Fantasy projections for Hogan. IMO he's worth drafting in case JE gets hurt, otherwise he's a risky start, but probably will have a couple really nice stat games...
ESPN's fantasy value:ESPN Fantasy Projection: The Patriots badly needed to upgrade their talent at wide receiver, so they snatched Hogan away from the Bills with a three-year, $12 million contract. Hogan's hands don't always cooperate. He dropped 8.5 percent of his targets last season, which was the worst rate among the 85 wide receivers who saw at least 50 passes. Still, if Hogan earns an every-down role in the Patriots' offense, he'll be a lock for fantasy relevance. He is well worth the cost of a late-round pick.
Pro FB focus:
Since he plays a similar role to Edelman, it’s fair to think the Patriots brought him in to be Edelman insurance; the offense was woefully inefficient at times while Edelman was out of the lineup last season.
But Hogan could still see the field even if Edelman stays healthy. The Patriots got rid of Brandon LaFell after the 2015 season, and while they re-signed Keshawn Martin, he’s far from a lock in the lineup. And with Amendola’s status with the team still not set in stone, Hogan’s path to playing time could be traversable.
With that said, even if he does see the field a fair amount, he would be, at best, Tom Brady’s third option behind Edelman and Rob Gronkowski — and maybe even his fourth option if Dion Lewis or James White are heavily utilized again.
If Hogan is able to win a healthy amount of snaps with New England, he has flex potential in PPR leagues. But that’s the best case scenario.
The more likely scenario is that Hogan doesn’t see enough targets — at least consistently — to warrant immediate fantasy consideration. Knowing the Patriots, he could see 10 targets one week and just three over the next two weeks combined.
Chris Hogan caught 4-of-5 targets for 53 yards in Thursday's preseason game.
He also caught a two-point conversion. Hogan was New England's most targeted pass catcher while Week 1 starter Jimmy Garoppolo was in the game. Hogan could be an important chain mover on the boundary for the Pats, but in a crowded targets landscape, he's just a WR5 for fantasy purposes.
Edited by ricojes, 19 August 2016 - 09:43 AM.