Long Suffering Bills Fan waiting for dawn to break. Long time lurker. First time poster.
Obviously there are a number of draft threads. Besides echoing some of the others' thoughts, I thought I had something different to share - so creating separate thread. Mods - If this belongs elsewhere - please feel free to move. I have tried to also differentiate between beliefs and preferences - so I try to say what are facts, what are personal opinions based on facts and pure personal preference.
Overall Draft Assessment
Our Draft Strategy begins with an assessment of the players available in the draft.
1. I believe this is a draft with a clear consensus number 1 (Garrett) and then kinda levels off for numbers 2-20. For these picks, everyone has their own preferences. I have never seen so much variation in mock picks starting with pick number 2. It is in these types of drafts that having a well thought out but flexible draft strategy can help.
2. The draft appears to be loaded at CB and, to an extent, WRs.
3. I have always believed that in the first round you go for the Best Player Available (BPA) unless the talent level differences are not huge enough when drafting for need is relevant. Our 5 areas of need are - CB, WR, Safety, LB and OT. We actually are set up nicely since CB and WR are this draft's strengths.
Coming to Draft Strategy, there are three possibilities -
Move Up, Stay Pat, Move Down
In a flat draft like this one, moving up is never a great option unless a player fills a glaring hole on the roster and is a perfect fit. That said, chances are several other teams are thinking the same - so it is possible one can move up a little cheaper than years past (this hurts us if we try to move down as well - more on that later). I cannot imagine any scenario where we move up for a non-QB in a plateau-d draft. So the only possibility for moving up is if we feel there is a cannot miss QB. Personally, the whole point of retaining Tyrod is that we have the option to go for a QB if things dont work out with him. Yes, he is not the best pocket passer - but he brings somethings to the table (evasive ability, running, long ball etc.) that make him intriguing enough to see what he can do this year. Picking a QB with #1 also undermines Tyrod before he gets even one game with this coach. Additionally, next year's draft appears to be loaded in QBs - so moving up does not appear to be a great strategy.
Obviously given the flat draft and the numerous possibilities in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, it is hard to stay pat. However, given others are thinking the same thing - the chances of our getting value by trading down are also less. Standing Pat or Trading Down are also a function of how picks 1-9 play out. The no-brainers at #10, IMHO, are Hooker, Adams & Lattimore. I cant choose between the top three WRs (Wallace, Davis, Ross) and having Zay Jones and JuJu as later round possibilities indicates a lack of value in picking a WR at 10. Also given the investment in Clay, I do not want to waste a #10 on OJ Howard. Similarly - it is not clear to me that between Foster, Cunningham and Redick (and, even Peppers), there is value in going with a LB at #10. In my draft simulations, the only way we get the no-brainers to fall to 10 are if at least two QBs and Fournette go in the top 9. It also becomes more likely we get a no-brainer if a team like the Titans go with a WR at #5. Other draft picks can play out differently - but we need a mini QB run in the top 9 to get what we want at 10. Additionally, a mini QB run also makes it likely a team like the Browns with an acute QB need wants to trade with us for the #10 to get one of the remaining QBs. Strangely enough the other scenario that makes a trade down more valuable (in the sense people are willing to pay more for trading with us) is no QB gets selectd in the top 9. Picking the best QB available at #10 is too attractive for many teams to apss up and we actually get great value by trading down. [so Bills Fans - pray for one of 2 scenarios - big QB run or no QB taken. Just one QB taken in the top 9 is the worst case scenario since it means we dont get the no brainers and people dont want to trade with us].
So if one of the no brainers is available at 10, we demand a heftier price for a trade down (at least an extra second and fourth) and if we dont get that, we draft our no-brainer. Between the no-brainers, IMHO Hooker > Adams > Lattimore.
If none of the no-brainers are available, I feel we should trade down even if the price people are willing to pay less. Here is where I think we can maximize returns by doing multiple trade downs - maybe get two thirds by moving from 10 to 17 or so in twio steps).
Picks if we trade down -
Clearly it is is function of availability - but one of the top 3 WRs, OJ Howard (TE), one of the LBs (Foster, Cunningham, Redick) or Peppers (hybrid) all offer value at 17 and beyond.
[My apologies to the Mahomes fan club - clearly I dont belong in that since I am hoping some other team wants him / Kizer / Watson / Trubisky so desperately that they value our pick enough to give us a 2nd rounder].
Edited by IgotBILLStopay, 21 April 2017 - 09:05 AM.