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Analytics for Defensive Holding/Interference: The Seahawk Way


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#1 BringBackFergy

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 08:00 AM

http://www.nflpenalt...all-players.php

Since the NFL is a copycat league, I imagine more and more teams will be utilizing the "hold and bump" philosophy incorporated into the Seahawks defense this past year. Basically, the theory states that the CB's can hold, bump, clutch and rape the WR after the 5 yd cushion multiple times because the on field official will only call it once or twice but can't call it every play (or the game would go on for five hours).

The analytics part would seem to indicate it is better to clutch and grab the WR on every play and give up a few defensive holdings rather than a large chunk of yards.

Which brings me to Belicheat and the AFC East. With Browner and Revis ready to go, you just know the Hoodie will be telling his CB's to be extra aggressive from a cost/benefit standpoint (i.e. this is the new way of approaching defensive backs as demonstrated by the Seahawks). In fact, given it is the Pats, the officials will probably only call it after the game is safely in hand for the Pats (but that is a topic for another thread where we bellyache about the Pats in general).

In reviewing the defensive penalties in the link above, Browner (5), Maxwell (5) and Sherman (10) contributed 20 penalties during the course of the season. Browner is now a Patriot so you just know it's coming our way.

Stephon Gilmore had 6 penalties (some were hands to the face) but overall, I'm hoping Marrone and Schwartz start prepping our WR's for the inevitable: the Pats will copy the Hawks and play "clutch and grab" pass coverage. If I was Marrone (or Brandon), I'd make this known to the officials even before the season starts.

Conversely, I'd get Gilmore, McKelvin, Robey and Graham together and start the indoctrination process before it's too late.

#2 FireChan

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 08:54 AM

We don't have the "we're a team full of tough guys" hype that the Hawks do. So officials won't hesitate to call penalties on us. Especially when we play Brady. The Seahawks don't get penalties because "they play smash-mouth football, legion of booooom!" The officials know the hype and style of the Seahawks and give them the benefit of the doubt. It's the same bias as QB bias.

Until the rules get changed, the Seahawks will be the only team that can do that. Just watch the playoffs last year.

Edited by FireChan, 18 March 2014 - 08:56 AM.


#3 NoSaint

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:26 AM

View PostFireChan, on 18 March 2014 - 08:54 AM, said:

We don't have the "we're a team full of tough guys" hype that the Hawks do. So officials won't hesitate to call penalties on us. Especially when we play Brady. The Seahawks don't get penalties because "they play smash-mouth football, legion of booooom!"

i think fergy is saying that gilmore should start signing his tweets with something similarly catchy and intimidating.



#4 Mr. WEO

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:26 AM

View PostBringBackFergy, on 18 March 2014 - 08:00 AM, said:

http://www.nflpenalt...all-players.php

Since the NFL is a copycat league, I imagine more and more teams will be utilizing the "hold and bump" philosophy incorporated into the Seahawks defense this past year. Basically, the theory states that the CB's can hold, bump, clutch and rape the WR after the 5 yd cushion multiple times because the on field official will only call it once or twice but can't call it every play (or the game would go on for five hours).

The analytics part would seem to indicate it is better to clutch and grab the WR on every play and give up a few defensive holdings rather than a large chunk of yards.

Which brings me to Belicheat and the AFC East. With Browner and Revis ready to go, you just know the Hoodie will be telling his CB's to be extra aggressive from a cost/benefit standpoint (i.e. this is the new way of approaching defensive backs as demonstrated by the Seahawks). In fact, given it is the Pats, the officials will probably only call it after the game is safely in hand for the Pats (but that is a topic for another thread where we bellyache about the Pats in general).

In reviewing the defensive penalties in the link above, Browner (5), Maxwell (5) and Sherman (10) contributed 20 penalties during the course of the season. Browner is now a Patriot so you just know it's coming our way.

Stephon Gilmore had 6 penalties (some were hands to the face) but overall, I'm hoping Marrone and Schwartz start prepping our WR's for the inevitable: the Pats will copy the Hawks and play "clutch and grab" pass coverage. If I was Marrone (or Brandon), I'd make this known to the officials even before the season starts.

