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TE discussion - Moeaki/Chandler, Bills wanted Ebron at #9....


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#1 bourbonboy

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 08:59 AM

FYI - saw this in Rotoworld, and didn't see it posted here yet:

WGR 550 Buffalo's Joe Buscaglia suggests Tony Moeaki is a threat to Scott Chandler's starting job.

Moeaki spent almost the spring with Buffalo's first-team offense, while Chandler was limited in OTAs and excused from minicamp due to a family matter. Moeaki is a better blocker and athlete than Chandler, and the Bills at very least can put him to use in two-tight end sets. Per Buscaglia, Buffalo wanted Eric Ebron at No. 9 had it not found a trade partner to move up for Sammy Watkins.

#2 MattM

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 09:23 AM

View Postbourbonboy, on 23 June 2014 - 08:59 AM, said:

FYI - saw this in Rotoworld, and didn't see it posted here yet:

WGR 550 Buffalo's Joe Buscaglia suggests Tony Moeaki is a threat to Scott Chandler's starting job.

Moeaki spent almost the spring with Buffalo's first-team offense, while Chandler was limited in OTAs and excused from minicamp due to a family matter. Moeaki is a better blocker and athlete than Chandler, and the Bills at very least can put him to use in two-tight end sets. Per Buscaglia, Buffalo wanted Eric Ebron at No. 9 had it not found a trade partner to move up for Sammy Watkins.

I loved that pickup last year and said so at the time.  If Moeaki can stay healthy--and with him, that's not a "big" if, but a HUGE if--expect him to catch 50 balls for about 600-700 yards and 5-6 TDs.  The one bummer is that he's only signed through this year, so if he puts up those kinds of numbers, the Bills can expect to have to pay him decent money to retain him (although hopefully they'd get some kind of hometown/injury history discount).....

#3 dollars 2 donuts

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 09:33 AM

Not that we should be fool hardy, but if this pans out I am not exactly worried about the money to sign him given our cap space and the unlikelihood that he puts up Graham numbers.

#4 RuntheDamnBall

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 09:37 AM

View PostMattM, on 23 June 2014 - 09:23 AM, said:

I loved that pickup last year and said so at the time.  If Moeaki can stay healthy--and with him, that's not a "big" if, but a HUGE if--expect him to catch 50 balls for about 600-700 yards and 5-6 TDs.  The one bummer is that he's only signed through this year, so if he puts up those kinds of numbers, the Bills can expect to have to pay him decent money to retain him (although hopefully they'd get some kind of hometown/injury history discount).....
Well said.

I think to expect a lot from Moeaki is very dangerous, but if we were to apply an analogy of a team like the Oakland As where you take these kinds of calculated risks, some of them do in fact pay off.  As such, you get big production for a small amount of money, then wash your hands of that risk when the dollars don't line up.  A successful campaign from Moeaki buys them time to examine TE prospects going forward, saves money that they can hopefully use to extend some of their other players, and perhaps makes him feel comfortable re-signing here.

#5 Flip Johnson

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 10:10 AM

Chandler is a bit of an underrated player - he had 53 catches for 655 yards last year. He also caught about 66% of his targets - a much higher number than SJ (52%) or Woods (below 50%).

That said, I don't think Chandler presents huge matchup problems for our opponents given his lack of speed. I do think this year we'll see some two TE sets with Moeaki and Chandler on the field, and the combination may have something like 80 catches for 1,000. In terms of EJ's development, I love the idea of additional big targets.

Last year the non-Chandler TEs gave the Bills very little in terms of offensive production. If Moeaki's healthy I don't think that will be the case.

#6 John from Hemet

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 10:48 AM

Been saying it for a while.....Chandler is a red zone threat TE.....and Meaoki is more of a "between the 20's" TE

That is how they should be used.

#7 Luxy312

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:08 AM

I like Scott Chandler for his size (6-7, 265) over Moeaki (6-3, 255).  That said, last year was the second straight season that Chandler has had to deal with knee issues.  If it's speed at TE that the team is looking for, I question why they wouldn't have Chris Gragg on the field more.  He's the same size as Moeaki, but has run 4.5 40's.  I personally don't care who wins the starting job.  As long as they give us decent production and take some pressure off our WR's, I'm good with it.

#8 Mark Vader

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:19 AM

View PostLuxy312, on 23 June 2014 - 11:08 AM, said:

I like Scott Chandler for his size (6-7, 265) over Moeaki (6-3, 255).  That said, last year was the second straight season that Chandler has had to deal with knee issues.  If it's speed at TE that the team is looking for, I question why they wouldn't have Chris Gragg on the field more.  He's the same size as Moeaki, but has run 4.5 40's.  I personally don't care who wins the starting job.  As long as they give us decent production and take some pressure off our WR's, I'm good with it.
This is why it is important for us to look at who our 3rd TE will be.

