Jump to content


Photo

2017 Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings

Football Outsiders DVOA

  • Please log in to reply
43 replies to this topic

#1 26CornerBlitz

26CornerBlitz

    Show me the baby

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 59,395 posts

Posted 03 October 2017 - 07:54 PM

@fboutsiders

Week 4 DVOA ratings are here, with first look at opponent adjustments and schedule strength. @Chiefs still No. 1. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-4-dvoa-ratings

 

33253wg.jpg

 

We also have updated FO playoff odds. @Steelers and @Chiefs far ahead of rest of the AFC but NFC is very tight! http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

 

16l0n40.jpg


Edited by 26CornerBlitz, 03 October 2017 - 07:54 PM.


#2 Watkins101

Watkins101

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 318 posts

Posted 03 October 2017 - 07:58 PM

So we have the third best chance of the playoffs in the AFC as of right now?

#3 HappyDays

HappyDays

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,411 posts

Posted 03 October 2017 - 08:13 PM

-We have played the 14th hardest schedule so far, and we have the 3rd easiest schedule remaining.

-We have higher playoff odds than the Patriots. But they've played the hardest schedule so far, and have the 8th easiest schedule remaining.

-Our defense is #1 but it's the worst #1 defense after 4 weeks of all time.

-Our pass offense is 11th, our rush offense is 25th. Who saw that coming?

-Tyrod Taylor is 9th in QB DVOA.

-Jacksonville has the best pass defense and the worst run defense. Amazing.

-EJ Gaines is 4th overall in CB success rate (don't know what Tre White is at, they mentioned Gaines's offhand in that article but the rest of the stat can only be seen by subscribers)

#4 26CornerBlitz

26CornerBlitz

    Show me the baby

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 59,395 posts

Posted 10 October 2017 - 09:34 PM

@fboutsiders

New DVOA Ratings: @Chiefs way ahead at No. 1, lots of sort-of good/average teams, and then some awful ones.

http://www.footballo...-5-dvoa-ratings

 

amp7vk.jpg

 

@fboutsiders

New playoff odds dominated by @Chiefs, in part because of what looks like an unprecedented 1.5-game conference lead.

http://www.footballo...ats/playoffodds

 

70j614.jpg


Edited by 26CornerBlitz, 10 October 2017 - 09:44 PM.


#5 GoBills808

GoBills808

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,530 posts

Posted 10 October 2017 - 09:43 PM

-Our pass offense is 11th, our rush offense is 25th. Who saw that coming?
 

Not me, but that DVOA would consider a pass offense ranked 28th in attempts, 18th in completion %, 21st in Y/A, =21st in TDs, taken the 4th most sacks, 19th in ANY/A, and 29th in YPG to be the 11th ranked...it's just another reason for me to ignore the stat.



#6 C.Biscuit97

C.Biscuit97

    Ladies' Man

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,003 posts

Posted 10 October 2017 - 09:53 PM

Tyrod should buy all stocks of DVOA and QBR.

#7 Sammy Watkins' Rib

Sammy Watkins' Rib

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 444 posts

Posted 10 October 2017 - 10:38 PM

LOL at Cleveland. 0% across the board



#8 GunnerBill

GunnerBill

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,237 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 06:18 AM

Tyrod should buy all stocks of DVOA and QBR.


He will be wishing he hadn't thrown that pick and instead had scrambled on 4th down and come up valiantly just short of the sticks. Would have done wonders for his QBR.

#9 dave mcbride

dave mcbride

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15,124 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 06:40 AM

Not me, but that DVOA would consider a pass offense ranked 28th in attempts, 18th in completion %, 21st in Y/A, =21st in TDs, taken the 4th most sacks, 19th in ANY/A, and 29th in YPG to be the 11th ranked...it's just another reason for me to ignore the stat.


Not true. The Bills are ranked 23rd in offense: 28th in rushing and 18th in passing. The low number of turovers and SOS accounts for the relatively high pass ranking. Taylor is ranked 19th among qbs. The Bills top qualifying receiver, Zay Jones, is ranked 71st and Matthews, who doesn't have enough targets to qualify for the main board, has solid numbers (scroll down). http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/wr

Edited by dave mcbride, 11 October 2017 - 06:42 AM.


#10 Jasovon

Jasovon

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 695 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:01 AM

We have the best chance in a long time to make the playoffs, can we capitalise?



