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No sure fire Franchise QB's in 18' draft class


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#21 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:35 PM

Every draft has different strengths and weaknesses. I'm not sure why people try to debate that? This year was strong with DBs and weak at OL. QBs work the same way. Next year's class looks so strong to the majority of evaluators because of the depth. Some will rise and some will fall but we are talking a candidate pool of like 12 guys instead of 5. Obviously things can change but at this point last year we weren't talking about 12 guys potentially battling to be 1st rounders. It was Watson, Kaaya, Leidner and a few others. The names may change but there are just so many more in the pool next year (like DBs in 2017).

Next year looks to be a good RB draft to me too. There's 3-4 guy that will probably go in round 1.


Haven't the majority of evaluators shown they are awful at evaluating qbs? Why does anyone really put much stock in qb evaluations?

No position in sports is more wrongly scouted than qb.

#22 mikemac2001

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:41 PM

I'd still like 2 1st round picks in 18 to take a chance on a couple of them being worth it

#23 Augie

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:42 PM

Haven't the majority of evaluators shown they are awful at evaluating qbs? Why does anyone really put much stock in qb evaluations?
No position in sports is more wrongly scouted than qb.

But there are drafts stronger at some positions than others. Just by shear numbers QB looks better than some previous years. Now, can we pick the right guy? THAT is the question!

Edited by Augie, 16 May 2017 - 05:42 PM.


#24 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:42 PM

I'd still like 2 1st round picks in 18 to take a chance on a couple of them being worth it


There's also the chance even in a good class, we end up getting t Losman'd.

Edited by C.Biscuit97, 16 May 2017 - 05:42 PM.


#25 Augie

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:44 PM

There's also the chance even in a good class, we end up getting t Losman'd.


That is always a chance, but you have to swing the bat some time. I'd rather do it when the count looks good.

#26 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:49 PM

But there are drafts stronger iat some positions than others. Just by shear numbers QB looks better than some previous years. Now, can we pick the right guy? THAT is the question!


I feel like this gets said a lot and scouts seem to be better at evaluating other positions. But they are so wrong about qbs all the time. Matt Leinart was an elite #1 overall prospect his junior year. Jevan Snead was a hot prospect. Mike Mayock had Blaine Gabbert over Cam Newton. Jake Locker and Matt Barkley were elite prospects. Alex Smith was picked 20 spots before Rodgers, who was a nothing prospect heading into his last year in college.

I don't pretend to know who will be good NFL qbs. But it's laughable to hear "experts" pretend like they do. Personally, I put a lot of stock in game film and it's why I really hope Watson doesn't become a franchise qb.

And FTR, I like Rosen and Rudolph from this class.

That is always a chance, but you have to swing the bat some time. I'd rather do it when the count looks good.


Trust me, I love when they draft qbs. I'm 100% fine with the EJ pick because it was a chance. Same with Jones and Peterman.

That said, you can't just be satisfied taking a chance every once in awhile. My nightmare scenario is we don't have enough ammunition to move up in the draft and settle for the 3 or 4 best qb.

#27 Wayne Cubed

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:49 PM

Haven't the majority of evaluators shown they are awful at evaluating qbs? Why does anyone really put much stock in qb evaluations?

No position in sports is more wrongly scouted than qb.


Except that's not what Kirby is saying.

He is saying that scouts and evaluators are looking at next years class and see more QBs that could possibly become NFL starters. They aren't saying "hell ya there's like 5 franchise QBs in the next draft", because no one knows that. It's about potential and projection. There are more guys that exhibit the traits that scouts and evaluators look for when determining if they think a guy can become a good QB. In this years class there were less of them.

More guys, means more chances.

Just like this year with DBs, there were more DBs in this class so there was a higher chance you'd get a good player.

#28 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:51 PM

Except that's not what Kirby is saying.

He is saying that scouts and evaluators are looking at next years class and see more QBs that could possibly become NFL starters. They aren't saying "hell ya there's like 5 franchise QBs in the next draft", because no one knows that. It's about potential and projection. There are more guys that exhibit the traits that scouts and evaluators look for when determining if they think a guy can become a good QB. In this years class there were less of them.