Chandler has had issues with his knee recently, and Moeaki has been labeled as injury prone. Does anyone think both of these guys will make it through the entire season without getting hurt?

Our 3rd TE, be it Smith, Gragg or Caussin will have an important role to fill this season. Because chances are they will receive a significant amount of playing time.

#9 Luxy312

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:23 AM

View PostMark Vader, on 23 June 2014 - 11:19 AM, said:

This is why it is important for us to look at who our 3rd TE will be.

Chandler has had issues with his knee recently, and Moeaki has been labeled as injury prone. Does anyone think both of these guys will make it through the entire season without getting hurt?

Our 3rd TE, be it Smith, Gragg or Caussin will have an important role to fill this season. Because chances are they will receive a significant amount of playing time.

Not sure how you feel about it, but I'm a bit concerned about the entire cast from a health perspective.  Besides Chandler, Smith sitting out of OTA's.  Caussin missed the last two seasons with an ACL and then a hip injury.  To me, it then comes down to Moeaki and Gragg.  If Moeaki dings up easily, that leaves this team woefully thin at TE.

#10 Mark Vader

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:29 AM

View PostLuxy312, on 23 June 2014 - 11:23 AM, said:

Not sure how you feel about it, but I'm a bit concerned about the entire cast from a health perspective.  Besides Chandler, Smith sitting out of OTA's.  Caussin missed the last two seasons with an ACL and then a hip injury.  To me, it then comes down to Moeaki and Gragg.  If Moeaki dings up easily, that leaves this team woefully thin at TE.
No doubt that there is a lot of risk at this position.

I like Chandler as a player, he's been a reliable and underrated TE for us, and if Moeaki can play like he used to, then we have something very good for our offense.

Let's just hope they stay healthy.

#11 ChandlerBing

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:30 AM

Strange how before the draft it's "we have too many TE's" and now we don't have the quality :thumbsup:. Hopefully Moeaki can stay healthy, remember him catching a few balls against us when we shredded the Chiefs under Gailey.

I'm not to hopeful about Gragg, sounds like he hasn't improved. Some of his negatives out of college were that he was raw in terms of routes and I believe he had a case of the dropsies. Bubble guy, especially if a few TE's end up cut around preseason.

#12 BigBuff423

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:55 AM

View Postdollars 2 donuts, on 23 June 2014 - 09:33 AM, said:

Not that we should be fool hardy, but if this pans out I am not exactly worried about the money to sign him given our cap space and the unlikelihood that he puts up Graham numbers.

Not sure why you're concerned about their cap space next year. The Fitz dead money will be finished this year along with the SJ dead money, so they're going to be in great CAP position, at least as good as they were this year....

#13 over 20 years of fanhood

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 11:56 AM

Chandler has good hands and is a HUGE target at 6'7"...

Whether he's the first, second or third in the depth chart, he's an asset to the team.  Id peg him as second best....

In general, Cuts are going to be hard for them this year.  Team has more depth than I can remember in ages.

#14 Dibs

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 12:04 PM

View PostFlip Johnson, on 23 June 2014 - 10:10 AM, said:

Chandler is a bit of an underrated player - he had 53 catches for 655 yards last year. He also caught about 66% of his targets - a much higher number than SJ (52%) or Woods (below 50%).

.......

Are you sure about the stat on Woods?  I'm fairly certain that somebody linked a dropped passes list in a different thread and Woods was one of the best in the league at not dropping catchable balls?

#15 Triple Threat

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 12:06 PM

View PostFlip Johnson, on 23 June 2014 - 10:10 AM, said:

Chandler is a bit of an underrated player - he had 53 catches for 655 yards last year. He also caught about 66% of his targets - a much higher number than SJ (52%) or Woods (below 50%).

That said, I don't think Chandler presents huge matchup problems for our opponents given his lack of speed. I do think this year we'll see some two TE sets with Moeaki and Chandler on the field, and the combination may have something like 80 catches for 1,000. In terms of EJ's development, I love the idea of additional big targets.

Last year the non-Chandler TEs gave the Bills very little in terms of offensive production. If Moeaki's healthy I don't think that will be the case.

I think most Bills fans undervalue Chandler.  I wouldn't go so far as to say he's a huge matchup problem for defenses but he's certainly an issue.

#16 Mark80

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 12:28 PM

View PostRuntheDamnBall, on 23 June 2014 - 09:37 AM, said:

Well said.

