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Where are we at on 2018 Comp picks ?


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#21 N.Y. Orangeman

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 09:09 PM

...yeah...more picks suck.  Picks are worthless...smh at the ignorance.  Carry on...



#22 Paul Costa

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Posted 20 April 2017 - 10:26 PM

LOL 😂

#23 wilcoam

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:58 AM

The irony is the same folks who don't care about free extra draft picks

Got on ad naseum on what a great pick Seymour was last year and how he might start opposite Darby this year

 

We are not going to get any

We signed 7 FA and only lost 5  

 

Our new HC seemed to convince our middling GM that signing 7 players rated 250th or worse in the league 

Was more important than receiving 2018 draft picks for the 2 top 150 players we lost

 

jc



#24 What a Tuel

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:01 AM

...yeah...more picks suck.  Picks are worthless...smh at the ignorance.  Carry on...

 

More comp picks means less free agent signings/resignings. But who cares those guys are crappy! We want the prime 3rd, 4th, 5th round studs!


Edited by What a Tuel, 21 April 2017 - 02:01 AM.


#25 YoloinOhio

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Posted 04 May 2017 - 05:07 PM

Well well well

@ryantalbotbills
Former #Bills tight end Chris Gragg has a work out scheduled with the #Colts on Monday (5/8). Would be a solid addition to Indy's roster.

#26 mead107

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Posted 05 May 2017 - 05:57 PM

1?8

#27 jeffismagic

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Posted 05 May 2017 - 06:33 PM

We don't need comp picks. We have a process that starts with one and then we earn the right to win.



#28 NewEraBills

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Posted 05 May 2017 - 06:39 PM

So much obsession over comp picks. Some here seem to think that 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks hold a great deal of value. This article discusses the probability of success in the draft by round. By the end of the 3rd, probability of finding a guy that starts even 1 year in his career is pretty low - only about 30%.

https://datascopeana...-the-nfl-draft/

 

Yes but the fact that you can package them and move up the board is of great value now though.



#29 BuffAlone

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 09:39 AM

OverTheCap.com says we wont be getting any comp picks in 2018. Guess that puts an end to this thread...

#30 Pbomb

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 10:01 AM

OverTheCap.com says we wont be getting any comp picks in 2018. Guess that puts an end to this thread...

whaley needs to be fired on the spot for this travesty

#31 Thurman#1

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 10:19 AM

So much obsession over comp picks. Some here seem to think that 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks hold a great deal of value. This article discusses the probability of success in the draft by round. By the end of the 3rd, probability of finding a guy that starts even 1 year in his career is pretty low - only about 30%.

https://datascopeana...-the-nfl-draft/

 

 

 

Of course there is obsession with comp picks. They're picks. In the NFL draft.

 

Did you not see the obsession with the draft and the picks in it recently? 

 

And yeah, the odds are lower later on. Which is pretty much entirely beside the point, which is that some picks from later on make an impact, some even a great impact whereas not having any picks is exactly like the Gretzky quote about not making any of the shots you don't take.

 

You're infinitely more likely to get something from comp picks than if you have no comp picks, which would give you no chance.

 

And as for the original question, after so many people blabbing on and on about how we were going to get tons of picks because of all the FAs we were losing ... nope. No comp picks is what it looks like.

 

Now, which team is more likely to get something from their comp picks in 2018, the Pats who according to overthecap.com have will probably have something like one in the 4th and one in the 5th? The Dolphins who will probably have something like one in the 6th and three in the 7th? Or the Bills and Jets who will likely have a sum total of zero?

 

Exactly.


Edited by Thurman#1, 07 May 2017 - 10:33 AM.


#32 YoloinOhio

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 10:31 AM

OverTheCap.com says we wont be getting any comp picks in 2018. Guess that puts an end to this thread...

that is a projection given the current +/- and what they know of the formula. We have FAs that can still sign before the deadline (like Gragg as I mentioned) and there are other factors that go into it like playing time and postseason awards. It's not decided until January.

#33 Thurman#1

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 10:45 AM

that is a projection given the current +/- and what they know of the formula. We have FAs that can still sign before the deadline (like Gragg as I mentioned) and there are other factors that go into it like playing time and postseason awards. It's not decided until January.

 

 

 

The deadline's May 9th. Teams aren't running to sign guys before that deadline. 

 

And at this point what they know of the formula allows them to predict comp picks with roughly 80 - 85% accuracy and that they can often tell which predictions are more or less firm. No, it's not 100%, but the basic rules are well-known since AdamJT13 (I used to read him back in the day and it was insane how accurate he was).