More guys, means more chances.

Just like this year with DBs, there were more DBs in this class so there was a higher chance you'd get a good player.


I get that. But they are normally very wrong in their evaluations. Db and other positions are much easier to scout.

#29 Doc

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:56 PM

P.S. Bucky is a much better analyst than he was a football player. He's really good at his job,


Brooks was a second round pick that never even suited up for the Bills in a real game. You basically set the bar at zero.

#30 Wayne Cubed

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:58 PM

I get that. But they are normally very wrong in their evaluations. Db and other positions are much easier to scout.


But you aren't getting it, you keep saying that you think they are saying these guys are going to be great QBs. And that it's hard to scout QBs and that they are terrible at it.

Yes, it's hard to know if a Qb will transition to the NFL, there are a lot of factors. That doesn't mean scouts can't grade QBs or shouldn't grade them on their potential.

That's all this is at this point.

Scouts and evaluators have looked at this next years class and at this point they see MORE college QBs that could come out next year, that have the potential.

More chances = a better QB class.

#31 The Wiz

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 05:59 PM

I feel like this gets said a lot and scouts seem to be better at evaluating other positions. But they are so wrong about qbs all the time. Matt Leinart was an elite #1 overall prospect his junior year. Jevan Snead was a hot prospect. Mike Mayock had Blaine Gabbert over Cam Newton. Jake Locker and Matt Barkley were elite prospects. Alex Smith was picked 20 spots before Rodgers, who was a nothing prospect heading into his last year in college.

I don't pretend to know who will be good NFL qbs. But it's laughable to hear "experts" pretend like they do. Personally, I put a lot of stock in game film and it's why I really hope Watson doesn't become a franchise qb.

And FTR, I like Rosen and Rudolph from this class.

Trust me, I love when they draft qbs. I'm 100% fine with the EJ pick because it was a chance. Same with Jones and Peterman.

That said, you can't just be satisfied taking a chance every once in awhile. My nightmare scenario is we don't have enough ammunition to move up in the draft and settle for the 3 or 4 best qb.

Nice post biscuit. It really does come down to dumb luck in most cases for a franchise qb. Does he fit the system, will he fit the system if there is a choosing change, what happens if his favorite target leaves, etc.

All you can hope for is a guy that can win you games more than he loses them at the end of the day.

Edited by The Wiz, 16 May 2017 - 06:00 PM.


#32 BarleyNY

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:01 PM

But you aren't getting it, you keep saying that you think they are saying these guys are going to be great QBs. And that it's hard to scout QBs and that they are terrible at it.
Yes, it's hard to know if a Qb will transition to the NFL, there are a lot of factors. That doesn't mean scouts can't grade QBs or shouldn't grade them on their potential.
That's all this is at this point.
Scouts and evaluators have looked at this next years class and at this point they see MORE college QBs that could come out next year, that have the potential.
More chances = a better QB class.


Exactly. Lots of people don't understand odds and bet size.

#33 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:01 PM

Haven't the majority of evaluators shown they are awful at evaluating qbs? Why does anyone really put much stock in qb evaluations?

No position in sports is more wrongly scouted than qb.

I don't disagree that it's hard to scout. Who knows, 5 years from now maybe Davis Webb is the best QB from 2017-2018. At the same time the hit ratio on top 3 QBs is about 50%. If we are going to say between 2017 & 2018 that there are potentially 15 candidates to go in round 1 and 5 are from 2017 & 10 are from 2018 I'd rather be taking one in 2018. Maybe 3 of those 15 end up as legit franchise guys? You are trying to give yourself the best possible scenario to be right. You may have to move up and obviously will have to scout well. Your goal though is to increase the odds that you are getting a franchise guy.

That's a HUGE reason that the EJ pick was criticized so heavily. They made a nice move to trade down but you took a guy, who in most evalutaor's eyes, was unlikely to be a franchise guy. It wasn't great value. The upside was there and if he went in the 3rd people probably would have loved it. You need to match the value with the likelihood. 2 1st round picks in a deep QB draft should allow the Bills to be aggressive in getting a guy that has low bust potential (like Jameis & Mariota). A prospect with a nice resume and minimal question marks.

