Edited by QB Bills, 06 March 2014 - 06:06 PM.


#6 johnwalter

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 06:21 PM

View PostrichNjoisy, on 06 March 2014 - 09:54 AM, said:

My take on this, GunnerBill, is that the QB's will go high perhaps as high as #1 (Houston) but Clowney is the clear #1 and SHOULD go then but QB's are THE player
every team needs. My expectation is three go before the Bills pick at pick 9 and it is possible 4 will go. 4 would be "dreamy" because (why does this always seem to be the case?) THE
player I'd like to fall to us always seems to get grabbed right before us (see Luke Keuchly...argh!)

Players that should go before Bills pick: Clowney, Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, Robinson, Matthews, Mack, Watkins.  If a 4th QB goes before us, then one of the top 2 OT's, Top WR or Top LB falls to us.

Dreamy.

But , if no 4th QB, Bills select from Mosely, Evans, Lewan and Barr.

Not too shabby.

i think this is pretty spot on but i believe that there is no chance of a 4th QB in the top eight picks.  it more than likely 3 will go but also possible that only 2 go before we pick.  i also dont think that mosely is on the bills radar that high.

#7 GunnerBill

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 06:28 PM

I think the top 5 could play out as:

#1 - Houston - Clowney
#2 - St Louis - Robinson
#3 - Jacksonville - A QB.... not sure which one...
#4 - Cleveland - Watkins
#5 - Oakland - Mack

Than do Atlanta take a QB? Unlikely..... do Tampa? Possibly...... do Minnesota? They might if they're getting the second guy off the board.

#8 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 07:06 PM

View PostGunnerBill, on 06 March 2014 - 06:28 PM, said:

I think the top 5 could play out as:

#1 - Houston - Clowney
#2 - St Louis - Robinson
#3 - Jacksonville - A QB.... not sure which one...
#4 - Cleveland - Watkins
#5 - Oakland - Mack

Than do Atlanta take a QB? Unlikely..... do Tampa? Possibly...... do Minnesota? They might if they're getting the second guy off the board.
This would be bad for the Bills but I could totally see it happening. My guess would be Atlanta takes Matthews. If Tampa didn't take QB maybe it would be Lewan or Barr? I have no idea what Tampa would do. Minnesota probably would go QB but may try to trade down a few spots (St. Louis at 13) if 2 QBs are still on the board? In that scenario St. Louis would come up most likely for Evans ahead of the Bills and Lions.

#9 filthymcnasty08

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 07:28 PM

Jax has to take Johnny football if he's there at 3…big risk/reward…but that franchise needs SOMETHING to restore relevancy and this is an entertainment business.  Horrid uniform changes notwithstanding.

#10 GunnerBill

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 07:30 PM

Yep. That's my fear. I think the deeper teams have gotten into this Quarterback class the more the issues that were hiding below the surface with all three of these guys come to light.

Obviously I want Houston to go QB at #1 because that changes everyone else's calculation but I do fear them going Cassel and then a project rookie in a middle round.

#11 Mr. WEO

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 07:48 PM

I googled "Geno smith number one pick".  At this time last year the only ones who thought he might go number one were Andy Reid and...Geno Smith.

I don't see the QBs dropping this year.

#12 KOKBILLS

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 08:36 PM

View PostQB Bills, on 06 March 2014 - 06:05 PM, said:

I don't think Cleveland takes a QB at 4. I believe they are very bullish on Hoyer. He looked pretty good last year until he got Kiko smashed. Imagine they take Watkins and pair him next to Josh Gordon? Look out!

I wish them the best of luck with that plan... :thumbsup:

Watkins and Gordon would be a great duo for sure...But sticking with Hoyer reminds me a little of the Bills going with Fitz...While Hoyer has certainly shown he can get the job done at times...I'm full of doubt whether or not he is going to be a long term answer...If they only pass on Johnny Football I get it...Some teams are simply not going to be high on Manziel...But if they passed on Bortles or Bridgewater for Hoyer...Well...That would be a hell of a gamble... B-)

#13 HoF Watkins

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 08:55 PM

A lot depends on if a team decides to trade into the top 10 for one of the QB's.

#14 KOKBILLS

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 08:58 PM

View PostGunnerBill, on 06 March 2014 - 07:30 PM, said:

Yep. That's my fear. I think the deeper teams have gotten into this Quarterback class the more the issues that were hiding below the surface with all three of these guys come to light.

Obviously I want Houston to go QB at #1 because that changes everyone else's calculation but I do fear them going Cassel and then a project rookie in a middle round.

That may or may not be true (honestly I don't think it is)...But look at it another way...

