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First Round Draft Strategy


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#21 IgotBILLStopay

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 09:52 AM

After devouring reams of internet words, watching hours (yes it shd add up to at least 50 hours of various videos), here is my dream scenario:

 

Bills do two trades:

 

first with the Browns' #12 (who probably want to draft Trubisky - who the Saints also appear to have some interest in) or the Cardinals' #13 (who probably want to draft Mahomes or Trubisky) for a third rounder.

 

second trade with Tennessee (who wants a WR), Redskins or Tampa Bay (who both want Fournette or McCaffrey), Denver (who may want a QB), Lions (who may want Howard if he is still available) or the Texans or Chiefs (who want a QB) for a#2 and #4.

 

Then Bills have a #1, 2 #2, 2 #3, 2 #4 to play with.

 

Draft BPA from LB - Redick, Foster, Cunningham; WR - Davis or Williams (whoever is not taken), CB Humphrey, S Peppers - whoever is left

 

Round 2 -WR -  Zay Jones, JuJu, Curtis Samuel OT - Garrett Bolles, Ramczyk; LB - Cunnningham; CB Gareon Conley, Jalen Tabor, Sidney Jones,  Awuzie, S - Peppers; TE - Njoku - depends on who is left and who we draft in Round 1

 

Round 3 - Too many possibilities to list here because it depends on what we pick in rounds 1 and 2. 



#22 SoCal Deek

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 02:09 PM

Bills to Pay

I think your strategy makes a lot sense!

It appears everyone is coming to the same conclusion that there just isn't a single player that the Bills HAVE TO have tonight...but that isn't true for other teams around the league. I'm pretty certain one of those Teams is going to desperately want a player at #10. Take advantage of the opportunity, swap the pick, and acquire another one in the process.

Get 'er done!

#23 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 03:25 PM

Bills to Pay

I think your strategy makes a lot sense!

It appears everyone is coming to the same conclusion that there just isn't a single player that the Bills HAVE TO have tonight...but that isn't true for other teams around the league. I'm pretty certain one of those Teams is going to desperately want a player at #10. Take advantage of the opportunity, swap the pick, and acquire another one in the process.

Get 'er done!

This!!

#24 Pete

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 03:40 PM

agreed.  I would trade down, and then trade down again.  The strength of this draft is safetys, wide receivers, tight ends, and cornerbacks- all positions of need.   I would  target those 4 positions heavily



#25 joesixpack

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 03:54 PM

After devouring reams of internet words, watching hours (yes it shd add up to at least 50 hours of various videos), here is my dream scenario:

 

Bills do two trades:

 

first with the Browns' #12 (who probably want to draft Trubisky - who the Saints also appear to have some interest in) or the Cardinals' #13 (who probably want to draft Mahomes or Trubisky) for a third rounder.

 

second trade with Tennessee (who wants a WR), Redskins or Tampa Bay (who both want Fournette or McCaffrey), Denver (who may want a QB), Lions (who may want Howard if he is still available) or the Texans or Chiefs (who want a QB) for a#2 and #4.

 

Then Bills have a #1, 2 #2, 2 #3, 2 #4 to play with.

 

Draft BPA from LB - Redick, Foster, Cunningham; WR - Davis or Williams (whoever is not taken), CB Humphrey, S Peppers - whoever is left

 

Round 2 -WR -  Zay Jones, JuJu, Curtis Samuel OT - Garrett Bolles, Ramczyk; LB - Cunnningham; CB Gareon Conley, Jalen Tabor, Sidney Jones,  Awuzie, S - Peppers; TE - Njoku - depends on who is left and who we draft in Round 1

 

Round 3 - Too many possibilities to list here because it depends on what we pick in rounds 1 and 2. 

 

So, basically, rather than drafting top-tier talent, you want to draft more but more mediocre talent.



#26 IgotBILLStopay

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 06:03 PM

 

So, basically, rather than drafting top-tier talent, you want to draft more but more mediocre talent.

 

Ha! That is criticism that is the exact opposite of the earlier criticism of drafting BPA, now  isnt it? In basketball, with only 5 guys on the court for most of the time - trading down rarely helps - but in footballl many more guys contribute on the field. Also this is a flat draft without a consensus top 10 - so many of us feel the difference between #10 and #25 is not as much as an extra 2nd and 3rd - especially since Bills have so many holes to fill.