Conversely, I'd get Gilmore, McKelvin, Robey and Graham together and start the indoctrination process before it's too late.

Hopefully, the League and the refs haven't read the 100 media reports of this ingenious scheme used by the Seahawks.  Let's keep it on the down low....

Also, Gilmore won't need the "more pass interference/holding" indoctrination.

#5 BringBackFergy

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:33 AM

View PostNoSaint, on 18 March 2014 - 09:26 AM, said:

i think fergy is saying that gilmore should start signing his tweets with something similarly catchy and intimidating.
:lol:    Nice one.  Seriously though - if Browner, Maxwell and Sherman account for 20 defensive holding and pass interference penalties and Gilmore only had 5, statistically, the Hawks hold and interfere much more than the Bills. If Gilmore, McKelvin and Graham/Robey could accumulate 20 defensive holding plays, wouldn't it stand to reason that our defense would be better? (as ass backwards as that sounds).

View PostMr. WEO, on 18 March 2014 - 09:26 AM, said:

Hopefully, the League and the refs haven't read the 100 media reports of this ingenious scheme used by the Seahawks.  Let's keep it on the down low....

Also, Gilmore won't need the "more pass interference/holding" indoctrination.
Not so much ingenious as it is logical...the refs can't call Pass Interference or defensive holding on every play so keep doing it. The law of averages say the benefits would outweigh the costs.  On the other hand, the Bills' defensive philosophy (7-10 yard cushions for the WR's) hasn't really panned out too well. Instead of Legion of Boom maybe our CB's should be the "Legion of Room"

#6 Mr. WEO

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:37 AM

View PostBringBackFergy, on 18 March 2014 - 09:33 AM, said:

:lol: Nice one.  Seriously though - if Browner, Maxwell and Sherman account for 20 defensive holding and pass interference penalties and Gilmore only had 5, statistically, the Hawks hold and interfere much more than the Bills. If Gilmore, McKelvin and Graham/Robey could accumulate 20 defensive holding plays, wouldn't it stand to reason that our defense would be better? (as ass backwards as that sounds).

Not so much ingenious as it is logical...the refs can't call Pass Interference or defensive holding on every play so keep doing it. The law of averages say the benefits would outweigh the costs.  On the other hand, the Bills' defensive philosophy (7-10 yard cushions for the WR's) hasn't really panned out too well. Instead of Legion of Boom maybe our CB's should be the "Legion of Room"

This season, in one game, the refs will call it on every play they see it.  Then it will stop.

#7 Rockinon

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:45 AM

The Bills weren't too shabby in pass coverage throughout the season, even with the loss of Gilmore.  Not only that, they were near the top of the league in interceptions.  All I can say, is it sure is nice to have a disruptive defensive line for a change.

I really don't see the Bills changing their philosophy very much.  The DBs all ready do a lot of bumping near the line of scrimmage and I think guys like McKelvin were successful because the coaches actually allowed him to play his own style rather than try and conform him to a defensive philosophy.  In fact, I think the philosophy was to allow players to play according to their strengths.

Gilmore on the other hand, is a back that likes to get into shoving matches while following his man.

Robey is another back with a completely different style.  He is small, but very good at closing in quick and snatching an interception or braking up a pass.

The addition of Corey Graham, is a big DB with a more physical presence than Robey.  It appears the Bills are kind of mixing it up with different kinds of backs.  Perhaps so the defense can be more versatile?

Bottom line, I don't see our coaches trying to make all of the backs play the same way as the Seahawks.  I see a Bills backfield with a lot of talent and a style all their own.  We may very well find franchises across the league trying to emulate our style.

What really bothered me was the last game against, NE.  Brady, one of the best in the business, nearly abandoned the pass game because of the pressure he was getting.  Unfortunately for the Bills, NE successfully ran the ball right down our throats.  Our pass defense is far from being the problem.  I'd actually call it one of our best strengths.

Edited by Rockinon, 18 March 2014 - 09:52 AM.


#8 MrLocke

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:05 AM

Anyone look at the analytics of all the offensive pass interference Denver's receivers got away with?

#9 billsfan1989

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:17 AM

View PostMr. WEO, on 18 March 2014 - 09:26 AM, said:

Hopefully, the League and the refs haven't read the 100 media reports of this ingenious scheme used by the Seahawks.  Let's keep it on the down low....

