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2017 Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings

Football Outsiders DVOA

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#41 dave mcbride

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:57 PM

Talking to the wrong guy.


Am I? Not that you're over the top, but it seems to me that you've been fairly critical of FO throughout this thread. I personally think it's pretty darn good and better than, say, pff. Some sites aand methods are better than others. Maybe I'm misreading your intent, however.

Edited by dave mcbride, 12 October 2017 - 06:58 PM.


#42 GoBills808

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:01 PM

Am I? Not that you're over the top, but it seems to me that you've been fairly critical of FO throughout this thread. I personally think it's pretty darn good and better than, say, pff. Some sites aand methods are better than others. Maybe I'm misreading your intent, however.

Oh I'm plenty critical of DVOA in general, but I've acknowledged its usefulness in certain areas. You and I are in agreement (I believe) in objecting to DVOA ratings of quarterbacks in 2017, and I was just using a few examples to illustrate a point.



#43 dave mcbride

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:32 PM

Oh I'm plenty critical of DVOA in general, but I've acknowledged its usefulness in certain areas. You and I are in agreement (I believe) in objecting to DVOA ratings of quarterbacks in 2017, and I was just using a few examples to illustrate a point.


Fair enough.

#44 CanadianFan

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 07:21 AM

How the F is Jacksonville #3? Makes no sense!



#45 26CornerBlitz

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Posted Yesterday, 10:45 AM

@fboutsiders

.@Chiefs still No. 1, but parity dominates the new DVOA ratings, now posted at Football Outsiders.

http://www.footballo...-6-dvoa-ratings

 

21e18w9.jpg

 

@fboutsiders

FO playoff odds now updated. KC still our SB favorite, with an 11% chance of the "Andy Reid Reunion" Super Bowl.

http://www.footballo...ats/playoffodds

 

2s024qr.jpg

 

 



#46 Scott7975

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Posted Yesterday, 11:30 AM

Stafford is a better quarterback playing better at quarterback than Taylor is. Pointing to a statistic that says otherwise is YOUR bias, not mine, when 99% of reasonable people would agree with my assessment over yours.
 
I was obviously talking about yards. If you don't think 20% of any statistic has a huge effect I don't know what to tell you. 


It's not 20% of a statistic. 20% of the games but not statistic. If a defense gives up 250 yards passing on 3 games and 1 game gives up 180 yards passing it's not going to move the needle very far. It would only change the average by 17.5 yards.

#47 GoBills808

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Posted Yesterday, 12:08 PM

It's not 20% of a statistic. 20% of the games but not statistic. If a defense gives up 250 yards passing on 3 games and 1 game gives up 180 yards passing it's not going to move the needle very far. It would only change the average by 17.5 yards.

There had been 5 games from which they compiled DVOA when I wrote that. So 1 game out of 5 would be 20% of the games and responsible for 20% of the DVOA calculation.

 

It may not seem like much, but 17 yards would be the difference (in NFL passing defense, for example, which uses YPG) between a team being ranked 9th and in the top ten defenses, and being ranked 16th and dead on league average. One game out of five absolutely has an outsize impact...again, it's 20% of the accumulated statistics at the time it was calculated, as opposed to 6.25% which would be one game out of a 16 game season. So in essence you could say one game out of five is over three times as meaningful to DVOA when calculated through week 6 as opposed to week 16, so you need to look at outliers in that light IMO.



#48 HappyDays

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Posted Yesterday, 12:13 PM

There had been 5 games from which they compiled DVOA when I wrote that. So 1 game out of 5 would be 20% of the games and responsible for 20% of the DVOA calculation.
 
It may not seem like much, but 17 yards would be the difference (in NFL passing defense, for example, which uses YPG) between a team being ranked 9th and in the top ten defenses, and being ranked 16th and dead on league average. One game out of five absolutely has an outsize impact...again, it's 20% of the accumulated statistics at the time it was calculated, as opposed to 6.25% which would be one game out of a 16 game season. So in essence you could say one game out of five is over three times as meaningful to DVOA when calculated through week 6 as opposed to week 16, so you need to look at outliers in that light IMO.


Btw Matt Stafford just had another bad game and now ranks 24th in DVOA. What do you think about that?

#49 GoBills808

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Posted Yesterday, 12:28 PM

Btw Matt Stafford just had another bad game and now ranks 24th in DVOA. What do you think about that?

Well, if I had an agenda to make a QB seems like he's better than he is I'd make the de rigueur arguments we're all familiar with. Since I don't, I'm capable of saying he played a mediocre football game.







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