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No sure fire Franchise QB's in 18' draft class


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#41 OldTimeAFLGuy

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:12 PM

Matt Ryan, Jameis & Mariota I would add.

...thanks Kirby....Ryan definitely......Jameis and Mariota are on the right path IMO and could easily be there shortly....sorry for the omissions..............



#42 Augie

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:13 PM

Kirby, which door? I won't tell anyone. I promise!

#43 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:14 PM

...thanks Kirby....Ryan definitely......Jameis and Mariota are on the right path IMO and could easily be there shortly....sorry for the omissions..............

No problem, they are too early to tell but we're thought of as pretty safe bets. Cam too as he was the 1st pick in a LOADED draft class (maybe the best I've ever seen).

Kirby, which door? I won't tell anyone. I promise!

I meant $1.

#44 Augie

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:15 PM

Can't even get Taco Bell with a dollar.... :(

#45 Mark Vader

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:17 PM

There weren't any "sure fire" QBs this year, but three teams moved up into the top 12, all expending big currency, to draft their guys. Pokes a pretty big hole in the "weak QB class" argument we heard all offseason, don't you think?

 

Every year someone hypes up next's years class, and it always seems to fall short. 

How in the world did someone from WYOMING become a #1 overall candidate? Geezus. 

Give me a break. You've seen teams reach for QB's in the first round in recent years, because they desperately needed a QB, not because they were the best player available.

 

E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert. All first round picks.

 

Do you really think that Mitchell Trubisky was the 2nd overall best player to be drafted this year?

 

As for your other comment, are you saying that QB's that come from a mid-major or smaller school is not worth being a first round pick, or a # 1 overall candidate? If true, that is a ridiculous assertion on your part.



#46 Formerly Allan in MD

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:17 PM

No college quarterback is ever a sure thing and year after year unexpected names emerge, as Trubisky did.



#47 horned dogs

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:19 PM

Again though, is it more likely that the 12 candidates all flame out before 2018 or the 5 candidates before 2017? It's all about the odds. Nobody ever knows what the future will hold. You are trying to put your self in the best possible situation to be right.

I'll give a non-football example that may make some sense. If I told you that I had hidden $100,000,000M behind a door and there are 100 doors sitting there would you rather have 5 guesses or 12? You may find it with 1 of the 5 but at this point you are better of with 12. I hope that makes sense and isn't more rambling.

No I understand optionality. My point was that it is hard to do more than have the ammo available if needed to move up. Planning on a good QB class is risky at best. We can look at a class now and say it looks great, with many candidates. They could all end up not being first round guys at his time next year. Or, some other QB could come to the front and not be eligible until 2019 that everyone loves. Just too hard to do much more than be ready for anything.

 

 

By the way, Great Topic Kelly! :thumbsup:


Edited by horned dogs, 16 May 2017 - 06:22 PM.


#48 OldTimeAFLGuy

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:22 PM

No problem, they are too early to tell but we're thought of as pretty safe bets. Cam too as he was the 1st pick in a LOADED draft class (maybe the best I've ever seen).
I meant $1.

...Cam is too inconsistent and is not focused.....the guys I mentioned and the guys you added work at their craft......Cam is too tied up in fashion and hyping himself...fine whine.....think that is what caused Casper-Nick and RG II 1/8 to fail...and they got figured out quickly by DC's.......damn well better respect the game because you are not larger than it is.....Kaep got caught up in it with his tats and poses....same with RG....bloated hat sizes sank their respective ships.....honestly did not have much faith in Jameis, but the kid is working at it the way he should ..kudos....


Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy, 16 May 2017 - 06:23 PM.


#49 Mark Vader

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:22 PM

...still like being positioned with two 1sts and the young guns now running the show...............

 

 

I'd still like 2 1st round picks in 18 to take a chance on a couple of them being worth it

Me too



#50 Augie

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:22 PM

Yes, be ready for anything! We are set up fairly well for that. But with no certainties.

