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AFC East Winner or When will Brady decline?


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#1 Chas56

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 10:14 PM

Several other threads are talking about how many games Buffalo will win, playoffs, Vegas odds, etc. And it got me thinking about our division, and the way NE is the usual winner. At some point, that has to end. It just won't go on and on forever, so what would happen to spark that change, that shift in the division? Brady aging out. I hate the guy, but I respect his game. He has been a great QB for the past decade plus. But age has to catch up with him. It always does. The question is if happens this year, the next, or when? I searched and came up with this article. It says 37 is the average age an NFL QB breaks: https://www.profootb...-of-decline-qb/ Tom Brady turns 37 in August.

#2 Dragonborn10

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 10:21 PM

Jets defense looks as dominant as the 49ers.  Their offensive line still is not that good though.  Miami will be in rebuild mode for another two years because their QB is not NFL caliber.

As for the Bills it is all on EJ and Schwartz.  Spiller will disappoint again but I expect that.  If EJ can complete 60-62% of his passes, start 14 or more games, and the O-line stays healthy the offense should be ok. If Schwartz can get 90% of the QB pressure and improve the run defense by 30% or so (Spikes to MLB and Alonso to OLB) then the defense could be special.

#3 NoSaint

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 10:40 PM

I fully expect Brady to play more or less to his usual standards this year, but I'd say that his window is max 3 years right now and a serious injury could be the light switch getting flipped instead of a couple incremental drops over 3 years

#4 matter2003

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 11:19 PM

View PostNoSaint, on 21 May 2014 - 10:40 PM, said:

I fully expect Brady to play more or less to his usual standards this year, but I'd say that his window is max 3 years right now and a serious injury could be the light switch getting flipped instead of a couple incremental drops over 3 years

You've already started to see him slipping from being unbelievable to being simply good enough in a lot of games last year.  How fast he declines will be another thing...some decline overnight it seems while others can hang on for 5 or 6 years...

Expect to see more plays that he would have made in previous years to be missed this year as he is a split second slower and a few MPH weaker in his throws....

Edited by matter2003, 21 May 2014 - 11:20 PM.


#5 reddogblitz

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 11:31 PM

Seeing as to how Brady and Patsies were in AFC Championship Game last year I see no signs of them slowing down.  The question is not when the Patsies fail but when we are good enough to beat them?

I'm thinking 2014.

#6 FluffHead

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 11:40 PM

Id be shocked if Brady is anything but outstanding this year

#7 papazoid

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 12:02 AM

Bills 7-9 with EJ

Bills 11-5 if Brady was our QB.

#8 DallasMac

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 01:11 AM

View Postmatter2003, on 21 May 2014 - 11:19 PM, said:



You've already started to see him slipping from being unbelievable to being simply good enough in a lot of games last year.  How fast he declines will be another thing...some decline overnight it seems while others can hang on for 5 or 6 years...

Expect to see more plays that he would have made in previous years to be missed this year as he is a split second slower and a few MPH weaker in his throws....
I'd say this is more related to the talent around him.  I hate to say it but Brady is still playing at an elite level.  I'm still wondering why they drafted a Qb instead of getting him a playmaker.

#9 GunnerBill

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 04:24 AM

I'm not sure Tom Brady did play at an elite level last year.  Everyone goes on about his receiving corps and don't get me wrong there was a lack of talent there - but I saw him miss plays late in games that he would have made in the past and so much so that by the business end of the season they had pretty much turned into a running team with LaGarrette Blount being their key offensive weapon.  

Now don't get me wrong Brady was still playing at a level you can win 10 games with - but his regular season play would not, I would submit, have had him in the top 3 Quarterbacks in the AFC last season - and when was the last time you could say that?  

Having said all that I don't expect this descent to be rapid.  I think you will see him play at a similar level the next 2-3 years at least... and he might even, having got healthy and got a level of comfort with some of those young receivers, get back to an elite level this season.  But I think a lot of people look at the Patriots record last year and just say "yea Brady was elite" when you dig a bit deeper I'm just not sure that is true.

#10 NastyNateSoldiers

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 05:10 AM

View Postpapazoid, on 22 May 2014 - 12:02 AM, said:

Bills 7-9 with EJ

Bills 11-5 if Brady was our QB.
13-3 , 14-2 with Brady
We easily become the best team in division I say we win all 6gms . The Bills with Brady becomes instant SuperBowl favorites. Our team is stacked with talent add in a Hof Qb like Brady this offense can average over 30 a gm. How much better would that make our Defense? I say tons better.
I like our chances vs anyone including Seattle

Edited by NastyNateSoldiers, 22 May 2014 - 05:16 AM.


