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BPA vs. Need in a deep draft.


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#1 Armchair GM

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 09:20 AM

Good morning Bills fans! Been mulling this over and came to the conclusion that this year needs to be about addressing deficiencies, regardless of the argument, because it is a deep draft. Shocker...right?

This conclusion lead to some thinking on the most apparent deficiencies, the RUN D.

Though we've made a few moves to address this issue (extending Branch, moving Kiko, Spikes) I don't billieve that it's enough. We're missing the most important piece, a dominant DT. Don't get me wrong, I'm still a fan of Dareus and Williams, but they're obviously not the answer with plugging up the line and covering our LB's. They both provide great pressure on passing downs and get good penetration, but their strengths are too similar. We have to be able to mix them up with a true, bigger bodied run stuffer.

All of tis has made me rethink my draft strategy. Even though I am of the school of thought that the game is won @ the LOS, I kinda got carried away with Ebron and/or Evans. Again, the draft is deep @ TE an WR and OT, but not so much @ DT. That being said, there aren't any DT's rated in t top 10, so it further adds to possibility of trading back n picking up extra selections.

So, I reprioritized my draft..

Trade back out of #9 and pick up an extra 2nd, then;

Rd 1 - Louis Nix III
2a - Morgan Moses
2b - Donte Moncrief
3 - Troy Niklas
4 - Jon Halapio
5 - Storm Johnson
7 - Andrew Jackson
\

#2 frogger

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 01:38 PM

Good with the idea, but I'm not a nix fan

#3 smapdi

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 02:15 PM

I don't think another DT is the answer. Dareus is coming into his own & Kyle Williams is Kyle Williams. Then you have Branch.

I'd rather add another DE. Mario is our only true , every down 43 DE. Hughes is our pass rusher but won't do much for run game.

I think they have their sights set on one somewhere in this draft. Someone that is stout against the run that can come in on 1st & 2nd down

#4 FireChan

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 02:24 PM

If we're picking by need, where's our QB pick?  Or are we just gonna wait til we lose Gilmore, Kiko and Dareus to FA before we address that position again?

#5 Max997

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 02:28 PM

View Postsmapdi, on 12 April 2014 - 02:15 PM, said:

I don't think another DT is the answer. Dareus is coming into his own & Kyle Williams is Kyle Williams. Then you have Branch.

I'd rather add another DE. Mario is our only true , every down 43 DE. Hughes is our pass rusher but won't do much for run game.

I think they have their sights set on one somewhere in this draft. Someone that is stout against the run that can come in on 1st & 2nd down

Kyle is a big part of the problem with the run defense IMO and think the defense would be better having Branch and Dareus start with Kyle rotating in. I don't have any stats but teams seem to do most of their damage running right at Kyle who just isn't a run stuffer.

I agree that adding another DE should be a priority although it looks like they plan on going with a combination of Lawson and Hughes opposite Mario.

#6 Kellyto83TD

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 03:48 PM

The only 'Need' I can see is a true RT, the thing is at RT there isn't much difference between talent at round 2 or round 3. There are no first round RT's as you dont' take RT's in round one, its a waste of a pick. LEFT tackle....yeah but we have a developing stud at RT And I can't see moving a guy that only gave up 1.5 sacks last year at LT to RT. And if we did you can bet your ass he would either hold out and demand a trade or there would be no way in hell to re sign him when he becomes a FA.  Trade down, take BPA and lets do this thing

#7 bobobonators

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 04:18 PM

Man id vomit in my mouth if we took a DT in the 1st round.

With dareus and kw, who are you going to bench to plug in the rookie?

And if you intend on rotating the rookie in, you plan on spending a first round pick on a rotational player who wont play 3 downs??

No thanks.

Unless draftting the DT this yr is in preparation for dareus bouncing after this season, which again would make me vomit in my mouth.

#8 Bob Malooga

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 05:00 PM

View Postsmapdi, on 12 April 2014 - 02:15 PM, said:

I'd rather add another DE. Mario is our only true , every down 43 DE. Hughes is our pass rusher but won't do much for run game.

I think they have their sights set on one somewhere in this draft. Someone that is stout against the run that can come in on 1st & 2nd down
I would not be surprised if Scott Crichton is one of our draft picks in the 3rd-4th rounds.

He seems like a blue-collar, Marrone/Schwartz type of guy...reminds me of Aaron Schobel to be honest, he's "country strong."

Watch the play at .55 seconds, not sure this kid is even around in the 3rd or 4th...he's a beast, plays a solid all-around game.

https://www.youtube....h?v=R4rdxv-WoYc

* Turn down your volume, I know some will despise the music...although the video has zero to do with music! :-p

Edited by Bob Malooga, 12 April 2014 - 05:02 PM.


#9 BIllsNation

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 05:04 PM

http://blogs.buffalo...3-4-dts-vs-run/

Kyle Williams was one of the top 5 DT's against the run. I'd much prefer the draft focus on weapons and protection for EJ

View PostBob Malooga, on 12 April 2014 - 05:00 PM, said:

I would not be surprised if Scott Crichton is one of our draft picks in the 3rd-4th rounds.

He seems like a blue-collar, Marrone/Schwartz type of guy...reminds me of Aaron Schobel to be honest, he's "country strong."