I think to expect a lot from Moeaki is very dangerous, but if we were to apply an analogy of a team like the Oakland As where you take these kinds of calculated risks, some of them do in fact pay off.  As such, you get big production for a small amount of money, then wash your hands of that risk when the dollars don't line up.  A successful campaign from Moeaki buys them time to examine TE prospects going forward, saves money that they can hopefully use to extend some of their other players, and perhaps makes him feel comfortable re-signing here.

Not on topic really, but as a huge A's fan I have to correct you a bit here.  They do not take calculated risks.  Really, the only risk they have taken lately is the signing of Cespedes.  They win by not overpaying veterans and often trading them away before they have a chance to demand enormous contracts for a bunch of young prospects.  Most notably, young pitching prospects.  They basically turnover their pitching staff every 4 years.  They then stock their offense with a lot of platoon type players that can play numerous positions as well and set their lineups based off of the opposing pitchers (mostly righty / lefty matchups).  For example, while the Yankees are paying Brian McCann $17M per year for 8HRs and a .222 BA this year, the A's are platooning John Jaso (a lefty) 7 HRs and .271 BA and Derek Norris (a righty) 8 HRs and .302 BA for a combined salary of less than $3M.  Combined these two make one of the best catchers in the league, if that makes sense.  Their system is based almost exclusively on analytics, which by definition is not risk based.  After all, the best predictor of future performance is past performance.

Edited by Mark80, 23 June 2014 - 12:33 PM.


#17 Flip Johnson

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 12:56 PM

View PostDibs, on 23 June 2014 - 12:04 PM, said:

Are you sure about the stat on Woods?  I'm fairly certain that somebody linked a dropped passes list in a different thread and Woods was one of the best in the league at not dropping catchable balls?

Woods doesn't drop the ball - he just had a lot of inaccurate passes thrown at him.According to espn.com Woods caught 40 of 86 targets and SJ was 52 of 100.

#18 RuntheDamnBall

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 12:57 PM

View PostMark80, on 23 June 2014 - 12:28 PM, said:

Not on topic really, but as a huge A's fan I have to correct you a bit here.  They do not take calculated risks.  Really, the only risk they have taken lately is the signing of Cespedes.  They win by not overpaying veterans and often trading them away before they have a chance to demand enormous contracts for a bunch of young prospects.  Most notably, young pitching prospects.  They basically turnover their pitching staff every 4 years.  They then stock their offense with a lot of platoon type players that can play numerous positions as well and set their lineups based off of the opposing pitchers (mostly righty / lefty matchups).  For example, while the Yankees are paying Brian McCann $17M per year for 8HRs and a .222 BA this year, the A's are platooning John Jaso (a lefty) 7 HRs and .271 BA and Derek Norris (a righty) 8 HRs and .302 BA for a combined salary of less than $3M.  Combined these two make one of the best catchers in the league, if that makes sense.  Their system is based almost exclusively on analytics, which by definition is not risk based.  After all, the best predictor of future performance is past performance.
I think we're saying two versions of the same thing.  Think about a guy like Frank Thomas.  When he could be obtained for $500K he was a very well-calculated risk.  In the eyes of the White Sox his skills had diminished.  The As didn't need him to be 1995 Frank Thomas, though.  They just needed him to be very good.  He was beyond that.  He played his way into a very expensive contract for the Blue Jays -- one the As knew he wasn't going to be worth by the end of it.  He provided huge ROI for the As.

Bartolo Colon is another recent example.  These are really low-risk "risks," in terms of financial outlay, but they do cost roster spots and you have to be willing to give guys a chance.

#19 Dorkington

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 12:58 PM

View PostBigBuff423, on 23 June 2014 - 11:55 AM, said:

Not sure why you're concerned about their cap space next year. The Fitz dead money will be finished this year along with the SJ dead money, so they're going to be in great CAP position, at least as good as they were this year....
Re-read his statement. He said he's not worried about the money...

#20 voodoo poonani

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Posted 23 June 2014 - 03:48 PM

View PostLuxy312, on 23 June 2014 - 11:08 AM, said:

I like Scott Chandler for his size (6-7, 265) over Moeaki (6-3, 255).  That said, last year was the second straight season that Chandler has had to deal with knee issues.  If it's speed at TE that the team is looking for, I question why they wouldn't have Chris Gragg on the field more.  He's the same size as Moeaki, but has run 4.5 40's.  I personally don't care who wins the starting job.  As long as they give us decent production and take some pressure off our WR's, I'm good with it.

Observations from OTAs was that Moeaki was the better athlete