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Drastically over valued players in this years draft -


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#1 Kipers Hair

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 12:59 PM

Finally getting some research time in, comparing mocks with players and, if it shakes out as everyone thinks, the following players are going to be taken way too early:

* Any QB taken in the top 25 - Bridgewater is the only reasonably ready to play in the NFL
* Anthony Barr - at best, late 2nd round development player
* Eric Ebron - Not a top 25 guy.  Better athlete than football player
* Zack Martin - As a Tackle no way - as a Guard, OK
* Cody Lattimer - too raw for round 1.
* Mike Evans - In a real NFL offense, too limited for a top 10 pick.  Should thank Johnnie Football...
* Ra'Shede Hageman - Will be out of NFL in 4 years

We wont know for years, but the new salary structure promotes reaching..

#2 D521646

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:06 PM

I agree with all of that.  :)

Tm-

#3 Cynical

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:14 PM

View PostKipers Hair, on 02 May 2014 - 12:59 PM, said:


*Mike Evans Johnnie Football - In a real NFL offense, too limited for a top 10 pick.  Should Needs to thank Johnnie Football Mike Evans...


Fixed it for you.

Without Evans, Johnnie Football is not a potential first rounder, IMHO.

#4 Kipers Hair

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:18 PM

This might be true...but Mike Evans has the look and feel of Stephan Hill.  Just ask the Jets how that worked out.  Hill didn't even have the numbers to back him, just the physical intangibles.  I think Evans has the same intangibles and was played up by Johnnie extending plays.

#5 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:24 PM

View PostKipers Hair, on 02 May 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

This might be true...but Mike Evans has the look and feel of Stephan Hill.  Just ask the Jets how that worked out.  Hill didn't even have the numbers to back him, just the physical intangibles.  I think Evans has the same intangibles and was played up by Johnnie extending plays.

Couldn't disagree more.  Evans played in the SEC, which produces the best cbs in the country, and dominated for 2 years.  Hill basically ran go routes in the ACC.  Two completely different players.

View PostCynical, on 02 May 2014 - 01:14 PM, said:

Fixed it for you.

Without Evans, Johnnie Football is not a potential first rounder, IMHO.

And two top 10 LTs in a system which let Case Keenum became the leading passer in college football history.  Very few college QBs have gotten the chance to play with 2 top 10 pick OTs and a 6'5" top 10 pick wr.

Also, disagree on Ebron.  He might not be top 10 worthy but he's a good football players.  Very little talent on their offense, their go to guy, and broke Vernon Davis' record.

My guys are Taylor Lewan and Blake Bortles.  Lewan is a fake tough guy who wasn't great at all this year.  He takes bad penalties and is a RT at best.  And I never got the myth of Bortles. He's a slightly less athletic EJ and watch his bowl game again.  3 td passes for 200+ yards on screens.

Edited by C.Biscuit97, 02 May 2014 - 01:28 PM.


#6 John from Hemet

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:26 PM

If you ask me Mike Evans made Johnny football look good...not the other way around.

I could definately live with Mike Evans at 9

#7 ForwardLateral00

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:30 PM

I think Bruce Ellington is a player who will be very highly overdrafted. In the Kiper/Mchsay mock Mcshay had him going 26th to the browns. Personally I don't think he is even as good a prospect as Goodwin was last year.

#8 Doc

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:31 PM

In three seasons at Georgia Tech, Hill had a total of 49 receptions for 1248 yards and nine touchdowns.  Oddly enough, Evans averaged almost exactly those same stats the past 2 seasons.

#9 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:32 PM

View PostForwardLateral00, on 02 May 2014 - 01:30 PM, said:

I think Bruce Ellington is a player who will be very highly overdrafted. In the Kiper/Mchsay mock Mcshay had him going 26th to the browns. Personally I don't think he is even as good a prospect as Goodwin was last year.

Could be but in the games I saw, he was really impressive.  I think he is a raw player too (basketball player I think) so he has big upside.

View PostDoc, on 02 May 2014 - 01:31 PM, said:

In three seasons at Georgia Tech, Hill had a total of 49 receptions for 1248 yards and nine touchdowns.  Oddly enough, Evans averaged almost exactly those same stats the past 2 seasons.

Exactly.  The only thing they have i ncommon is their height.

#10 Kipers Hair

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:36 PM

Who was throwing Hill the ball again?

#11 Doc

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:38 PM

View PostDoc, on 02 May 2014 - 01:31 PM, said:

In three seasons at Georgia Tech, Hill had a total of 49 receptions for 1248 yards and nine touchdowns.  Oddly enough, Evans averaged almost exactly those same stats the past 2 seasons.

View PostC.Biscuit97, on 02 May 2014 - 01:32 PM, said:

Exactly.  The only thing they have i ncommon is their height.
Ugh. I meant to say that Evans averaged 50% more in receptions.

#12 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:38 PM

View PostKipers Hair, on 02 May 2014 - 01:36 PM, said:

Who was throwing Hill the ball again?

Josh Gordon must not be good because he had RG3 throw him the ball.  Poor logic.  Also, what conference has produced the best defensive backs in the last 5 years?  Hint, it's not the ACC.

#13 Manther

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:44 PM

View PostKipers Hair, on 02 May 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

This might be true...but Mike Evans has the look and feel of Stephan Hill.  Just ask the Jets how that worked out.  Hill didn't even have the numbers to back him, just the physical intangibles.  I think Evans has the same intangibles and was played up by Johnnie extending plays.
Stephen Hill only had about 30 catches his last year in College.  He was a physical specimen, not a football player.  Mike Evans broke records.  Stephen Hill is tall and skinny and only caught screen passes.  Mike Evans is tall and filled out and was a target the whole way down the field and especially in the red zone.  Stephen Hill was rated in the 3rd round when the draft started after moving up from where he was before the combine.  Mike Evans has been a first round pick all year and in the top ten for the last 3 months.