#51 BringBackFergy

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:24 PM

...still like being positioned with two 1sts and the young guns now running the show...............

This

#52 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:25 PM

I don't disagree that it's hard to scout. Who knows, 5 years from now maybe Davis Webb is the best QB from 2017-2018. At the same time the hit ratio on top 3 QBs is about 50%. If we are going to say between 2017 & 2018 that there are potentially 15 candidates to go in round 1 and 5 are from 2017 & 10 are from 2018 I'd rather be taking one in 2018. Maybe 3 of those 15 end up as legit franchise guys? You are trying to give yourself the best possible scenario to be right. You may have to move up and obviously will have to scout well. Your goal though is to increase the odds that you are getting a franchise guy.

That's a HUGE reason that the EJ pick was criticized so heavily. They made a nice move to trade down but you took a guy, who in most evalutaor's eyes, was unlikely to be a franchise guy. It wasn't great value. The upside was there and if he went in the 3rd people probably would have loved it. You need to match the value with the likelihood. 2 1st round picks in a deep QB draft should allow the Bills to be aggressive in getting a guy that has low bust potential (like Jameis & Mariota). A prospect with a nice resume and minimal question marks.


Good post. I like your last part of nice resume and minimal question marks, though I think Winston and Mariota had some big ones (Jameis was a fat, alleged rapist who love INTs and Mariota played in a gimmick system from where no qb had NFL success).

#53 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:29 PM

No I understand optionality. My point was that it is hard to do more than have the ammo available if needed to move up. Planning on a good QB class is risky at best. We can look at a class now and say it looks great, with many candidates. They could all end up not being first round guys at his time next year. Or, some other QB could come to the front and not be eligible until 2019 that everyone loves. Just too hard to do much more than be ready for anything.

I don't disagree and that's why you play the odds. Some of these guys we are talking about now will be nowhere a year from now (like Kaaya and Leidner). Some will stay near the top of the draft (like Watson) and some others will emerge. If the numbers hold true to most scouting cycles there will be more high end candidates next year than in most years. It doesn't mean you will get a franchise guy. It means that you have a better chance.

Good post. I like your last part of nice resume and minimal question marks, though I think Winston and Mariota had some big ones (Jameis was a fat, alleged rapist who love INTs and Mariota played in a gimmick system from where no qb had NFL success).

Ha ha that's fair.

#54 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:29 PM

No I understand optionality. My point was that it is hard to do more than have the ammo available if needed to move up. Planning on a good QB class is risky at best. We can look at a class now and say it looks great, with many candidates. They could all end up not being first round guys at his time next year. Or, some other QB could come to the front and not be eligible until 2019 that everyone loves. Just too hard to do much more than be ready for anything.
 
 
By the way, Great Topic Kelly! :thumbsup:

Well said and that's exactly where I'm at.

The way I look at it is this year's draft trade could either be one of the best moves in Bills history or one of the worst. If Mahomes or Watson turn into studs and we can't get one next year, it's a terrible move. But if the opposite happens, it could be an all time great move.

I think I like Watson and Mahomes better than a bunch of people here. I also thought it was the perfect time to draft a qb to let them develop without pressure for a year.

The evaluation of the 2018 group of qbs will be much different at draft time next year.

P.S. I forgot to included potential first round qb turned Bills practice squad TE Logan Thomas on the list! Sorry Logan!

Edited by C.Biscuit97, 16 May 2017 - 06:30 PM.


#55 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:30 PM

...Cam is too inconsistent and is not focused.....the guys I mentioned and the guys you added work at their craft......Cam is too tied up in fashion and hyping himself...fine whine.....think that is what caused Casper-Nick and RG II 1/8 to fail...and they got figured out quickly by DC's.......damn well better respect the game because you are not larger than it is.....Kaep got caught up in it with his tats and poses....same with RG....bloated hat sizes sank their respective ships.....honestly did not have much faith in Jameis, but the kid is working at it the way he should ..kudos....

