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WGR phoney QB argument


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#1 jahbonas

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:48 PM

Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument.
I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick
The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick:
1- Seattle
2- Denver
3- San Fran
4- New England
5- New Orleans
6 - Bengals
7 - Philadelphia
8- KC Chiefs

Thats 8 of last years starting playoff QBs - none we acquired by their current team using a 1st rd pick - NONE.
We also have $55 million projected cap room next year

And can they please tell us who this mystery qb they would draft with the pick next year is that would come in and lead us to the playoffs?

Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons  - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired

#2 sodbuster

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:57 PM

Thank you.

#3 yall

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 05:58 PM

Think of all the soda and crab legs Jameis Winston could steal at Wegmans if we only had that 1st rounder next year!

#4 kdiggz

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:00 PM

I'm all about picking up QB's in free agency over the draft any day of the week. We should have grabbed Alex Smith in addition to drafting EJ. We would have been a playoff team this year and last year with Alex Smith. Then after a couple of seasons of watching and learning then maybe EJ would be ready to take over. Drafting QB's in round 1 and expecting them to start right away is dumb. It hardly ever works

View Postyall, on 23 July 2014 - 05:58 PM, said:

Think of all the soda and crab legs Jameis Winston could steal at Wegmans if we only had that 1st rounder next year!
Lucky for us he isn't coming out next year

#5 Ohiostyle

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:00 PM

Hmmm... Very interesting. I would certainly look toward acquiring a qb using these guys methods instead of the traditional 'draft in rd 1 and cross your fingers for two years'. It just rarely seems to work, and you have to reset everything and try again. I'd much rather throw darts at journeymen, and undervalued late round picks who sat for a few years behind a vet.

#6 YoloinOhio

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:11 PM

View Postyall, on 23 July 2014 - 05:58 PM, said:

Think of all the soda and crab legs Jameis Winston could steal at Wegmans if we only had that 1st rounder next year!
who, btw, isn't even declaring next year if you believe him, his dad, and coach. Plus the fact I'm not sold on him yet either as an nfl QB and oh, EJ is his mentor so .... Awkward.

View Postjahbonas, on 23 July 2014 - 05:48 PM, said:

Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument.
I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick
The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick:
1- Seattle
2- Denver
3- San Fran
4- New England
5- New Orleans
6 - Bengals
7 - Philadelphia
8- KC Chiefs

Thats 8 of last years starting playoff QBs - none we acquired by their current team using a 1st rd pick - NONE.
We also have $55 million projected cap room next year

And can they please tell us who this mystery qb they would draft with the pick next year is that would come in and lead us to the playoffs?

Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons  - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired
exactly! I have been saying this all along. Personally, I think EJ gets 3 years. I do not think he will perform poorly this year. However, if that is not the case ( or the new owner cleans house and EJs regime leaves) there is no issue with taking a guy in the 2nd. Hard to say who will be out there in FA at this point though.

#7 BillsVet

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:29 PM

View Postjahbonas, on 23 July 2014 - 05:48 PM, said:

Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument.
I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick
The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick:

1- Seattle
2- Denver
3- San Fran
4- New England
5- New Orleans
6 - Bengals
7 - Philadelphia
8- KC Chiefs

Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons  - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired

I find it ironic that Buddy Nix could have selected Seattle's, San Francisco's, Cincinnati's, and Philadelphia's QB's between 2011 and 2012.  

But what risk is it to Doug Whaley?  He may well be out of job in January if new ownership takes over and then it's on their hand-picked guy at GM to go into 2015 with little at QB should EJ fail.

#8 Spillnation

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:38 PM

Eh... we've got 3 young guys who have not reached their ceiling yet. I'm hoping the odds are that 1 of them will pan out (no preference who). I will say this, the hall of fame game will probably settle the dispute over who is number 2 and I'm excited to watch. Anyone know if it is televised on cable? I don't wanna waste cash at the bar... but I will.

#9 bills1960

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 06:42 PM

Though that is a striking number, circumstances change each year. If EJ does fail, and we have an off season similar to last season in terms QB availability, we're screwed. The only QB on the market this pas off-season, either on the trading block or FA, was Michael Vick (or Matt Schaub/Fitz if you really think they're starters).

