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Flap's Super Early Bills Mock


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#1 uncle flap

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 01:15 PM

I'm just going to copy my text form an email I wrote to my buddies earlier today. It's kind of a stream of consciousness read, and I didn't really proofread it. I was just really frustrated with EJ yesterday and couldn't help but look ahead to the draft.

I'm also far from a CFB expert so I'd appreciate everyone's input. I won't quote it so you can quote parts if you like. Here's the text:

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I haven't given up on EJ per se, but I haven't seen enough for me to outright dismiss drafting one of the top rated QBs coming out of this draft.

Off the top of my head they have only a few "needs" in the draft:

I'd take a beast WR- big speed guy who can win jump balls. Mike Evans not super fast but a 6'5" beast. There's maybe 5 guys I'd target but doesn't seem to be a Julio or AJ clone out there this year.

I'd take another corner. The gators have two real good guys and there are a lot of p good corners coming out. Again about 5 I'd consider in the first two rounds, and maybe a dozen that are worth a pick in the first four rounds.

I'd definitely look at an interior lineman, altho I don't know enough about the prospects to really make a guess as to who or where they should draft one. Glancing at projections it seems there's about 5 Gs with a top 3 round grade. I'm sensing a trend here.

I'd take a TE, but with what's out there it looks like a big drop off after the first round. However, there's a guy that got kicked off of the ducks for snorting yayo and would be worth a flier. He prob would be in conversation for first TE drafted if not for the drug arrest.

Lastly, I'd like to see another LB picked up. Khalil Mack is the obvious choice, but there seems to be a lot of good talent out there, so I'm thinking maybe they should wait til the second or third day to pick one up.

So, all that considered, unless they can get Mike Evans, I'd pass on a WR in the first. Should be a solid CB available in the second or third, so can pass on CB for the first. First round also too high for a guard IMO, so they can wait on that too.

IMO that leaves only a few options for the Bills first round pick. Evans likely gone by the time they're up, so do they take the top or one of the top TEs? Do they take Mack or CJ Mosely? Or wait and get a more traditional ILB like Skov out of Stanford in the second or third?

I submit Whaley and co. should take a looooooooong look at the glut of QBs that should be there in the first. I don't really have a favorite. I like Bridgewater a lot but he's probably going to the Jags. Don't know that Mariota will translate to the NFL, but I won't outright dismiss him. Manziel has his well documented issues, but talent trumps all. Boyd, McCarron, Murray are all viable options as are the kid from LSU, and Hundley from UCLA.

Since QB is the most important position, and the BIlls don't exactly have any glaring holes that must be addressed in the first round, they should probably grab a QB.

My super duper early mock:

1. QB- I won't put a name here bc it depends how important mobility and the read option are to the Bills. Mettenberger form LSU is safest pick, but isn't mobile at all. Otherwise it's basically a toss up between Mariota (hasn't been asked to win games with his arm), Manziel (immature boozehound), and Hundley (upside upside upside- similar to EJ, has all the tools but isn't the most polished passer).

2. Zach Martin ND- LG. He's actually an LT, but projects to G in the NFL. Should be available at our second round pick.

3. Shane Skov Stanford ILB. He may not be there by round three but if he is I think hell make a perfect compliment to Kiko. If not, I'd go for a corner or TE - Colt Lyerla is the druggie from Oregon I mentioned above. Roberson and Purifoy are the top two CBs at Florida, but they've got another in Jaylen Watkins who could be available too.

4. Deon Belue Bama CB - Assuming they picked up Skov in round three, I want them to take a flier on a guy who was a five three (edit) star recruit and is the #1 corner for an elite defense.

5. L'Damian Washington Mizzou WR- 6'4" sub 4.4 40 WR. Already has 9 TDs this year. His stock will probably rise at the combine since he's been timed as fast as 4.30 in the 40 yard dash. But if he's there, I'll take him

6. Asa Watson NCState TE- Ben Watson's little brother. Stand up guy and academic all american.

7. Avery Patterson Ducks FS- Really talented but on the smallish side for a FS which reflects his draft position.

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So TBDers, I ask 3.5 (lol) questions:

1. Whether or not you think the Bills should draft a QB in the first, who would you prefer they take if they do?

2. If you don't think they are taking a QB, or shouldn't take a QB, who do you think they should take?

3a. Would you take the draft I laid out here?
3b. Am I just way off with with where I've pegged guys going?

Edited by uncle flap, 14 December 2013 - 03:44 PM.


#2 Astrobot

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:20 PM

Very good draft. :thumbsup:

http://www.drafttek....ngs/Top-QBs.asp
1. IF the Bills took a QB in the first round (5% chance IMHO), I'd like them to take a mobile guy, but one who is more effective in the pocket rather than running out of it (in other words, not Tajh Boyd). I'd like a QB that's a leader off the field as well as on it (in other words, not "Man-Zeal"). I'm not a Bridgewater fan (beats up on bad teams week in and week out. Kentucky may have the best defense that he has played against and against them he completed under 60% of his passes, for 250 yards, and 1 TD. Last year, he threw at least one INT in over half of his games. ).

That leaves Hundley, Mariota, Mettenberger, and Carr in rounds 1-2 (I like all of them and would jump up and down for Mariota), then Hogan, McCarron, Murray in the mid-rounds (a 30% possibility), and some late-round value in Jeff Mathews (Cornell), James Franklin (Mizzou), Devin Gardner (Michigan), and Jimmy Garoppolo (Eastern Illinois), likely RD6-7-UDFA (65% probability).

2. They should take TE (Seferian Jenkins), WR (Mike Evans at 6'5" 225), or OG (David Yankey). I wouldn't be upset if it was a NT (Nix, Carrethers, DaQuan Jones) or lockdown CB (although I think he'll be a veteran).

3a. I would definitely take your draft. Maybe late round, I'd take Carlos Hyde as a downfield RB/FB instead.

3b. We're about to do another Big Board here, but yours is pretty close.

"Buffalo Bills--The Draft Is All We Got" :w00t:

Edited by Astrobot, 13 November 2013 - 08:53 PM.


#3 jjmac

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:54 AM

This would an interesting draft, to say the least, but I think the coaching staff is committed to EJ, and we won't draft a QB at tall this year.

#4 uncle flap

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 04:00 PM

This would an interesting draft, to say the least, but I think the coaching staff is committed to EJ, and we won't draft a QB at tall this year.


I don't think they will draft a QB early either. My mock is a reflection of what I want them to do. That said, I'm not exactly advocating that they take a QB, only that they stay true to their board.

So, if there is a QB that they like, I'd rather they spend a pick on a QB than another position than reaching to fill a perceived need, especially if it because of loyalty to an as yet unproven commodity in EJ. Looking at a handful of big boards led me to the conclusion that there is likely going to be a QB available in round 1 or 2 that could be an upgrade over EJ, or at least an upgrade over the backups. Every other position that they "need" doesn't have a slam dunk prospect in round 1 that would make me want to forego a decent chance at a franchise QB. If EJ is a bust or even just mediocre - and by no means am I saying he is- it won't matter much that they have a blue chip TE, WR, OG, LB or whatever other player at a position deemed to lacking.