Also, Gilmore won't need the "more pass interference/holding" indoctrination.
The officials know the hype and style of the Seahawks and give them the benefit of the doubt. It's the same bias as QB bias   http://weiketrade.hk...nsort275-1.html

#10 Mr. WEO

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:36 AM

View Postbillsfan1989, on 18 March 2014 - 10:17 AM, said:

The officials know the hype and style of the Seahawks and give them the benefit of the doubt. It's the same bias as QB bias   http://weiketrade.hk...nsort275-1.html

Why do they favor the Seahawks D?

And if you are correct, why would other teams try to emulate this type of defense if the refs fbias extends only to the Seahawks D?

#11 Fan in Chicago

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 10:41 AM

View PostNoSaint, on 18 March 2014 - 09:26 AM, said:

i think fergy is saying that gilmore should start signing his tweets with something similarly catchy and intimidating.

Donte Whitner was ahead of the curve on that one and this board roundly mocked him for that ;)

#12 Rockinon

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:00 AM

View PostFan in Chicago, on 18 March 2014 - 10:41 AM, said:

Donte Whitner was ahead of the curve on that one and this board roundly mocked him for that ;)
Gilmore's facebook handle is Bumpnrun Gilmore.

Edited by Rockinon, 18 March 2014 - 11:01 AM.


#13 MarkyMannn

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:15 AM

View PostMrLocke, on 18 March 2014 - 10:05 AM, said:

Anyone look at the analytics of all the offensive pass interference Denver's receivers got away with?
Or the Patriots.  Seems they line 3 WR's in the slot all tight and run a series of picks from that formation.  One guy gets open and Brady hits him

#14 Rockinon

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:20 AM

View PostMarkyMannn, on 18 March 2014 - 11:15 AM, said:

Or the Patriots.  Seems they line 3 WR's in the slot all tight and run a series of picks from that formation.  One guy gets open and Brady hits him
The Bills have tried that too.

#15 LABillzFan

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 11:48 AM

View PostFireChan, on 18 March 2014 - 08:54 AM, said:

The Seahawks don't get penalties because "they play smash-mouth football, legion of booooom!"

Since the legion of boom is taken, the Bills perhaps should bring the team onto to the field to the sweet sounds of Neil Diamond's "Holly Holy."

It really builds as it goes on, y'know.

In fact, not only did it work for Kevin James, but unbelievably...in the end...he got Salma Hayek. So...I think it's worth  shot.

#16 MrLocke

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 12:11 PM

View PostMarkyMannn, on 18 March 2014 - 11:15 AM, said:

Or the Patriots.  Seems they line 3 WR's in the slot all tight and run a series of picks from that formation.  One guy gets open and Brady hits him

Except the Chargers & Patriots got called for it in the playoffs!

#17 FireChan

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:10 PM

View PostMr. WEO, on 18 March 2014 - 10:36 AM, said:



Why do they favor the Seahawks D?

And if you are correct, why would other teams try to emulate this type of defense if the refs fbias extends only to the Seahawks D?

They favor the Seahawks D because its brand recognition/their identity. Similar to how Brady and Manning are good QB's, and thus, get calls.

What teams are emulating the Seahawks? The 49ers and Panthers? Those guys got blown up with calls in the playoffs.

I'm not saying it's a conspiracy or anything like that. I doubt it's even conscious. Officials know the Seahakws are tough and physical and they don't call things that are called on other teams.

#18 Doc

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:14 PM

It's basically Jimmy Johnson's "press coverage" rebooted.

#19 BringBackFergy

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 07:41 PM

View PostDoc, on 18 March 2014 - 03:14 PM, said:

It's basically Jimmy Johnson's "press coverage" rebooted.
and the refs will give Browner and Revis latitude while Gilmore will get called more often if he does it...some things never change.

#20 Doc

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 07:55 PM

View PostBringBackFergy, on 18 March 2014 - 07:41 PM, said:

and the refs will give Browner and Revis latitude while Gilmore will get called more often if he does it...some things never change.
Of course.  But the answer is to "Welker" 'em.