The Brees/Alex Smith scenario, where there's two starting QB's on one roster, is a near impossibility for next year. Name one team with two desirable, franchise-type QB's right now.

All I'm saying is, I don't love the second round QB's of the past two drafts, and if that continues we're doubly in trouble. Additionally I doubt Alex Smith or Andy Dalton will finish the regular season without a contract. Barring the outside chance of Tony Romo or Sam Bradford (yikes), I can only really see guys like Cousins, Ponder, Hoyer or Jake Locker being available to us. Agree or disagree with the WGR guys, but that list you comprised does not accurately reflect the level of difficulty that comes along with finding a franchise QB without a first round pick.

#10 frogger

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:04 PM

Wait, buffalo has projected 55 million in cap room?  Who needs to be re-signed?  Dareus? Spiller? Jackson? Maybe Spikes?

#11 It's in My Blood

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:05 PM

View PostSpillnation, on 23 July 2014 - 06:38 PM, said:

Eh... we've got 3 young guys who have not reached their ceiling yet. I'm hoping the odds are that 1 of them will pan out (no preference who). I will say this, the hall of fame game will probably settle the dispute over who is number 2 and I'm excited to watch. Anyone know if it is televised on cable? I don't wanna waste cash at the bar... but I will.

8pm - NBC

#12 Big Blitz

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:16 PM

I like to think Whaley made the trade because he is almost certain Winston and maybe even Mariotta are not coming out.  

Thus feels the group of QBs that are/will are.....meh--maybe kinda good.  Nothing to lose sleep over.

The EJ panic/criticism isn't worth it.  Did any of you have him in your top 5 of QBs last year...let alone a first rounder?


If this offense fails its on Hackett and Marrone.  For failing to get something out of it.  And if it does fail because of EJ thats on them to.  EJ was not a Cam Newton or RGIII prospect.


EJ should play with a nothing to lose attitude.  Just let it rip man.

#13 JR in Pittsburgh

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:19 PM

View Postyall, on 23 July 2014 - 05:58 PM, said:

Think of all the soda and crab legs Jameis Winston could steal at Wegmans if we only had that 1st rounder next year!

Do they still call wegman's soft drinks "wpop-- dynamite!!"

#14 Pondslider

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:27 PM

View PostSpillnation, on 23 July 2014 - 06:38 PM, said:

Eh... we've got 3 young guys who have not reached their ceiling yet. I'm hoping the odds are that 1 of them will pan out (no preference who). I will say this, the hall of fame game will probably settle the dispute over who is number 2 and I'm excited to watch. Anyone know if it is televised on cable? I don't wanna waste cash at the bar... but I will.

The hall of fame game being so early is typically the worst preseason game.  I doubt it will settle anything other than "how many drinks will make this palatable." The vegas line right now is sitting at "a lot" but it's expected to go up as we get closer to game day.

#15 Mark Vader

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:30 PM

View Postfrogger, on 23 July 2014 - 07:04 PM, said:

Wait, buffalo has projected 55 million in cap room?  Who needs to be re-signed?  Dareus? Spiller? Jackson? Maybe Spikes?
55 million? Where has that been reported?

#16 3rdand12

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 07:55 PM

View PostBig Blitz, on 23 July 2014 - 07:16 PM, said:

I like to think Whaley made the trade because he is almost certain Winston and maybe even Mariotta are not coming out.  

Thus feels the group of QBs that are/will are.....meh--maybe kinda good.  Nothing to lose sleep over.

The EJ panic/criticism isn't worth it.  Did any of you have him in your top 5 of QBs last year...let alone a first rounder?


If this offense fails its on Hackett and Marrone.  For failing to get something out of it.  And if it does fail because of EJ thats on them to.  EJ was not a Cam Newton or RGIII prospect.


EJ should play with a nothing to lose attitude.  Just let it rip man.
Valid discussion .
but i have highlighted my favorite .

#17 respk

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 08:23 PM

I think EJ has this year and next to show he is capable.  Before year 4 of EJ the terrible, Whaley saves his job and some or all of the coaching staff is gone.  In year five if no competent QB has been found, Whaley is gone.  

Of course when a new owner buys the team they may all be gone anyways.