 

No, you can't predict perfectly this early because one of the requirements seems to be that the signed CFAs have to stay on the new team's roster through at least week 10. But that happens most times.

 

You mentioned Blanton getting signed. Last year he earned, what? $10K more than vet minimum? CFAs only count towards comp picks if the average per year of their deal is in the top half of all players on NFL rosters. I suppose it's possible Blanton will get there, but pretty unlikely. I'd doubt Gragg makes that threshhold either.

 

 

 

 

Are comp picks a huge deal? No, but good teams go for small advantages. And if exploited consistently, small advantages over time make a larger and larger difference. It's mostly the best teams in the league that go after these comp picks, though the Niners appear to have hopped the bandwagon as well. All you have to do is think about it when you're making personnel decisions.


Edited by Thurman#1, 07 May 2017 - 11:12 AM.


#34 YoloinOhio

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 11:08 AM

 
 
 
The deadline's May 9th. Teams aren't running to sign guys before that deadline. 
 
And at this point what they know of the formula allows them to predict comp picks with roughly 80 - 85% accuracy and that they can often tell which predictions are more or less firm. No, it's not 100%, but the basic rules are well-known since AdamJT13 (I used to read him back in the day and it was insane how accurate he was).
 
No, you can't predict perfectly this early because one of the requirements seems to be that the signed CFAs have to stay on the new team's roster through at least week 10. But that happens most times.
 
You mentioned Blanton getting signed. Last year he earned, what? $10K more than vet minimum? CFAs only count towards comp picks if the average per year of their deal is in the top half of all players on NFL rosters. I suppose it's possible Blanton will get there, but pretty unlikely. I'd doubt Gragg makes that threshhold either.

I don't know how it will play out, and I really don't care about comp picks (no offense) but I know others do. I was just clarifying for those that thought he had the correct info and it was already decided.

#35 BuffAlone

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 01:17 PM

whaley needs to be fired on the spot for this travesty

He needs fired like yesterday in fact lol

that is a projection given the current +/- and what they know of the formula. We have FAs that can still sign before the deadline (like Gragg as I mentioned) and there are other factors that go into it like playing time and postseason awards. It's not decided until January.

Yeah,but based on projected salaries of the lesser signees,ie Holmes,philly brown ,etc....i dont see the loss. We MAY get one,thats about it. Usually those number cruncher guys are pretty spot on.
Also,released players dont count,correct?

Edited by BuffAlone, 07 May 2017 - 01:18 PM.


#36 cba fan

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 06:00 PM

A lot of nice comments on this thread, however, no one seems to answer my origional question.

 

Would you do what I propose, if NFL allows it, in order to get the 3rd rounder or not?



#37 JoeF

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 07:00 PM

Comp picks should be based on the number of years the team has not been in the post-season.  It should work like this..

 

Consecutive years not in post-season..

 

5 years - 7th rounder

6 years - 6th rounder

7 years - 5th rounder

8 years - 4th rounder

9 years - 3rd rounder

10 years-3rd rounder + 7th rounder

11 years-3rd rounder + 6th rounder

12 years-3rd rounder + 5th rounder

13 years - 3rd rounder + 4th rounder

14 years - 3rd rounder + 3rd rounder

15 years - 3rd rounder + 3rd rounder+7th rounder

16 years - 3rd rounder + 3rd rounder+6th rounder

17 years -3rd rounder + 3rd rounder+5th rounder

18 years - franchise suspends operation as it reaches legal voting age for absence from the playoffs



#38 Boyst62

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 07:38 PM

Comp picks should be based on the number of years the team has not been in the post-season.  It should work like this..

 

Consecutive years not in post-season..

 

5 years - 7th rounder

6 years - 6th rounder

7 years - 5th rounder

8 years - 4th rounder

9 years - 3rd rounder

10 years-3rd rounder + 7th rounder

11 years-3rd rounder + 6th rounder

12 years-3rd rounder + 5th rounder

13 years - 3rd rounder + 4th rounder

14 years - 3rd rounder + 3rd rounder

15 years - 3rd rounder + 3rd rounder+7th rounder

16 years - 3rd rounder + 3rd rounder+6th rounder

17 years -3rd rounder + 3rd rounder+5th rounder

18 years - franchise suspends operation as it reaches legal voting age for absence from the playoffs

that would make no sense.

 

it would reward bad teams to stay bad by getting rid of good players.