You've got Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota...Of those 5 teams there was a total of 7 QB's that had 225 attempts in 2013 (Cassel, Ponder, Campbell, Henne, Schaub, Weeden, and Pryor)...The highest QB rating among those 7 QB's was Cassel, a soon to be 32 yr old-now-journeyman QB, at 81.6...2013 3rd Round pick Mike Glennon outperformed all of those QB's...This is a poor UFA crop of QB's this off season, and you have 3 signal callers who are going to be rated in the Top 10 of this Draft...How do you pass on one of these kids and sell that to your fan-base?

Think of it this way...If the Bills were one of those 5 teams...And they passed on a QB in the top 8...How would this fan-base react? B-)

#15 K-9

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 09:01 PM

A little birdie tells me some QBs are already dropping, such is the other talent in this draft.

I'm still trying to figure out the blurb on NFLN the other day that said the Browns had rated Garoppolo higher than Manziel. I suspect it's gamesmanship, but to what end I wonder.

GO BILLS!!!

Edited by K-9, 06 March 2014 - 10:37 PM.


#16 FeartheLosing

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 10:07 PM

Teams are so desperate for QB's, and yet only Bortles threw at the combine.
  • Texans could go Clowney with the #1 overall, and opt for a QB in the 2nd, Carr or Garoppolo.
  • St Louis- either OT Matthews or Robinson
  • Jacksonville- QB Teddy Bridgewater
  • Cleveland- QB Bortles
  • Oakland- WR Sammy Watkins
  • Atlanta- OT whomever is there Matthews or Robinson
  • Tampa Bay- LB Mack
  • Vikings- Manziel
So, I see only three QB's taken by #9.

The choices remaining- trade back or WR Mike Evans- TE Eric Ebron- OT Taylor Lewan. It only takes one team ahead of Buffalo to fall in love with any of those three, and they could get lucky.

NFL's Charles Davis has Matthews falling to #12, and the Bills drafting Evans ahead of him.   :wacko:   http://www.nfl.com/d...014/mock-drafts

#17 KOKBILLS

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 10:20 PM

View PostFeartheLosing, on 06 March 2014 - 10:07 PM, said:

Teams are so desperate for QB's, and yet only Bortles threw at the combine.
  • Texans could go Clowney with the #1 overall, and opt for a QB in the 2nd, Carr or Garoppolo.

  • St Louis- either OT Matthews or Robinson

  • Jacksonville- QB Teddy Bridgewater

  • Cleveland- QB Bortles

  • Oakland- WR Sammy Watkins

  • Atlanta- OT whomever is there Matthews or Robinson

  • Tampa Bay- LB Mack

  • Vikings- Manziel
So, I see only three QB's taken by #9.

The choices remaining- trade back or WR Mike Evans- TE Eric Ebron- OT Taylor Lewan. It only takes one team ahead of Buffalo to fall in love with any of those three, and they could get lucky.

NFL's Charles Davis has Matthews falling to #12, and the Bills drafting Evans ahead of him.   :wacko:   http://www.nfl.com/d...014/mock-drafts

I'm becoming more and more convinced by the day that it will be Evans or Ebron at #9... B-)

#18 enlightener

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 12:18 AM

if its either evans or ebron I hope the bills trade back to the early teens and take whichever of the two is left....I don't see much difference in the two and id really like another 2 or 3 in this draft.

#19 Dragonborn10

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 01:04 AM

Jax has to go QB.  Cleveland could wait and instead decide to take Mack or Watkins.  Oakland actually has less talent than the Bills so a trade down is the wisest choice - unless Watkins is still on the board.  Minnesota needs O-line and defensive help just as much as a QB.  Tampa Bay - who the hell knows with a new HC.  They probably take Barr or the top DB(especially if they trade Revis).

#9 spot is looking pretty awful right now unless you are happy with an OT.  Best hope is a QB falls and their is a market for him. Then the Bills move down and add picks.  Hopefully can still get Ebron in mid first round and then start drafting lots of linebackers.

#20 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 01:18 AM

View PostKOKBILLS, on 06 March 2014 - 04:40 PM, said:

I think Bridgewater and Bortles are mortal locks for the top 10...

I think Manziel is close to a lock, but I could see him slide a bit depending on how things go in the top 7...

I still feel Bortles goes #1, Bridgewater #3, and Manziel #4...I just can't possibly see those Franchises passing on the opportunity to take a QB...Especially in this Draft when your 2nd Round pick will likely land you a prospect that would have been a mid-later 1st round pick in most Drafts...To me it's a no-brainer to take the chance on the QB high...Especially when it's a big need... B-)

Everyone wanted the Bills to draft a QB high last year.  And we did.  Now everyone wants to draft another QB high.  We keep expecting rookie QB's to walk on the field and be good instantly. It's not realistic.