He still won the MVP and has been a pretty dominant player. He isn't perfect but would certainly classify as a guy that was highly touted coming out that has succeeded.

#56 BillsFan17

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:30 PM

Matt Ryan, Mariota, Jameis & Cam I would add.

Matt Ryan was absolutely not a sure thing.

#57 Maury Ballstein

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:31 PM

Well said and that's exactly where I'm at.
The way I look at it is this year's draft trade could either be one of the best moves in Bills history or one of the worst. If Mahomes or Watson turn into studs and we can't get one next year, it's a terrible move. But if the opposite happens, it could be an all time great move.
I think I like Watson and Mahomes better than a bunch of people here. I also thought it was the perfect time to draft a qb to let them develop without pressure for a year.
The evaluation of the 2018 group of qbs will be much different at draft time next year.


Watson wins playoff games year one. Texans are gonna be sweet without Osweiler in the way.

#58 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:34 PM

Well said and that's exactly where I'm at.

The way I look at it is this year's draft trade could either be one of the best moves in Bills history or one of the worst. If Mahomes or Watson turn into studs and we can't get one next year, it's a terrible move. But if the opposite happens, it could be an all time great move.

I think I like Watson and Mahomes better than a bunch of people here. I also thought it was the perfect time to draft a qb to let them develop without pressure for a year.

The evaluation of the 2018 group of qbs will be much different at draft time next year.

P.S. I forgot to included potential first round qb turned Bills practice squad TE Logan Thomas on the list! Sorry Logan!

I think that is true too. If the Bills are getting a guy early in 2018 he is playing immediately. There will be elevated expectations compared to this year.

Matt Ryan was absolutely not a sure thing.

He was the 3rd pick in the draft, from a pro-style offense that had BC ranked in the top 2 in the country at one point. He was a pretty safe bet.

Watson wins playoff games year one. Texans are gonna be sweet without Osweiler in the way.

I think so too. Osweiler was so unbelievably bad. That team is good everywhere and he held them back. Watson is a winner too. They have a real shot to play in the AFC Championship and then who knows.

#59 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:34 PM

Matt Ryan was absolutely not a sure thing.


Agreed. He was an under 60% passer who threw a lot of INTs. I don't even think people killed the Fins as much as they should have for taking an OT instead of him. Thank God they were dumb!

#60 OldTimeAFLGuy

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Posted 16 May 2017 - 06:36 PM

I don't disagree that it's hard to scout. Who knows, 5 years from now maybe Davis Webb is the best QB from 2017-2018. At the same time the hit ratio on top 3 QBs is about 50%. If we are going to say between 2017 & 2018 that there are potentially 15 candidates to go in round 1 and 5 are from 2017 & 10 are from 2018 I'd rather be taking one in 2018. Maybe 3 of those 15 end up as legit franchise guys? You are trying to give yourself the best possible scenario to be right. You may have to move up and obviously will have to scout well. Your goal though is to increase the odds that you are getting a franchise guy.

That's a HUGE reason that the EJ pick was criticized so heavily. They made a nice move to trade down but you took a guy, who in most evalutaor's eyes, was unlikely to be a franchise guy. It wasn't great value. The upside was there and if he went in the 3rd people probably would have loved it. You need to match the value with the likelihood. 2 1st round picks in a deep QB draft should allow the Bills to be aggressive in getting a guy that has low bust potential (like Jameis & Mariota). A prospect with a nice resume and minimal question marks.

...here's the caveat Kirby.....OBD was hell bent on taking a QB in the 1st for 2013 (who the ultimate "picker" was now at this late date doesn't mean squat)...ironically Genome Smith was their #1 choice.....the gang flew down to work him out and interview him....consensus on the plane ride home was, "uh no thanks".....hence EJ was "second fiddle".......hindsight is a beautiful thing, but "both fiddles were missing several strings"......


Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy, 16 May 2017 - 06:36 PM.