#18 snamsnoops

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 08:27 PM

View PostMark Vader, on 23 July 2014 - 07:30 PM, said:

55 million? Where has that been reported?
TBD thread! LOL

#19 Thurman#1

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:19 PM

View Postjahbonas, on 23 July 2014 - 05:48 PM, said:

Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument.
I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick
The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick:
1- Seattle
2- Denver
3- San Fran
4- New England
5- New Orleans
6 - Bengals
7 - Philadelphia
8- KC Chiefs

Thats 8 of last years starting playoff QBs - none we acquired by their current team using a 1st rd pick - NONE.
We also have $55 million projected cap room next year

And can they please tell us who this mystery qb they would draft with the pick next year is that would come in and lead us to the playoffs?

Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons  - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired



That's not a phony argument.  Just the opposite, it's a real concern, assuming EJ doesn't work out.  Right now, there's still a very reasonable chance he'll work out, but if you assume he doesn't, not having a first rounder would be a killer blow.

Assuming also that if EJ doesn't have a good year that neither of the other guys has shown himself any more likely to become a franchise guy ... big big concern, it's the risk they knew they were taking with Sammy.


As for the logic you use to reach this conclusion, come on, kid yourself that a Peyton Manning or a Drew Brees will be available next year all you want, but it's not going to happen.  Nor are the odds anything but extremely slight that there would even be an Alex Smith type.  The teams your argument works for are Seattle, San Fran, New England*, Cincy and Philly.  That's five out of 32 teams that have managed to draft a QB good enough to take them to a Super Bowl outside the first round - and that's assuming that Cincy and Philly's QBs are in fact that good; they may not be.

"Very competent QBs hit the market ..." very seldom if you're talking guys that you want to build around.  It's not a mistake that so very very few examples can be included in your post.  You need to set your sights on a QB in the top ten or so in the league because it's so unusual for a team with a QB who's not in the top ten - or at least capable of playing in the top ten for extended periods of time even if he doesn't belong there long-term, to win a Super Bowl.  How many guys in the top ten have hit the market in the last twenty years?  Peyton, Brees, Steve Young.  Kurt Warner. Can you include Alex Smith?  Let's throw him in.  Pennington?  Before his injury absolutely a top ten guy, but after, nope.  Favre, though nobody knew it at the time, but he clearly fits.  Looked like Schaub for a while, but he's never played top ten for an extended period of time.  Is Cutler a guy who can take you to the Super Bowl, a top ten guy?  Maybe you can think of on one or two more.  But that's very few in twenty years and when those guys come available you're often fighting other teams to get him.  The odds are really high against this happening.

The phony argument is yours, that we would expect a first-year guy to come in and lead us to the playoffs.  If we had a first-rounder and were convinced Manuel won't ever develop enough, we'd be picking a guy based on his expected career, not his expected first year.  None of those guys except  Russell Wilson was good enough to give a realistic Super Bowl shot the first year, not Brady, not Brees, not Peyton,k not Kaepernick ... the first year you hope, but you don't expect squat.

As for who the guy we would draft if we had that first rounder would be, there's no way to know.  We had no idea before the final season that Cam Newton would vault into the first round, or Russell Wilson or Blake Bortles or RG III or Tannehill or ... I could go on and on and on.

It really was huge giving up that first rounder next year.

#20 Thurman#1

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 09:45 PM

View Postfrogger, on 23 July 2014 - 07:04 PM, said:

Wait, buffalo has projected 55 million in cap room?  Who needs to be re-signed?  Dareus? Spiller? Jackson? Maybe Spikes?

First, that $55 mill doesn't account for the Bills recent habit of rolling over their dead money to the next year whenever possible.  Just Stevie is likely to account for $10 mill or so of that $55 mill.  

As for who we'll need to re-sign, Dareus, Cordy Glenn, Jerry Hughes, Gilmore can be negotiated with,  Spiller or Bryce Brown or both,   Lower level guys who could be more or less necessary after this year depending on how things go in Pears, Freddie, Spikes, Searcy, Hairston, Moeaki, Corbin Bryant and Stefan Charles ...  Many have suggested the Bills may ask Mario to re-neg, though I'm not convinced.

We'll be in good shape but that $55 mill is very deceptive.