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QB Rating

How valuable as a statistic?

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#1 MrLocke

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Posted 25 May 2014 - 11:21 PM

Just curious as to how valuable people consider QB ratings to be? I got into a debate about quarterbacks with a Giants fan once. He basically said it's a sucker bet. He used Eli as an example. Had a rating of of 69.4 last season, but is considered a good qb.

I also know about the obvious flaw where QBs have an incentive to take sacks as opposed to throwing the ball away. A sack doesn't hurt the rating, but an incomplete pass would. An incomplete pass doesn't move the team back whereas a sack does.

Anyway just looking for some insight. Thanks.

#2 Wing Man

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 01:34 AM

Trent Edwards finished third overall in the NFL in QB rating his final season with the Bills. Quod erat demonstratum. :bag:

#3 FireChan

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 01:42 AM

View PostMrLocke, on 25 May 2014 - 11:21 PM, said:

Just curious as to how valuable people consider QB ratings to be? I got into a debate about quarterbacks with a Giants fan once. He basically said it's a sucker bet. He used Eli as an example. Had a rating of of 69.4 last season, but is considered a good qb.

I also know about the obvious flaw where QBs have an incentive to take sacks as opposed to throwing the ball away. A sack doesn't hurt the rating, but an incomplete pass would. An incomplete pass doesn't move the team back whereas a sack does.

Anyway just looking for some insight. Thanks.

Like all indicators, it has it's pros and cons. In the case of your example, Eli was bad last year and he had a bad rating last year. He's considered a good QB because of his past accomplishments. Not because of 2013.

#4 Doug Flutie Band

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 02:10 AM

before this last year Eli's QB ratings were 2012:88 2011:93 2010:85 2009:93 2008:86

#5 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 07:00 AM

EJ's rating so far this year is 0.00. He stinks.

#6 over 20 years of fanhood

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 07:01 AM


View PostWing Man, on 26 May 2014 - 01:34 AM, said:

Trent Edwards finished third overall in the NFL in QB rating his final season with the Bills. Quod erat demonstratum. :bag:

With 73.8? Not bloody likely

http://en.wikipedia....i/Trent_Edwards

#7 BuffaloBillsForever

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 07:12 AM

View PostMrLocke, on 25 May 2014 - 11:21 PM, said:

Just curious as to how valuable people consider QB ratings to be? I got into a debate about quarterbacks with a Giants fan once. He basically said it's a sucker bet. He used Eli as an example. Had a rating of of 69.4 last season, but is considered a good qb.

I also know about the obvious flaw where QBs have an incentive to take sacks as opposed to throwing the ball away. A sack doesn't hurt the rating, but an incomplete pass would. An incomplete pass doesn't move the team back whereas a sack does.

Anyway just looking for some insight. Thanks.

Yes it is a flawed statistic. One example is it overvalues innefective one dimensional QB's that attempt/complete high percentage throws < 5 yards. Like all stats you need to have context as well (watch the games) to truly evaluate a player. In combination stats are powerful.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever, 26 May 2014 - 07:30 AM.


#8 prissythecat

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 07:50 AM

View PostWing Man, on 26 May 2014 - 01:34 AM, said:

Trent Edwards finished third overall in the NFL in QB rating his final season with the Bills. Quod erat demonstratum. :bag:




Uh.  What unreliable website did you get that from?

#9 Max997

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 09:00 AM

I care more about completion percentage and yards per attempt

#10 MrLocke

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 11:53 AM

Oh yeah! I forgot too that Rob Johnson looked like a decent qb if you went by QB rating. Career QB rating of 83.6 85.5 while in Buffalo. Troy Aikman wqas 81.6 for his career.

Troy Aikman is a great example of why I don't think stats tell the full story of how good a qb is.  He never threw for more than 23 td passes in a season, but I don't know anyone who would say he's not great.

#11 Rocky Landing

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 12:53 PM

The formula for the passer rating is: [(a + b + c + d)/6] x 100, whereas a = [(completions/attempts x 100) – 30] x 0.05; b = [(yards/att) – 3] x 0.25; c = (TD/att) x 20; and d = 2.375 – (interceptions/att x 25).

Q: What’s missing from this equation? A: any variables that include the performance of any other player on the field other than the quarterback. So, if a QB has no offensive line to speak of and is only given an average of 1.6 seconds to get rid of the ball before being sacked, their rating will be low. Or, if a QB is playing a superior defense, their rating will be lower. If a QB has phenomenal receivers, their rating will be higher. That's why Russel Wilson can have a rating of 49.6 against the Cardinals in week 15, and a 102.1 against the Rams the following week. It's worthy to note that their are no published p-values, critical values, or significance levels (at least that I have ever found) for the passer rating. It has no use for statistical analysis.

I think that the only use for the passer rating is for (crudely) tracking a single QB's performance against weekly variables such as the one's mentioned above. It has almost no value for comparing different players on different teams. In fact, I might go as far as to say that it is a better indicator of team performance than of QB performance.

#12 over 20 years of fanhood

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 12:57 PM

View PostMrLocke, on 26 May 2014 - 11:53 AM, said:

Oh yeah! I forgot too that Rob Johnson looked like a decent qb if you went by QB rating. Career QB rating of 83.6 85.5 while in Buffalo. Troy Aikman wqas 81.6 for his career.

Troy Aikman is a great example of why I don't think stats tell the full story of how good a qb is.  He never threw for more than 23 td passes in a season, but I don't know anyone who would say he's not great.

Rob Johnson's problem was the sacks right? As pointed out, definitely the one omission from the rating.

I will say the game has changed a lot.  Aikman, Kelly, elway, all the greats... They had ratings not even close to what you see today in the new nfl.  Of course safeties could decapitate WRs, and holding clutching grabbing etc was the norm.

QBs were also brutalized in comparison to today's game.

I'd say it's a good metric to compare QBs over a season, definitely not decade to decade, etc

#13 Max997

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 06:02 PM

View PostMrLocke, on 26 May 2014 - 11:53 AM, said:

Troy Aikman is a great example of why I don't think stats tell the full story of how good a qb is.  He never threw for more than 23 td passes in a season, but I don't know anyone who would say he's not great.

He never had to throw more then that and more importantly didn't care.

Edited by Max997, 26 May 2014 - 06:03 PM.


#14 MrLocke

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Posted 26 May 2014 - 06:31 PM

View PostMax997, on 26 May 2014 - 06:02 PM, said:

He never had to throw more then that and more importantly didn't care.

When you have back like Emmitt Smith you feed him the ball!