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Aaron Judge


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#1 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 04:12 PM

Discuss...

#2 DriveFor1Outta5

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 04:16 PM

The guy seems like the real deal. Considering the state of baseball will anyone care? Playing in NY there was a time when the kid would have been a household name already.

#3 Boyst62

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 04:26 PM

just based off of the above statement of being a household name by now and i have no idea who he is qualifies as:

a) and indictment to how much i have checked out of this world and most of the current pop-culture information

2) that he isn't someone i should have heard of by now.



#4 RaoulDuke79

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 04:43 PM

The judges chambers at Yankee stadium is pretty cool.Funny guys.

#5 horned dogs

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 05:01 PM

 http://www.fangraphs...640&position=OF

 

As you can see in the profile above the scouts believed in the power 70 grade. His numbers coming in certainly didn't forecast what he is doing now. He has a .422 Babip which is impossible to maintain. So I would say he looks great, the scouts thought he had the raw power, he is overachieving and still will go through the inevitable adjustment. The opponents and pitchers will come at him a different way at some point and the balls in play will drop in less. Not hard to be impressed so far though.



#6 #BADOL

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 06:22 PM

 http://www.fangraphs...640&position=OF

 

As you can see in the profile above the scouts believed in the power 70 grade. His numbers coming in certainly didn't forecast what he is doing now. He has a .422 Babip which is impossible to maintain. So I would say he looks great, the scouts thought he had the raw power, he is overachieving and still will go through the inevitable adjustment. The opponents and pitchers will come at him a different way at some point and the balls in play will drop in less. Not hard to be impressed so far though.

 

 

Yeah 55-60 HR pace and a .340 batting average isn't likely to be sustainable in a league with so many 95+ mph power arms coming out of the pen....but the league has long since been making adjustments.......they just don't work if he doesn't swing at the balls in the dirt and chest high.......and that's what he's learned to do.   But when umpires stopping calling strikes at his shins as they adjust to his strike zone that is going to help him.   Pitchers aren't comfortable throwing the ball where they need to get get Judge out.   It's not normal and they seem to almost inevitably make a lot of bad pitches against him.  His swing has remarkably few holes for such a big target.

 

A babip over .400 might be sustainable though because he is hitting the ball so hard that it can't be fielded.  Balls hit 119 mph are impossible to adjust to and even some of the at-em balls he hits are just going to get dropped by very good defenders because nobody has fielded balls hit that hard.   First time I remember that stat was with Jack Clark when he was with the Cardinals and he did it in a season where he didn't even hit .300.......because he was hitting the ball HARD.   Additionally, it's hard to pitch around Judge because the lineup is so loaded so he's going to keep getting pitches to square up.

 

Yankees lineup has two almost instant outs in it(Headley and Carter) and they still score runs like nobodies business........the Yankees have big prospects in waiting for those two spots.   It probably won't turn out as good as it seems........but this lineup could end up being 9 stars deep.   

 

As for being down on baseball.........they've earned that.   The strike followed by the steroid era.........wasn't a proud time.   But the quality of play in MLB is at an all-time high........never been so much young talent..........might be TWICE as many good young players in the league than there has ever been at any time before and their athleticism is off the charts.    Great time to be a fan of pro baseball and basketball..........just insane the amount of talent in those sports.  



#7 Johnny Hammersticks

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 06:22 PM

Dude is unreal. Absolute freak of nature.

#8 mead107

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 06:25 PM

I like him

#9 Captain_Quint

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 06:58 PM

If he keeps this up, he'll soon get the Bonds treatment and be walked 6 out of every 10 at bats.

They have a strong lineup, so it'll be hard to justify, but why throw this guy a pitch he can hit unless he starts slowing down?

#10 Kmart128

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 07:15 PM

Leading the triple crown as a rookie

#11 Kirby Jackson

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 07:36 PM

 
 
Yeah 55-60 HR pace and a .340 batting average isn't likely to be sustainable in a league with so many 95+ mph power arms coming out of the pen....but the league has long since been making adjustments.......they just don't work if he doesn't swing at the balls in the dirt and chest high.......and that's what he's learned to do.   But when umpires stopping calling strikes at his shins as they adjust to his strike zone that is going to help him.   Pitchers aren't comfortable throwing the ball where they need to get get Judge out.   It's not normal and they seem to almost inevitably make a lot of bad pitches against him.  His swing has remarkably few holes for such a big target.
 
