I agree that those picks are a longshot but I think the Bills have 23 UFAs. In the salary cap era you need those picks to fill out depth, ST and the back of your roster. You hope that you hit on some guys like it looks like with Seymour. You probably need all of your draft picks and a couple of undraftted rookies on your roster. I just don't see how you can use 3 picks on QB unless it is someone like Luck. There are just too many spots to fill.
I understand your view, but i guess mine is that the difference between the 5-7 picks and undrafted rookies as far as the odds of being a longshot, are minimal at best. Most of those UFAs are just depth, filler. And the other fact is that many of those better players in those rounds would have been selected earlier, if it wasn't for red flags like off field issues. Like Karlos Williams, talented, great potential, great skills, but questions about off field issues. Most end up like him, but a very small percentage do rise above them. I guess those are the are the ones you hope for in the later rounds and why you value those picks so highly.
Players playing at or below the level of vet minimum. They will not make or break your team. Like a majority of the Bills free agents this year, they are not impact. I have never seen a study comparing the odds of getting outstanding talent in the upper rounds of the draft and as a UDFA, I would like to see one. Isn't that really what the theory behind moneyball is? I have seen such studies of higher rounds, but never later rounds.
Now this year is the exception for the Bills, since DW was exceptional at dumpster diving last year. Not sure if it was knowledge and skill, just the law of averages, the sheer volumes of dives, or just damn good luck. Groy, Brown, Lorax were all exceptions to a normal year. But there will be plenty of dumpster dives available this year and Undrafted Free Agents to fill out the depth and the back of the roster without worrying about needing those draft picks to do that. As have said repeatedly on this board over the past year, DW's greatest strength has been his ability to be very good at dumpster diving. I wish he was as good at picking out exceptional talent as he was as finding outstanding value at average or mediocre talent levels. We would be in the playoffs and he would be GM of the year every year.
Edited by simpleman, 17 February 2017 - 09:41 AM.