 

That said, if you feel, for example, that Mahomes is a must have and we need him at 10 - I can understand your criticism - since in your mind anybody we draft at 25 is mediocre relative to what you want at 10. In fact, I am hoping there are GMs from other teams who think like you - since that is the only way we will be able to trade down. I just dont feel there is a must have player at 10 for the Bills.



#27 IgotBILLStopay

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 10:39 AM

My reaction to the draft was a little mixed -

 

I am happy the Bills traded down. I am happy we got a first rounder next year. I am happy we drafted a day 1 starter in a position of need. I am happy we got value by trading down since White + 3rd + 2018 first > Hooker or Lattimore but ....

 

a. Hearing the Chiefs Coach and GM rave about Mahomes - feel we could have gotten more - at least 2nd this year given KC's picks are late round picks

b. White is a decent selection but Foster was there for the taking - This guy was definite top 20 talent

c. Seahawks did two trades at the end of the round - why couldnt the Bills do those trades? Especially the one with the Hawks. Seahawks werent taking McKinley, neither were we - so the real threat for the Hawks was Dallas at 28. I would have been so happy with swapping 27 for 31 and 95 and we coulda still had White. Dougie dropped the ball here a bit.

 

That said the main goal was to drop down and acquire value and we did that. Some guys called it the best trade of the night:

 

http://www.footballp...the-2017-draft/

 

"Bills trade: 10th overall

Chiefs trade: 27th overall, 91st overall, 2018 1st

The Chiefs moved up 17 spots to draft Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs could use a quarterback of the future, of course — after all, it’s now been 30 years since Kansas City won a game with a quarterback drafted by the team. But if you value that 2018 1st round as equal to say, the 24th overall selection, that means the Bills received a whopping 170 cents on the dollar on the FP draft value chart. Even on the traditional chart, it’s still a great trade: Buffalo gets 120 cents on the dollar. And the Chiefs 2018 1st round pick could obviously be better than 24, too.

This was a great trade for the Bills, who were on the opposite end of this sort of move 13 years ago. In 2004, Buffalo traded 43, 144, and a 2005 1st to move up from 43 to 22 to draft J.P. Losman. Now, the Bills move down 17 spots and grab a future first and a third. As for Kansas City? The only way this works, of course, is if Mahomes becomes a star. The Chiefs are using two firsts and a third on him, which means he needs to be more than just average."

About the pick:

White was nicknamed "SteadyEddie" by some writers. Does most things reasonably well - quick feet and quick reaction being the best traits (you cant teach those). He is a team leader and was probably the most professional guy on the LSU team. However, having watched him live several times, he does have a couple of weaknesses - That Texas Tech wideout (who was drafted by Miami last year - forget his name) schooled him in the bowl game since he was a tad slow. He also does not jump very well and is a little small making him a technique driven CB (excellent technique, btw). He will basically easily cover a guy like Hogan, but would have trouble against bigger guys, faster guys and better jumpers (and there are are wideouts who good on these traits). 

That said, over the last season he has taken to studying a lot more film and his play on the field was solid without being splashy (except for that return for a TD). He also adds value in the return game - so overall I guess - just wait and see how this turns out. After sleeping over it, I have started warming up to him (guess we all do that once the Bills select players) and there are others who grade him as great.

https://www.profootb...s-from-round-1/

"Desperately needing a cornerback, the Bills banked on the depth of the class by bypassing the chance at the draft’s best in Lattimore at pick No. 10 and trading back 17 spots with the Chiefs. The strategy worked to perfection, as they were able to accumulate an extra third-round pick for tomorrow and Kansas City’s 2018 first-round pick, and still lock in one of our favorite corners in the class. After giving up six touchdowns and a QB rating-against of 114.4 in 2015, White was outstanding in 2016. He cut his touchdowns-against total in half, and tallied 14 pass breakups while lowering his QB rating-against to 61.0. He is capable of playing outside or in the slot, and should be a solid replacement for Stephon Gilmore, who signed with the Patriots in free agency."

 

Onward to rounds 2 and 3!


Edited by IgotBILLStopay, 28 April 2017 - 10:41 AM.