A babip over .400 might be sustainable though because he is hitting the ball so hard that it can't be fielded.  Balls hit 119 mph are impossible to adjust to and even some of the at-em balls he hits are just going to get dropped by very good defenders because nobody has fielded balls hit that hard.   First time I remember that stat was with Jack Clark when he was with the Cardinals and he did it in a season where he didn't even hit .300.......because he was hitting the ball HARD.   Additionally, it's hard to pitch around Judge because the lineup is so loaded so he's going to keep getting pitches to square up.
 
Yankees lineup has two almost instant outs in it(Headley and Carter) and they still score runs like nobodies business........the Yankees have big prospects in waiting for those two spots.   It probably won't turn out as good as it seems........but this lineup could end up being 9 stars deep.   
 
As for being down on baseball.........they've earned that.   The strike followed by the steroid era.........wasn't a proud time.   But the quality of play in MLB is at an all-time high........never been so much young talent..........might be TWICE as many good young players in the league than there has ever been at any time before and their athleticism is off the charts.    Great time to be a fan of pro baseball and basketball..........just insane the amount of talent in those sports.  

GREAT post Badol!!

#12 DriveFor1Outta5

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 09:54 PM

 
 
Yeah 55-60 HR pace and a .340 batting average isn't likely to be sustainable in a league with so many 95+ mph power arms coming out of the pen....but the league has long since been making adjustments.......they just don't work if he doesn't swing at the balls in the dirt and chest high.......and that's what he's learned to do.   But when umpires stopping calling strikes at his shins as they adjust to his strike zone that is going to help him.   Pitchers aren't comfortable throwing the ball where they need to get get Judge out.   It's not normal and they seem to almost inevitably make a lot of bad pitches against him.  His swing has remarkably few holes for such a big target.
 
A babip over .400 might be sustainable though because he is hitting the ball so hard that it can't be fielded.  Balls hit 119 mph are impossible to adjust to and even some of the at-em balls he hits are just going to get dropped by very good defenders because nobody has fielded balls hit that hard.   First time I remember that stat was with Jack Clark when he was with the Cardinals and he did it in a season where he didn't even hit .300.......because he was hitting the ball HARD.   Additionally, it's hard to pitch around Judge because the lineup is so loaded so he's going to keep getting pitches to square up.
 
Yankees lineup has two almost instant outs in it(Headley and Carter) and they still score runs like nobodies business........the Yankees have big prospects in waiting for those two spots.   It probably won't turn out as good as it seems........but this lineup could end up being 9 stars deep.   
 
As for being down on baseball.........they've earned that.   The strike followed by the steroid era.........wasn't a proud time.   But the quality of play in MLB is at an all-time high........never been so much young talent..........might be TWICE as many good young players in the league than there has ever been at any time before and their athleticism is off the charts.    Great time to be a fan of pro baseball and basketball..........just insane the amount of talent in those sports.  

I need to preface my statement by saying that I love baseball. My issue with baseball is the lack of star power. Without question there is a ton of great young talent. Somehow that hasn't translated into creating star power. Baseball does little to create excitement. I don't ever feel like I'm watching an important event, at least not one that anyone else cares about.

Baseball has become a sort of niche sport followed by a select group of fans. I don't think I'll ever see anything as exciting as the Aaron Boone ALCS homer or the 2004 Red Sox ALCS win over the Yankees. It seemed like America still cared about baseball. Now Yankee Stadium has empty seats behind home plate. I love baseball. All of the great young talent make the game enjoyable to watch. Sadly some of that joy is lessened for me by the fact that baseball doesn't feel all that relevant. Water cooler baseball talk is mostly a thing of the past.

#13 jr1

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Posted 11 June 2017 - 10:32 PM

first basemen look like children standing next to him 



#14 horned dogs

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Posted 12 June 2017 - 07:53 AM

 

 

Yeah 55-60 HR pace and a .340 batting average isn't likely to be sustainable in a league with so many 95+ mph power arms coming out of the pen....but the league has long since been making adjustments.......they just don't work if he doesn't swing at the balls in the dirt and chest high.......and that's what he's learned to do.   But when umpires stopping calling strikes at his shins as they adjust to his strike zone that is going to help him.   Pitchers aren't comfortable throwing the ball where they need to get get Judge out.   It's not normal and they seem to almost inevitably make a lot of bad pitches against him.  His swing has remarkably few holes for such a big target.