Watch the play at .55 seconds, not sure this kid is even around in the 3rd or 4th...he's a beast, plays a solid all-around game.

https://www.youtube....h?v=R4rdxv-WoYc

* Turn down your volume, I know some will despise the music...although the video has zero to do with music! :-p
I like Chricton but hes likely to be a 2nd round pick. doubt he lasts to 3rd or 4th but if so id love the pick

#10 ....lybob

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 05:57 PM

Trade back and pick up a 3rd

1. Aaron Donald DT/DE played all over Pitt's DL can play RDE first and second down and rotate into DT for KW

2. Austin Seferin-Jenkins TE- a bump up on Chandler's athleticism and hands

3a. Troy Nicklas TE a better Lee Smith

3b Jack Mewhort  OT versatile RT

4. Daniel McCullers DT

5. Walt Aikens  CB

7. Senorise Perry RB

#11 Johnny Hammersticks

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 06:31 PM

View Post....lybob, on 12 April 2014 - 05:57 PM, said:

Trade back and pick up a 3rd

1. Aaron Donald DT/DE played all over Pitt's DL can play RDE first and second down and rotate into DT for KW

2. Austin Seferin-Jenkins TE- a bump up on Chandler's athleticism and hands

3a. Troy Nicklas TE a better Lee Smith

3b Jack Mewhort  OT versatile RT

4. Daniel McCullers DT

5. Walt Aikens  CB

7. Senorise Perry RB

Agree with your assessment of Donald, but 2 TE's in back to back rounds?  I don't think so man.

#12 PO'14

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 06:37 PM

How about trading up and getting a player that can play both sides in Jake Matthews.  If you have Glenn on the left, Wood at Center and Jake Matthews on the the right, your line is good for 5 years.   But hey, what do I know?

#13 Max997

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 06:48 PM

View PostKellyto83TD, on 12 April 2014 - 03:48 PM, said:

The only 'Need' I can see is a true RT, the thing is at RT there isn't much difference between talent at round 2 or round 3.

Couldn't disagree with that more as you simply can't put a blanket statement like that on any position or talent

With as much passing as there is in the league today the difference between right and left tackle isn't as big as it used to be especially when you have a young QB

#14 Fixxxer

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 06:51 PM

People forget that we got a good prospect late in the year in Charles, that unlike Corbin Bryant I think he has a good chance of becoming more than a journeyman. I don't think we draft DL this year.

#15 PO'14

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 06:59 PM

View PostMax997, on 12 April 2014 - 06:48 PM, said:

Couldn't disagree with that more as you simply can't put a blanket statement like that on any position or talent

With as much passing as there is in the league today the difference between right and left tackle isn't as big as it used to be especially when you have a young QB
What sold Matthews for me was that he played left for 1 full season and Right for 1 full season.  Meaning, this stud can play anyside.  I agree with you about RIght or Left.  Mathews comes from a Football family and has been a stud in College.  I drool at having Cordy, Eric and Jake on one line.

View PostFixxxer, on 12 April 2014 - 06:51 PM, said:

People forget that we got a good prospect late in the year in Charles, that unlike Corbin Bryant I think he has a good chance of becoming more than a journeyman. I don't think we draft DL this year.
Lets hope Charles pans out.  He has excelled wherever he has played.  Good Post.

#16 Armchair GM

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 07:56 AM

I stand by my arguement, but perhaps I got a bit ahead of myself. We still need a beastly DT to sure up our run D, but this may not be the year to pull the trigger. Maybe if there was a Suh type guy, but there's not.

Maybe grab a guy like Ellis or McCullers in the 3-4 range or ever guys like Kerr and Carrethers in the 7th or as UDFA's?

#17 Robert Paulson

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 08:32 AM

View PostArmchair GM, on 15 April 2014 - 07:56 AM, said:

I stand by my arguement, but perhaps I got a bit ahead of myself. We still need a beastly DT to sure up our run D, but this may not be the year to pull the trigger. Maybe if there was a Suh type guy, but there's not.

Maybe grab a guy like Ellis or McCullers in the 3-4 range or ever guys like Kerr and Carrethers in the 7th or as UDFA's?

our run defense problems were mainly at linebacker and safety- take a wrong angle or fill the wrong gap and we got chunked

#18 3 --> 10 Connection

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 09:25 AM

With the DTs we already have on this team, I’d be shocked if we drafted another one unless that was far and away the BPA.  Reaching for a position need rather than BPA causes you to draft guys like Maybin and Troup.

I think blaming last season’s run deficiencies on the DTs is misguided.  Based on the defense we ran, I don’t believe it would have mattered if we had that 350 guy in the middle.  Many if not all of the big runs we gave up were due to the LBs being over aggressive and not handling their assignments.  They seemed to take themselves out of the play way more often than they were blocked out of the way.  When everyone handled their assignment, I thought we actually weren’t all that bad against the run.  Maybe my memory is failing me but I don’t recall a team constantly gashing us for 5, 7, or 10 yard runs, at least not at the end of the season when the players were more comfortable in the defense.  There were a lot of 1, 2, 3 yard runs and then a 25+ yarder when someone messed up.  Last year’s defense was about gap control, each guy had a gap they were responsible for.  If one guy didn’t control their gap, the result was a big run.

All of that being said, I have no idea if Pettine’s defensive philosophy would have been any different if we had that big Ted Washington type of DT.    

#19 GunnerBill

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 10:02 AM

View Post3 --> 10 Connection, on 15 April 2014 - 09:25 AM, said:

Maybe my memory is failing me but I don’t recall a team constantly gashing us for 5, 7, or 10 yard runs, at least not at the end of the season when the players were more comfortable in the defense.  There were a lot of 1, 2, 3 yard runs and then a 25+ yarder when someone messed up.

I think that was true in the middle of the season... but the Patriots ran at will in the final game.  That might partly have been people not playing at 100% in that game, but it was definitely the case that we were too easy to run on.  There were some stellar games against the run in the middle of the season where it did feel like teams never got more than a couple of yards, but then a missed assignment would result in a big one.

#20 CJallDAY

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Posted 15 April 2014 - 10:52 AM

I think lawson sees time at DE on obvious running downs the dude was a beast at holding the edge vs TE and tackles on running plays from LB last year no reason to think he can't do the same from the position he played at nc state