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What would it cost in draft picks for the Bills to move up in 2014?


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#1 maryland-bills-fan

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:48 AM

Trading up.


My feeling is that even with the free agency upgrades, we have definite holes at right offensive tackle, defensive end and linebacker and could use upgrades at defensive back, offensive guard and wide receiver.   We need three picks in the first three or two rounds.  Trading up would not fix this, so it is not an option- regardless of the shiny toy or Madden video game winning strategy.  What would it take to move up to various slots?  In draft chart values it would be:

pick....points
============
1...........1650   
2...........1250
3.............850
4.............450
5.............350
6.............250
7.............150
8...............50
9................0

In terms of what the Bills would have to give up in picks it would be:

pick.......give up
=====================================
1...........  entire draft 2014 and 2015 plus a 2nd in 2016?
2... ..........1st, 2nd, & 4th this year, next year's 1st
3.............1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks
4.............1st, 2nd round and 5th round pick
5.............1st, 3rd and 4th round pick
6.............1st, 3rd and 7th round pick
7.............1st, 4th, 5th  and 7th round pick
8.............1st, 5th and 7th round pick
9................nothing


Or, alternately, in terms of what we would have left in the way of picks in the draft


Here's what we have left if we trade up

1........... #1   and nothing and nothing next year and no first in 2016
2........... #2,   #73,   5th   7th,   LOSE next year’s 1st round pick
3.............#3,   5th,   7th
4.............#4,   #73   4th,  7th
5.............#5,   #41,   5th  7th
6.............#6,   #41,   4th, 5th
7.............#7,  #41,   #73
8.............#8,  #41,  #73,   4th
9.............#9,  #41,   #73, 4th,   5th,  7th
pick........have left


To meet my criteria of having at least 3 good shots (I’ll say being able to draft a top 100 player) to fill those 3 holes, we could only move up in the first round to the #7 player-  that would give us 3 picks in the draft and a mass of undrafted free agents.  That is just not worth it.  We might expect some quality even in the 4th round this year so a trade up to the #6 slot might work.  Frankly, we are not going to be able to get the top defensive end nor the top wide receiver that way.  If you want to go for that, your draft is going to be one top player, a few 2nd and 3rd tier scrubs who might have a prayer of making an NFL roster and a bunch of training camp fodder.  Welcome back to the last 15 years.

That would not be smart and would set the progress of the team back.  We need to work in the opposite direction in a deep draft.

Edited by maryland-bills-fan, 01 May 2014 - 12:22 PM.


#2 Kellyto83TD

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 10:58 AM

Many GM's agree the old chart is out dated.  No one knows what it would take honestly

#3 maryland-bills-fan

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 11:08 AM

Funny thing though,,,,, look at any draft pick trade done in the last 15 years and you will see that that old chart is still a pretty good predictor.   It is still active and published.  If there is a better chart, please tell me and the rest of the world about it.  There isn't.  I'm a bit surprised about that because with all the mathematical computer tools and trained people out there, it seems that somebody would have eagerly published an improved version.

#4 Tsaikotic

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 12:44 PM

I think it all depends on the teams doing the trade...look at some of last years trades:

Miami trades pick #12 and #42 for Raiders #3 - this would be most like what Bills are trying to do...Miami switched 1st round picks and gave up their second round pick to move up 9 spots into the top 3...Buffalo's #9 is worth more then Miamis #12, so i could see Bills swapping firsts and giving a 3rd for Cleveland's #4 moving only 5 spots down with the difference in points being much less then what Miami and Raiders had last year.

Buffalo trades #8 and #71 for Rams #16, #46, #78 and #222 - this is a swap of 2 picks in 2 different rounds with Rams giving up a 2nd and a 6th or 7th

Cowboys trade #18 for 49ers #31 and #74 - 49ers move up 12 spots for a switch of 1st's and a 3rd round pick

#5 maryland-bills-fan

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Posted 30 April 2014 - 04:59 PM

View PostTsaikotic, on 30 April 2014 - 12:44 PM, said:

I think it all depends on the teams doing the trade...look at some of last years trades:

Miami trades pick #12 and #42 for Raiders #3 - this would be most like what Bills are trying to do...Miami switched 1st round picks and gave up their second round pick to move up 9 spots into the top 3...Buffalo's #9 is worth more then Miamis #12, so i could see Bills swapping firsts and giving a 3rd for Cleveland's #4 moving only 5 spots down with the difference in points being much less then what Miami and Raiders had last year.

pick #12 1200 points plus pick #42 480 points = 1680 points
pick #3 = 2200 points
comment: on a graph of pick versus points, the first 4 points really is skyrocketing and I'm not sure how valid they really are. A lot may depend upon just who is there that year.  One or two changes in people there or staying in college could screw things up.  Things are much more stable out of the top 5.



Buffalo trades #8 and #71 for Rams #16, #46, #78 and #222 - this is a swap of 2 picks in 2 different rounds with Rams giving up a 2nd and a 6th or 7th

#8 1400 points, #71 235 points = 1635 points
#16 1000 points,  #46 440 points, #78= 200 points #222= 2.6 points = 1643 points   pretty close


Cowboys trade #18 for 49ers #31 and #74 - 49ers move up 12 spots for a switch of 1st's and a 3rd round pick
#18  900 points
#31= 600 points, #74= 200 points = 800 points  pretty close


Edited by maryland-bills-fan, 30 April 2014 - 05:00 PM.