 

A babip over .400 might be sustainable though because he is hitting the ball so hard that it can't be fielded.  Balls hit 119 mph are impossible to adjust to and even some of the at-em balls he hits are just going to get dropped by very good defenders because nobody has fielded balls hit that hard.   First time I remember that stat was with Jack Clark when he was with the Cardinals and he did it in a season where he didn't even hit .300.......because he was hitting the ball HARD.   Additionally, it's hard to pitch around Judge because the lineup is so loaded so he's going to keep getting pitches to square up.

 

Yankees lineup has two almost instant outs in it(Headley and Carter) and they still score runs like nobodies business........the Yankees have big prospects in waiting for those two spots.   It probably won't turn out as good as it seems........but this lineup could end up being 9 stars deep.   

 

As for being down on baseball.........they've earned that.   The strike followed by the steroid era.........wasn't a proud time.   But the quality of play in MLB is at an all-time high........never been so much young talent..........might be TWICE as many good young players in the league than there has ever been at any time before and their athleticism is off the charts.    Great time to be a fan of pro baseball and basketball..........just insane the amount of talent in those sports.  

I thought about the hitting it with a lot of velocity as he obviously does. Ala Stanton, Sano .I'm skeptical he will maintain his Babip of .432..... even over .400. Didn't do it in the minors. Last season in 95 PA he hit .282. His Babip at AAA in 700 PA was around .300 ...pretty normal. This is a sample size issue. It takes 700-800 balls in play for babip to stabilize, meaning just to get to half luck-half skill. If I'm betting he comes down ALOT at some point. 

 

He also has hit homeruns on 45.9% of his flyballs this year. That is pretty darn high.  I believe Ryan Howard had the only other season over 40%. Next closest is mid thirties.

 

Great start everyone. He hits prodigious homeruns, has hit line drives that are rockets, and as a Yankees fan I'm excited. However,  he WILL regress. A babip of .432 and 46% HR/FB is likely unsustainable. If it happens I'll be happy to be wrong. If I'm betting I'm guessing there is a substantial regression coming.


Edited by horned dogs, 12 June 2017 - 07:55 AM.


#15 joesixpack

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Posted 12 June 2017 - 08:08 AM

I thought about the hitting it with a lot of velocity as he obviously does. Ala Stanton, Sano .I'm skeptical he will maintain his Babip of .432..... even over .400. Didn't do it in the minors. Last season in 95 PA he hit .282. His Babip at AAA in 700 PA was around .300 ...pretty normal. This is a sample size issue. It takes 700-800 balls in play for babip to stabilize, meaning just to get to half luck-half skill. If I'm betting he comes down ALOT at some point. 

 

He also has hit homeruns on 45.9% of his flyballs this year. That is pretty darn high.  I believe Ryan Howard had the only other season over 40%. Next closest is mid thirties.

 

Great start everyone. He hits prodigious homeruns, has hit line drives that are rockets, and as a Yankees fan I'm excited. However,  he WILL regress. A babip of .432 and 46% HR/FB is likely unsustainable. If it happens I'll be happy to be wrong. If I'm betting I'm guessing there is a substantial regression coming.

 

Stay away from my cheerios with that pee.



#16 horned dogs

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:27 AM

*****UPDATE: July stats

BA.230 BABIP.310 HR/FB% down to 29% from mid 40s, Hard Hit% down from 51-37%, Line Drives down from 27-16%



#17 Pete

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 10:24 AM

Judge has come down to earth a little.  He still hits tape measure homers, just not as frequently.  Sanchez has been on fire.  If you add his numbers from last year- his numbers are almost Judge like.  And Sanchez is a natural born red sox killer


Edited by Pete, 06 September 2017 - 10:25 AM.


#18 LeviF91

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Posted 15 September 2017 - 10:54 AM

Six home runs, 1.309 OPS in his last ten.  Hopefully he's finally shaking off this slump.