How are they comparable?  Height?

Regarding the original post, I agree with everything BUT the Mike Evans.

And, to follow up on another post, I do think Mike Evans made Johnny Football.

Lastly, on the original post, how can you say no QBs in the top 25 except Bridgewater (so, includes Manziel) and then Manziel made Evans and Evans is not that good.  So, neither of them are good and were just very lucky for the last 2 years?

Overall, good post and I agree with most of it.  Thanks!

#14 KikoSeeBallKikoGetBall

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 01:46 PM

Agree on Evans. I'd rather trade back and get Benjamin.

#15 Kipers Hair

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:06 PM

Maybe I need to clarify - Evans is not a top 15 guy in my book...second half of round 1 - sure.  Johnny F-Ball and he played off of each other well at the collage level - perhaps they owe each other a steak dinner for where they will be drafted.  At the pro level, no way Johnny should be a 1st rounder and Evans - has a chance to be a good Y receiver and red zone threat earl on...dominant X receiver - maybe, but lacks a complete grade to take him in the top 15.  Maybe I am just risk averse.

#16 mannc

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:14 PM

View PostKipers Hair, on 02 May 2014 - 12:59 PM, said:

Finally getting some research time in, comparing mocks with players and, if it shakes out as everyone thinks, the following players are going to be taken way too early:

* Any QB taken in the top 25 - Bridgewater is the only reasonably ready to play in the NFL
* Anthony Barr - at best, late 2nd round development player
* Eric Ebron - Not a top 25 guy.  Better athlete than football player
* Zack Martin - As a Tackle no way - as a Guard, OK
* Cody Lattimer - too raw for round 1.
* Mike Evans - In a real NFL offense, too limited for a top 10 pick.  Should thank Johnnie Football...
* Ra'Shede Hageman - Will be out of NFL in 4 years

We wont know for years, but the new salary structure promotes reaching..
So, Evans was not really that good; J Manziel made him what he was.  But on the other hand, Manziel is not very good either, and should not be drafted in the first round. Got it.  Thanks.

#17 kobe808lak

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:15 PM

Disagree on Evans, I think he will be a beast.  

Somewhat agree on Ebron but wouldn't be surprised if he plays up to his potential either.  I'm concerned about his drops.

I think both are perfect for today's NFL.  It's all about exploiting mismatches.

#18 ChandlerBing

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:29 PM

I too disagree with the Mike Evans/Johnny Manziel part. After watching Arkansas/Alabama/Auburn vs Texas AM, Mike Evans and the other WR Walker made plays on so many poorly thrown balls and were able to bail JM out by physically outmatching CB's and safeties. He is also terrible at throwing over the middle, saw multiple throws into double/triple coverage that were way off the mark and were either picked or easily batted down. He also does a terrible job of managing his pocket, breaking it and putting himself in trouble when no pressure is there. One of his trademark plays he runs back behind where his LT is engaging an end, creates pressure on himself runs backwards and LOBS the ball into the air about 10yards ahead of the LOS......only saving grace is his 6' 5 WR surrounded by 5 defenders is able to time his jump well and has strong hands.

I don't know If Evans will be successful, isn't very field fast and pushes off like it's normal think he can at best be a okay no1, but serious Manziel doubts.

Really agree about Barr, but some think he drops to the late first really hope the Bills aren't lookin his direction

Same with Martin, versatility is his game. Useful piece but you want superstar potential play in RD1 not a average guard who can switch in a pinch. The USC C Martin can do the same in 2nd/3rd.

Haven't watched Hageman so I can't talk.,

Latimer has the competition question and he has risen so fast it makes you wonder is the media hype machine is trying to pump another Blaine Gabbert.

#19 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:29 PM

Love the topic!!

On Evans I think that he is good but struggles in press coverage. He was dominated in that bowl game by Ross Cockrell of Duke (ACC). He isn't on my list of overvalued though because he has lots of raw ability.

Overvalued:
-Bradley Roby -as a Buckeye fan he is a workout warrior to me. He has fantastic physical skills but I thought that he struggled last year.
-Jake Mathews -he will be a good starter to me. If I am picking in the top 10 I don't want a good player -I want a guy that could be great. IMO that isn't Mathews. He is at his ceiling.
-Ha Ha Clinton-Dix -I just don't buy the Alabama guys for the most part. It is a great system with lots of great college players that typically get over drafted.
-Blake Bortles -He just doesn't do it for me. He kind of has a Jake Locker feel. Some physical skills and size but I still raw. If Bortles develops behind someone for a year or so maybe he will be better than I think.

Edited by Kirby Jackson, 02 May 2014 - 02:38 PM.


#20 H2o

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Posted 02 May 2014 - 02:36 PM

View PostCynical, on 02 May 2014 - 01:14 PM, said:

Fixed it for you.

Without Evans, Johnnie Football is not a potential first rounder, IMHO.

:huh: Tell that to the Duke defense that he torched in the Bowl game without Evans making any big plays. Johnny Football brought them back, almost single handedly, from a 38-14 halftime deficit for a crazy 52-48 win. They both complimented each other on the field, but both are surely talented enough to make it in the NFL and worthy of Top 10 1st Round selections.