Edited by Kirby Jackson, 16 May 2017 - 06:02 PM.


#34 horned dogs

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:04 PM

Have to wait an see if there are any who really pan out!  Somebody mentioned there are 12 instead of 5 candidates next year. Jeez all 12 could get hurt or suck. Or one could come out of the woodwork that no one is thinking about. We just don't know right now and I think planning on a great Qb class is foolish beyond what we did this year- having ammo to move up if needed. Brad Kaaya was ranked number 1 last year this time. Where is he now? I'm not an advocate for just drafting a QB, any QB at all times. You should pick one when you think they are the one you can believe in.


Edited by horned dogs, 16 May 2017 - 06:06 PM.


#35 OldTimeAFLGuy

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:04 PM

...look at the last decade or so and how many "sure fires" were there in the 1st round?.....Rodgers (2005), Smith (2005), Luck and perhaps Flacco (meh) come to mind as "sure fires".....majority of the other 1st rounders wouldn't even have been UDFA's in the glory years.......collegiate ranks are no longer the NFL's grooming "developmental league"......filling seats, lucrative bowl invites and satisfying boosters are the top priorities.....isn't the NFL the ONLY major sport without a developmental league?....prolly can't afford it.....right.........


Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy, 16 May 2017 - 06:05 PM.


#36 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:05 PM

Except that's not what Kirby is saying.

He is saying that scouts and evaluators are looking at next years class and see more QBs that could possibly become NFL starters. They aren't saying "hell ya there's like 5 franchise QBs in the next draft", because no one knows that. It's about potential and projection. There are more guys that exhibit the traits that scouts and evaluators look for when determining if they think a guy can become a good QB. In this years class there were less of them.

More guys, means more chances.

Just like this year with DBs, there were more DBs in this class so there was a higher chance you'd get a good player.

Thanks Wayne, you always do such a nice job of clarifying my ramblings.

#37 Augie

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:09 PM

I fully agree that no one I know of is good at picking QB's NO ONE! It's a crap shoot, but still there are odds to play. I tried to be hopeful when EJ was drafted, but I had watched a LOT of FSU football, and I had all the confidence I had when Rex was hired. :(

#38 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:09 PM

Have to wait an see if there are any who really pan out!  Somebody mentioned there are 12 instead of 5 candidates next year. Jeez all 12 could get hurt or suck. We just don't know right now and I think planning on a great Qb class is foolish beyond what we did this year- having ammo to move up if needed. Brad Kaaya was ranked number 1 last year this time. Where is he now? I'm not an advocate for just drafting a QB, any QB at all times. You should pick one when you think they are the one you can believe in.

Again though, is it more likely that the 12 candidates all flame out before 2018 or the 5 candidates before 2017? It's all about the odds. Nobody ever knows what the future will hold. You are trying to put your self in the best possible situation to be right.

I'll give a non-football example that may make some sense. If I told you that I had hidden $100,000,000M behind a door and there are 100 doors sitting there would you rather have 5 guesses or 12? You may find it with 1 of the 5 but at this point you are better of with 12. I hope that makes sense and isn't more rambling.

#39 fansince88

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:10 PM

We have Petterman. Dont need one

#40 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:10 PM

...look at the last decade or so and how many "sure fires" were there in the 1st round?.....Rodgers (2005), Smith (2005), Luck and perhaps Flacco (meh) come to mind as "sure fires".....majority of the other 1st rounders wouldn't even have been UDFA's in the glory years.......collegiate ranks are no longer the NFL's grooming "developmental league"......filling seats, lucrative bowl invites and satisfying boosters are the top priorities.....isn't the NFL the ONLY major sport without a developmental league?....prolly can't afford it.....right.........

Matt Ryan, Mariota, Jameis & Cam I would add.

Edited by Kirby Jackson, 16 May 2017 - 06:11 PM.