#11 HappyDays

HappyDays

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,411 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:18 AM

Not me, but that DVOA would consider a pass offense ranked 28th in attempts, 18th in completion %, 21st in Y/A, =21st in TDs, taken the 4th most sacks, 19th in ANY/A, and 29th in YPG to be the 11th ranked...it's just another reason for me to ignore the stat.


Why would you reply to my post from last week, before the Bengals game? The numbers changed. Pass offense is 18th now. Tyrod is 19th in DYAR and 18th in DVOA. The rush offense is now 28th.

The only reason you would ignore this stat is you don't understand it. YPG won't factor in at all because DVOA is a per play stat. Our pass game ranking in DVOA is a little higher than it is in the other passing stats because we've faced tougher defenses (8th hardest offensive schedule) which DVOA accounts for.

Here's a positive - the Bills have faced the 11th hardest schedule so far, but the remaining schedule is the 4th easiest. We're still slightly more likely to make the playoffs than the Patriots are. We also have better playoff odds than any of our wildcard competition:

http://www.footballo...ats/playoffodds

And these playoff odds uses their DAVE stat which is partly based on the Football Outsiders preseason projections (currently weighted at 30%), so we actually have better odds than they list because their preseason projections for us were poor.

Edited by HappyDays, 11 October 2017 - 08:18 AM.


#12 dneveu

dneveu

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,138 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:22 AM

He will be wishing he hadn't thrown that pick and instead had scrambled on 4th down and come up valiantly just short of the sticks. Would have done wonders for his QBR.

 

They weight the plays in DVOA - so a 9 yard run on 4th and 10 isn't a positive play and a 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 is a positive play.  Factors in the opponent as well. 



#13 HappyDays

HappyDays

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,411 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:23 AM

Tyrod should buy all stocks of DVOA and QBR.


QBR has the highest win correlation of any passing stat:

http://www.footballp...arterback-play/

It actually correlates even better with predicting future wins than it does with past wins.

#14 dave mcbride

dave mcbride

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15,124 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:41 AM

 

They weight the plays in DVOA - so a 9 yard run on 4th and 10 isn't a positive play and a 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 is a positive play.  Factors in the opponent as well. 

yup.



#15 Stank_Nasty

Stank_Nasty

    Practice Squad

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 127 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:54 AM

 

They weight the plays in DVOA - so a 9 yard run on 4th and 10 isn't a positive play and a 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 is a positive play.  Factors in the opponent as well. 

 

QBR has the highest win correlation of any passing stat:

http://www.footballp...arterback-play/

It actually correlates even better with predicting future wins than it does with past wins.

 

this will fall on deaf ears..... minds are made up.



#16 HappyDays

HappyDays

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,411 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 09:05 AM

 
 
this will fall on deaf ears..... minds are made up.


Typed ranks 16th in QBR right now which isn't really good enough anyways, so there's no reason for the Tyrod sucks crowd to pretend it isn't a good stat.

#17 LABILLBACKER

LABILLBACKER

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 956 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 03:13 PM

QBR...DVOA...all I care about is 4th qtr comebacks. That's where he fails miserably.

#18 Big C

Big C

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,629 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 07:13 PM

QBR...DVOA...all I care about is 4th qtr comebacks. That's where he fails miserably.


Not trying to say he's great in this regard, but I believe strongly that he had miserable luck in a couple of his opportunities. This year's Carolina game spoiled by a questionable OPI and a missed connection with Zay, Miami last year spoiled by some garbage defense in the 4th quarter and OT, Seattle last year with some questionable goal line playcalls. Tyrod can't be held faultless but he has put his team in a position to win multiple times and the team couldn't close.

#19 GoBills808

GoBills808

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,530 posts

Posted 11 October 2017 - 08:17 PM

QBR has the highest win correlation of any passing stat:

http://www.footballp...arterback-play/

It actually correlates even better with predicting future wins than it does with past wins.

DVOA says that on 3rd and 20 from the 50, a 19 yard run (or pass) to put you in field goal range on fourth down is not a successful play.


Edited by GoBills808, 11 October 2017 - 08:17 PM.


#20 HappyDays

HappyDays

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,411 posts

Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:25 AM

DVOA says that on 3rd and 20 from the 50, a 19 yard run (or pass) to put you in field goal range on fourth down is not a successful play.


Okay? That scenario must account for like .01% of total plays. Do you understand statistics at all? It's starting to sound like willful ignorance on your part.





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Football Outsiders, DVOA