#11 bladiebla

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 05:23 AM

View PostChas56, on 21 May 2014 - 10:14 PM, said:

It says 37 is the average age an NFL QB breaks: https://www.profootb...-of-decline-qb/ Tom Brady* turns 37 in August.

Thing is he hasnt spend that much time behind bad olines/on his back. I see him reach 40 easy.

#12 machine gun kelly

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 05:47 AM

He didn't decline at all last year.  He had no names with no chemistry last year losing Hernandez, Gronk most of the year, and most importantly Welker.

I hate the Pats as much as anyone, but Brady is just as good as he was 5 years ago.  He'll go another three years easily and he loves to play the game.

The sad thing is it will be so tough to beat them as long as Brady is there.

#13 BuffaloFan68

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 06:48 AM

I predict Brady gets injured this year & misses 4 or more games.

#14 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 08:51 AM

Brady (or really the Pats*) are beatable these days, but he is still a damn good QB.

I've seen him play live several times and besides Drew Brees, he is one of the most cerebral QB's I've ever seen. Even if his physical skills decline, he will still be a top 5 QB. He's that good.

#15 Dorkington

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 08:55 AM

I hate saying it, but I think we're still 3rd or 4th best in the division. The Pats will be better as long as Brady stays good. The Jets have a dominant defense, and probably a more explosive offense (and arguably better coaching). I see Miami in a similar boat as us, missing a few pieces, especially at QB, with questionable coaching. Depending on how our new defense does, we could see a repeat of last year and get some wins against them, or if our new defense sucks, we'll be back in the cellar.

#16 prissythecat

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 09:03 AM

View PostDragonborn10, on 21 May 2014 - 10:21 PM, said:

Jets defense looks as dominant as the 49ers.  Their offensive line still is not that good though.  Miami will be in rebuild mode for another two years because their QB is not NFL caliber.

As for the Bills it is all on EJ and Schwartz.  Spiller will disappoint again but I expect that.  If EJ can complete 60-62% of his passes, start 14 or more games, and the O-line stays healthy the offense should be ok. If Schwartz can get 90% of the QB pressure and improve the run defense by 30% or so (Spikes to MLB and Alonso to OLB) then the defense could be special.

I ve seen a number of folks say that Tannehill is the real deal.

#17 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 09:25 AM

View Postpapazoid, on 22 May 2014 - 12:02 AM, said:

Bills 7-9 with EJ

Bills 11-5 if Brady was our QB.

Obviously, we'd have a better record with Brady.  But we have no idea what Manuel will do with a full season.  He went 4-6 as a rookie and when he left the field in 3 of those games with a lead, the defense couldn't hold it.

The PAts are in decline but the rest of the AFC, especially our division, isn't that good.  The Pats are doing Brady a disservice.  They should be in win at all cost mood like the Broncos.  They should have gone after a top wr in the draft or signed a guy in FA or traded for someone (Steve Smith, Andre Johnson).   Instead they are taking Qbs with 2nd round picks.  I'd be pissed if I was Brady.

View Postprissythecat, on 22 May 2014 - 09:03 AM, said:

I ve seen a number of folks say that Tannehill is the real deal.

He's a young QB so it's silly to write him off at this point.  Personally, I never have seen anything special about him.  It's also interesting that EJ was better than him as rookie (in less games) and people want to write off EJ already (Buffalo Barbarian who loves RT).

#18 sjjr

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 10:02 AM

The Pats have gone to a power run offense for a reason...they also drafted Mallett and Garoppollo...Brady best asset is his experience and right arm.  The Bills gave them fits in the opener last year and really should have won the game.  Both games should be close this year...it's time for the Bills to take a step forward.

#19 947

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 10:35 AM

The Pats are no longer an elite team. But they're still savvy enough to put themselves in position to get the breaks to fall their way. Last year they won 12 games despite never being dominant like the other top tier NFL teams. If a few breaks go the other way, they only win 9 games. That luck will eventually run out. Hopefully it starts now.

#20 starrymessenger

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 10:43 AM

Brady's skills have declined IMO, but his experience and smarts are top rung. Overall clearly still one of the top QBs.
And he can still execute at the same elite level on most downs/series. It's just that he can't do it as consistently, as in all the time, only most of the time, and he is more prone to having breakdowns in his execution, notably his accuracy. What the Pats did last year was mostly because of a strong running game. As soon as that was shut down, against Denver, they were pretty much done.
If the Bills have a good QB  (as in Manuel taking that big step up in his game) I see no reason why the Bills cannot be fully competitive in the AFC East, including against the Pats. If EJ fails to improve it will be a long frustrating year IMO. I don't buy the "he doesn't have to be very good to win" business. He absolutely needs to be good for the Bills to have a chance.